tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-71779627499899257882024-03-13T11:31:25.331+08:00YOU'LL NEVER WALK ALONE投資路上永不會獨行,YNWA!You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.comBlogger292125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-13286235904799985032021-08-17T07:42:00.004+08:002021-08-17T07:42:35.308+08:00網誌搬遷<p> 於blogspot 分享文章多年,現因於投資分享上作出更多的動作,把網誌大裝修並移至wordpress, 新地點如下:</p><p><br /></p><p><a href="https://investdataflake.com/">Invest Data Flake – – 以數據聚焦增長股</a></p><p><br /></p><p>首先文章是分析UPST及DDOG,請大家繼續支持,謝謝。</p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com2tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-49699096711179000432021-06-21T12:04:00.004+08:002021-06-21T13:53:07.226+08:00加息預期落差 增長股形勢向好<p> </p><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0px 0px 0px 40px; padding: 0px; text-align: left;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Sea (SE US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 13.6%</div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Tesla (TSLA US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 12.3%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Crowdstrike (CRWD US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 11.8%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Square (SQ US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 9.3%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Cloudfare (NET US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 8.9%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Upstart (UPST US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 8.1%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Microsoft (MSFT US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 7.4%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Himax (HIMX US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 6.4%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Datadog (DDOG US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 5.9%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Nvidia (NVDA US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 5.7%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Peloton (PTON US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 3.3%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Carnival (CCL US)<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 3.1%</div></div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;">Cash<span style="white-space: pre;"> </span> 4.2%</div></div></blockquote><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div><br /></div><div><br /></div><div style="text-align: left;"><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:2.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:8.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:10.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(4.5%)</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 最近一個月投資市場出現利好增長股投資者的微妙變化,增長股又再跑出。上周美國聯儲局會議,表示23年底前要加至少兩次息,坊間解讀為加息預期升溫。但資本市場的反應又是完全另一回事: 美國10年期債息急速回落,舊經濟股(尤其是金融股)顯著轉弱,反之科技股,尤其是中小市值增長股重回強勢。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 頗合理的解讀是資本市場於今年上半年已反映加息預期,一旦</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">聯儲局會議所釋放的加息預期不是太進取, 在預期落差下,引發了新一輪sector rotation, 資金重回增長股。After all, 加息及通脹可能被講到街知港聞,出現反高潮並不奇。以目前的momentum看,這次sector rotation應可繼續一段時間。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJOncZC_rqnLZKvKYIS39V2ccxJurieKr0RmakeA1x0rguZdXMPF3eA_hR8OEn6KYmKmgyYUx9nu1SEY9nOiMwQuMQODScAFxiBqxl92XmSDZoFe3NgKphvReL3adjqLbgxnKfVRT-xJY/s1613/us10y.png" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="816" data-original-width="1613" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgJOncZC_rqnLZKvKYIS39V2ccxJurieKr0RmakeA1x0rguZdXMPF3eA_hR8OEn6KYmKmgyYUx9nu1SEY9nOiMwQuMQODScAFxiBqxl92XmSDZoFe3NgKphvReL3adjqLbgxnKfVRT-xJY/s320/us10y.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></div><div style="background-color: white;">- 因應市場口味的轉變,早前把增長股再提升至很大比重。這個也反映投資要適當尊重市場,投資策略要因應情況改變,無一成不變的 winning formula; 尤其是合理解讀及消息往往是要在走勢出現後才浮面。原本的想法是在增長股及價值股之間取一個平衡,但最近一,兩個星期<span face="arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif">舊經濟股的走勢開始不對勁並顯著轉弱,和增長股重拾動力成頗大對比,便逐步為此作對應。觀乎當晚</span><span face="arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">聯儲局議息後的增長股的表現,更確認此輪sector (re-)rotation。</span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white;"><span face="arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333;">- 這個月的投資表現算是有寸進,如再早些加碼增長股的話其實可再好。除了受</span><span face="arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif" style="color: #333333; font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股拖累外,個別股份如BNTX 及 UPST也拖低投資組合表現。尤其是UPST,對此股的基本面有信心,但股價走勢太波動及難觸模。惟望消化這一輪禁售期解凍的沽壓後,股價走勢可明朗化。</span></div></div></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com51tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-11464433521149874532021-06-03T14:33:00.003+08:002021-06-03T15:37:17.342+08:00CRWD snapshot<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO-6Oi88a_5mRvGk5oT9rdean3M8uCq6AgYnSlG9Ii5AAHhsZZpvpHy0-P01Hg1zHScSjmEqgQY-7RIJY4e29Og43pyiN56nbumj4vqSAaWLcwhh4s6gzL3mNCNoWFab8k-aDEM8rrwvA/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="309" data-original-width="856" height="145" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhO-6Oi88a_5mRvGk5oT9rdean3M8uCq6AgYnSlG9Ii5AAHhsZZpvpHy0-P01Hg1zHScSjmEqgQY-7RIJY4e29Og43pyiN56nbumj4vqSAaWLcwhh4s6gzL3mNCNoWFab8k-aDEM8rrwvA/w400-h145/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>- CrowdStrike (CRWD)是美股增長型投資者中,最多持有作為核心持股的公司。以上這個季度的key financials 可看出原因: (一) 按季度及年度的營業額保持高增長,(二) 己進入breakeven 階段,利潤率擴大</p><p>- CRWD 是從事雲端防毒軟件,核心競爭優勢在於使用AI 偵察及防衛 cyber attack,隨著處理用戶的大數據增長,在deep learning 下防衛效能提升,從而吸引更多用戶及再加強其競爭優勢</p><p>- 公司將於周四晚收市後公佈季績,公司的營業額季度guidance上限是2.9億美元,過往季度營業額可高於guidance 上限4%至10%。假設今次季績可高於guidance 的上限6%,今次季度revenue 可達3.1億美元,按年度增長維持在74%,按季度增長加速至17%</p><p><br /></p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR9zNWCbRA1KsaHT0lYIRiThMrEpXrzHt0X_8jnGmva4GS1MB5GhWX1X9XUlkvAIOVxOuZrWep3f4c8bZ4RJh1CmquiVMSfBw3qsyNv11o-WYHgLIM3kgDMhPF4KDb1NXGGIY6DrLJOq8/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="253" data-original-width="786" height="129" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhR9zNWCbRA1KsaHT0lYIRiThMrEpXrzHt0X_8jnGmva4GS1MB5GhWX1X9XUlkvAIOVxOuZrWep3f4c8bZ4RJh1CmquiVMSfBw3qsyNv11o-WYHgLIM3kgDMhPF4KDb1NXGGIY6DrLJOq8/w400-h129/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>- 這組KPI精要地反映: (一) 客戶增長數目長在加快,(二) 更多客戶採用更多的模組(modules) 。基於這兩點,預計公司未來很大機會維持高增長</p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-68839630370692932702021-05-28T15:06:00.000+08:002021-05-28T15:06:42.721+08:00增長股回勇<p> 投資組合update:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuimDCG5AAkkLJD9Na_1-TJtWgt2oUiPw7_2W4M8UAvPKHl4HVFPTzTnBd9IITVgbIjwRgINSxtWSHbo68HA6w7z5F1qKg8XOFtEVIJJB1TQB04KMw62lCQlD6jb_mVtsQgUJVrquZ5ko/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="273" data-original-width="290" height="301" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhuimDCG5AAkkLJD9Na_1-TJtWgt2oUiPw7_2W4M8UAvPKHl4HVFPTzTnBd9IITVgbIjwRgINSxtWSHbo68HA6w7z5F1qKg8XOFtEVIJJB1TQB04KMw62lCQlD6jb_mVtsQgUJVrquZ5ko/w320-h301/image.png" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:1.0%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:6.6%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:11.8%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(9.8%)</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 慶幸地上篇文章正好是今年投資回報的底部。5月下旬又回復數個月沒見的順手風景況,最主要是因鐘擺效應下,資金又重新追棒增長股,帶動portfolio表現恢復跑嬴指數,以及ytd回報浮面。始終長線而言,仍是成長股較吸引。增長股的波幅較大,2至4月份投資回報遭受重創並跑輸指數,惟自5月中開始復又輕易</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">跑嬴指數。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 5月中見到增長股拒絕繼續下跌,以及美國債息在通脹回升下沒有再創新高,已感受到今輪科技股的拋售潮告一段落。隨著科技股走勢逐步好轉,確認自己睇法,倉位</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">逐步提升至目前的略有杆槓狀態。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 仍會保留價值股或傳統產業股有一定的比重。在</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">順境時增長股可輕易帶來超額利潤,但這幾個月的sector rotation可以看到,他們一旦調整回落可以很急勁。自問未有足夠身手應付走勢逆轉的波動,所以仍會保留一定比重舊經濟股以作平衡風險之用,尤其是資金成本難再如20年那麼低廉。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 目前的投資組合比較分散,應該要再集中一些。科技股的細分板塊方面,應會集中在 Fintech (UPST, SQ ), network security (CRWD, NET) 以及大數據 (SNOW, NVDA) 這三大主題之上。</span></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com17tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-16896615285513394952021-05-14T19:05:00.001+08:002021-05-14T19:06:25.274+08:00重創<p> 投資組合update:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibSdj4pO9VmqnNxu5tqf-hVLaiIpbjcYuSxdz_5Vk4rfXUvV76L9gWOkU4wngeVoj6hjJ3WIoJfpBwFsJ7n_BmNx1d1rrXKaP61FyD8Dik8JkyAFRH5aemN5WGhbt5NGlRQmvvfsRmdRc/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="171" data-original-width="290" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEibSdj4pO9VmqnNxu5tqf-hVLaiIpbjcYuSxdz_5Vk4rfXUvV76L9gWOkU4wngeVoj6hjJ3WIoJfpBwFsJ7n_BmNx1d1rrXKaP61FyD8Dik8JkyAFRH5aemN5WGhbt5NGlRQmvvfsRmdRc/w400-h236/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:(10.1%)</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:1.8%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:9.5%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(20%)</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 自上月更新網誌後,投資表現慘遭重創,這大個半月的下滑是自19年第三季以來最差勁的投資表現。究其原因,是在經濟復甦及通脹重燃預期下,股票市場的sector rotation終上演狼來了,由增長股轉往價值股(或舊經濟股)的趨勢加劇。美股指數穩步上升,但很多去年表現亮麗的增長股卻自今年初高位跌了20%至30%有多。</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 我已有提高現金比重及逐步把資金投往傳統產業股,但避險能力仍是不夠。成長股一旦轉勢及被洗倉,可以跌得很兇很急。我減持的步伐不足以抵禦成長股今次的大幅下調。其中的因素出於性格,我很難狠心一下子把成長股全部換掉成價值股,我在網誌的留言更新也看得出我的轉倉是逐步來的,慢慢把<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股比重調高</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">。尤其是根據以往經驗,成長股在</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">急跌後,往往會來一個急勁的反彈; 所以一下子轉倉太急也會冒上錯失反彈的股險。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 這些去年熱門的成長股己跌了很多,是否價值回復吸引還視乎息口。他們很多已陸續breakeven,但預測PE值仍達百多二百多倍。若資金成本繼續低企,可繼續支持高估值; 反之,這些股份目前的跌幅仍未足夠。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 此外,我平常的看市焦點太集中在成長股之上,如早日多留意其他sector的動向,從宏觀看應能更早洞悉今次sector rotation的大勢,並再早些行動。此外,仍需克服按下沽出這個制的心理障礙,己盡力按紀律行事,但忍痛作出止蝕沽出時,很多時人仍拖泥帶水,錯失先機。</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 看這兩幅圖,兩個通脹預期指標並無隨坊間通脹炒作再創新高。我目前有些懷疑<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">通脹重臨的嚴重性,目前的通脹提升可能是短期因素。當然,最後仍以適當尊重市場為依歸:</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">美國10年期債息:</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtbLUiq8_eKMZU5AL4PKGlxIhbg1D1mC2TA0CFy4XZPj-mYpTVUc8aAWQAWJN5WOM6BGDnTQxwX1nKxBIaOSzYEgkLudxH7szwXWFKMLPCluqtkDDTYov5BIW59FMlULIdCptk53DWKCY/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="870" data-original-width="1614" height="215" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgtbLUiq8_eKMZU5AL4PKGlxIhbg1D1mC2TA0CFy4XZPj-mYpTVUc8aAWQAWJN5WOM6BGDnTQxwX1nKxBIaOSzYEgkLudxH7szwXWFKMLPCluqtkDDTYov5BIW59FMlULIdCptk53DWKCY/w400-h215/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">美國</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #202124; font-size: 16px;">Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (即類似香港的通脹掛勾債券)</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgco52Wtm-I99SlMDVTNS6sSellRajIL6LWyBZY88W8C4EpbX-WVPkFMA4pE5-JoJFhiik_ImJtvdcGSaMcXmg-AppZ_N1A6lPs3JhezPiSItChCkED8eSCcbZVACVL77TaZBdosjKa5o0/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="894" data-original-width="1625" height="220" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgco52Wtm-I99SlMDVTNS6sSellRajIL6LWyBZY88W8C4EpbX-WVPkFMA4pE5-JoJFhiik_ImJtvdcGSaMcXmg-AppZ_N1A6lPs3JhezPiSItChCkED8eSCcbZVACVL77TaZBdosjKa5o0/w400-h220/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 經這一輪的投資組合調配後,投資組合在價值及增長之間趨向平衡,應能為portfolio回報止血。相信及希望這個已是今年的低位。目前心態上要忌欲速不達,不用太急於追回回報。不言而喻目前仍持有的成長股是最具信心的一批,實在不欲全數沽出。尤其是Tesla,目前的持股比重雖仍達10%,但其實目前的持股成本其實很低,在沽出逾半股數很仍可放心把這些餘下小部份股份作較長線持有。</span></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com36tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-30620223890683507782021-04-22T18:48:00.001+08:002021-04-22T18:48:35.293+08:00繼續苦戰<p> </p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7vFbQO8ncZO04jN9FGYujLDyplzN_qieaxxdhwmYDeBPY6puqCoC_7e0ll6Q8TuVd-v7yz6jQ6fByp3fPM50PHER0R8C3jAZUnZ8zmrk2ZxxGfXidessWm5_r2GLwUmOCwEmx4ZbF71g/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="188" data-original-width="290" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi7vFbQO8ncZO04jN9FGYujLDyplzN_qieaxxdhwmYDeBPY6puqCoC_7e0ll6Q8TuVd-v7yz6jQ6fByp3fPM50PHER0R8C3jAZUnZ8zmrk2ZxxGfXidessWm5_r2GLwUmOCwEmx4ZbF71g/w400-h259/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:4.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:8.2%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:11.1%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(2.1%)</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US">-<span style="font-family: "Times New Roman"; font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;"> </span></span><!--[endif]--><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自</span><span lang="EN-US">2</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月中以來,投資回報再度遇上逆境。仿如回到</span><span lang="EN-US">19</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的境況,投資回報難有寸進,並被指數拋離。要檢討的話不是著眼於選股及交易技巧,這兩個月的投資表現轉為大落後,原因很簡單,是因增長股經</span><span lang="EN-US">20</span><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">年的超額回報後;在估值考量下,市場轉而追棒大市值科技股,疫情復甦股及所謂的舊經濟股等。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">- 其實在投資策略上已作出對應,有適量減持增長股及分散投資至</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股,所以year to date回報又比ARK基金以及美股成長型投資KOL的表現為佳。但問題是對</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股不熟又玩不慣,曾買入的JPM, RIO, BA, CCL 等,拉勻是微蝕收場,只是能制約投資組合未致於太集中高增長股之上。反之</span><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股中的REITs,消費股及公用股等,原來是領導界別但自己卻錯過。</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 美股的債券息率終見頂回落,但增長股表現仍是參差,只有個別股份回復強勢。長期而言的確增長股有很大機會跑贏,但當下市況仍是維持原本策略,心態上不要太進取以及在投資組合上作出某程度的平衡。</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: 新細明體, serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;"><br /></span></p></div><p><br /></p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com60tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-70794452847586929142021-03-18T18:50:00.001+08:002021-03-18T18:50:26.427+08:00陷入苦戰<p> 投資組合:</p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU5B_x_DE_Hri4phnjjjLofVQirr1umhDDUX684yzvBocjotBy_NB_m4NJ9PDoaFelzdSz_SYCGVp7cVOZ_vkB886t2_P3t70vxxDhLDIYQrOh9fE2yymi7x2Wi4cwZ29-43aZTb9NPlA/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="222" data-original-width="290" height="306" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEjU5B_x_DE_Hri4phnjjjLofVQirr1umhDDUX684yzvBocjotBy_NB_m4NJ9PDoaFelzdSz_SYCGVp7cVOZ_vkB886t2_P3t70vxxDhLDIYQrOh9fE2yymi7x2Wi4cwZ29-43aZTb9NPlA/w400-h306/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><blockquote style="border: none; margin: 0 0 0 40px; padding: 0px;"><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><br /></div></div></blockquote><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:3.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:4.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:5.8%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:2.4%</span></div><p><br /></p><p>- 因預期環球經濟復甦,美債息率抽升令科技股大幅調整,ytd投資回報由2月中20%跌至3月初最低負6.5%。目前投資回報回復正數,略落後於納指,但略高於ARK 基金,今年投資旅程陷入苦戰。對比早前科技股慘遭血洗,以本身偏重增長的投資風格而言,目前和benchmark大致同步尚可接受。</p><p>- 回顧自2月中科技股大幅回落的撤退決定,基本上正確。但錯在無沽出第一持股TSLA。其一原因是2020年Tesla 大型上升行情時,多次因中短期走勢而減持TSLA,隨後每次也因股價很快回復升勢而要高位補回,這些錯誤沽出經驗令投資操作上很不願意沽出此第一持股。此外,目前TSLA的持股成本很低,都是在去年3/4月份股市回復升勢時買入,所以影響到沽出的迫切性不高。</p><p>- 再回顧沽出決定,不用太執於所技術指標或形態。走勢唔多對路,尤其是於高位波幅擴大下高開低收,或走勢顯著弱於同類公司或指數,已足以沽出第一注,不用等太多確認訊號。</p><p>- 即使不會這麼快"收水"及加息,但在實體經濟開始從疫情恢復下,美國國債上升是個中期趨勢,可以預期類似2月底3月初的科技股大型震倉會再出現。投資策略要作出一些調整,首先心態上不應太進取,在資金成本上升下,不要預期科技股可如去年般,輕易有翻倍回報。投資組合要預留一些現金,或至少避免槓桿; 投資組合要在科技股及傳統股份上取得平衡,不要如去年般一面倒偏向科技股。此外,不要太刻意捕捉sector rotation,總之盡量保持平衡; 新舊經濟之間的資金交替多數會在一個區間上落,因一時的市場 overact 而衝動地跟隨走勢,容易做錯決定。</p><p>- 買入傳統股份以分散風險的策略正確,但買入礦業股 Rio Tinto 目前看來是失敗交易。若想以傳統股份以對沖債息上升的風險的話,還是直接提高金融股比例更有效,因金融股直接受惠倩息上升,可對沖科技股受累債息上升令估值下跌的風險。反之其他傳統股份則要受其他變數影響。</p><p>- 科技股的選股取向也要檢視。隨著疫情結束在望,from home 類別股份再難領導科技股的升幅。Fintech (SQ, UPST, MELI), AI/IoT/5G (TWLO, PLTR, NVDA)等較大機會跑出。剛沽出SE 及補回CRWD,除了短線股價動力的考慮外,前者仍處燒錢階段而後者己錄得盈利,在資金成本回升下投資者對燒錢階段的公司容忍度會降低。</p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com47tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-38886051696277075862021-03-01T19:11:00.004+08:002021-03-01T19:11:59.903+08:00美國增長股估值更新@1 March<div><br /></div><div><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggONc5w2Ts0sdqrckrCUi_Z7DzKntvioPeTayMXwDVD7P9PvrNRqYSyQkyIhyphenhyphenydTcEvuSL5Di20MolscMPFb3dg1kQIQXy1c9JWMC6z03nwFzQsNDh-7isp8nMANRQeUZmA4P3qKyjpNw/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="777" data-original-width="834" height="372" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEggONc5w2Ts0sdqrckrCUi_Z7DzKntvioPeTayMXwDVD7P9PvrNRqYSyQkyIhyphenhyphenydTcEvuSL5Di20MolscMPFb3dg1kQIQXy1c9JWMC6z03nwFzQsNDh-7isp8nMANRQeUZmA4P3qKyjpNw/w400-h372/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><div><br /></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com27tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-84003321201554141002021-02-17T19:15:00.000+08:002021-02-17T19:15:05.378+08:00稍為停滯的2月<p> Latest portfolio: </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTA5kbUI7Q1G0u-gNz40L74pm90g25rGI05iWmUhz7kx2R4mi4BW_fPOWAsZjegvccMmQYlAJcDvx1WX3XlBvDLtya-U6bfAhhVE_QHAccqw607QnSdn5LRiMeKJJNLKgBps7e4ijBAaY/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="205" data-original-width="290" height="283" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhTA5kbUI7Q1G0u-gNz40L74pm90g25rGI05iWmUhz7kx2R4mi4BW_fPOWAsZjegvccMmQYlAJcDvx1WX3XlBvDLtya-U6bfAhhVE_QHAccqw607QnSdn5LRiMeKJJNLKgBps7e4ijBAaY/w400-h283/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:19.0%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:9.0%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:4.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:24.6%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 今年美股反而跑輸中港股市。這個投資回報本身不算失禮,但和今年熱炒港股及中概股的比較,實在差一大截。踏入2月份,投資表現停滯不前,未能再進一步拋離納指,其中原因是受TSLA拖累。Tesla 剛公佈的財報未能beat expectation,毛利率和預期有落差; 再加上晶片短缺對公司的生產也可能構成影響力; 本應減持。未能執行多少是情意結因素,尤其是過去一年多次沽出Tesla後股價見底回升,後又要高位補回的經驗。</div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 終以ETF的形式涉足比特幣,保住了今個月的投資回報。當然最好方法還是透過binance交易bitcoin、因ETF未能跟足Bitcoin升勢。此外,跟風短炒一段EH,以及受惠經濟重啟和Bitcoin的SQ也拉高了今個月回報。但的確很多增長股踏入2月份上升動力減弱、除非業綪很標青的如PINS,公佈<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">業綪後多數是獲利回吐。</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 隨著大規模疫苗注射陸續展開,實體經濟復甦在望。注意到美國債息己升回去年2月份武肺環球大爆發前的水平,此也可能反映通脹預期再臨。昨天美股科技股單日轉向回落頗大機會是因債息上升之故。債息告別超低水平,對高估值高增長股份不利。除了剛買入的BA外,也會留意其他<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">疫情復甦股的機會。</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 今年首兩個月投資回報尚算合理。但逾接近3月份是便要更保守,因最近把多年來的投資紀錄以月度拆開來看,3月份是其中最差的一年,尤其是若首2個月投資回報好的,3月份往往有較大幅度回度。汲取以往historical pattern的經驗,目前更應準備好以守為主,應付3月份頗有機會的低潮期。</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcvBZXhu5p1m0x31jYiYTe_48LQ-YBWYHJNaeg7w_ikFW3iAV2CaXes79rAxqcYvdjA6yd-r_m3dZehdwtMECF9ODwvx0a3Ri0iF27ARDCpvpLp6ATwT1ezDWXMMa1MliaO0gyXoYWN0Q/s969/us+10+y+bond+yield.png" imageanchor="1" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img border="0" data-original-height="969" data-original-width="750" height="320" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgcvBZXhu5p1m0x31jYiYTe_48LQ-YBWYHJNaeg7w_ikFW3iAV2CaXes79rAxqcYvdjA6yd-r_m3dZehdwtMECF9ODwvx0a3Ri0iF27ARDCpvpLp6ATwT1ezDWXMMa1MliaO0gyXoYWN0Q/s320/us+10+y+bond+yield.png" /></a></div><br /><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com26tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-71910697983385347102021-02-03T19:10:00.004+08:002021-02-04T09:06:45.812+08:00美股增長股watchlist 估值增長數據<p> </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPZ6s9S4vdF_pN2wB5r9vPqT9lHo7eeBsBIYP-Yt3S44df24BGkGcuFhPIGnMd4TtW9wcioycXBAXrk-SwUyo9p1dmPtsUjut1_VVYYCExWCSz9400iUlLG_1CwPvHqJHnhkDOJhbSzfo/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="859" data-original-width="961" height="358" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEiPZ6s9S4vdF_pN2wB5r9vPqT9lHo7eeBsBIYP-Yt3S44df24BGkGcuFhPIGnMd4TtW9wcioycXBAXrk-SwUyo9p1dmPtsUjut1_VVYYCExWCSz9400iUlLG_1CwPvHqJHnhkDOJhbSzfo/w400-h358/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>- 縱合了美股主要增長股的重點數據, 包括本人持股及各大blogger和熱門討論區的焦點股票(點圖放大看會更清楚內容)。很多增長股是以市值對營業額(price to sales)作估值,但此比率忽視了(i)利潤率(或至少gross margin)以及(ii)增長率。是故在這列表中的估值,除了 price/sales 外,還加上包括利潤率的 price to gross profit (抱歉打錯了不是gross profit/sales),以及再包含增長的 price to gross profit to growth(也打錯了不是gross profit/sales/growth)</p><p>- 把重要的三組parameters,分別是營業額增長、price to sales、以及 price to gross profit to growth中,排較前位置的股票列出來,並用不同顏色 highlight。淺藍色的公司(即price to gross profit to growth在1附近的公司)更值得留意,尤其是 revenue growth也有被黃色 highlight 的公司。即是計及利潤率和增長後,他們是估值相對吸引的股票,他們當中有幾隻是本人目前的增股。反之紅色的是估值增長比上相對不吸引的公司。</p><p>- 要留意目前美股是業績期,有些公司剛公佈20年業績有些還未公佈。等業績期後這個列表會在同一個基準上比較,會更具可比性。</p><p><br /></p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com35tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-2196995145045441922021-01-20T18:56:00.003+08:002021-01-21T11:03:11.551+08:00理想的開局 找尋下一個增長點<p> 投資組合:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeY7JKj0IjLpxNvdqO0Vy_y5QZozy9a4b4YZ4TAryU50QSvWhdZRuTb6xi6sbasgivTABfrK3VxbCPjd3ZrVMD4RYUO_mQbsMm0offiejZ7QNArWg_GasQQVUNWA93lOc6_fHoi5dpjlI/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="154" data-original-width="290" height="170" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgeY7JKj0IjLpxNvdqO0Vy_y5QZozy9a4b4YZ4TAryU50QSvWhdZRuTb6xi6sbasgivTABfrK3VxbCPjd3ZrVMD4RYUO_mQbsMm0offiejZ7QNArWg_GasQQVUNWA93lOc6_fHoi5dpjlI/" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:13.8%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:2.4%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:1.1%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:10.0%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆生科技 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:17.3%</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:17.4%</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 21年有理想的投資開局,繼續保持此成績1月份的投資表現有機會是歷來最好的。但和今年終於爆升的中港股市比較,這個回報又不算什麼。西方國家仍受武肺困擾,今年經濟能否復甦仍存變數,反之中國的經濟恢復目前是比較明確的。</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 美股去年的巨大升幅預先反映了今年的經濟恢復,加上經濟復甦仍有不確定性,所以今年美股難以重覆去年的高回報。此外, sector rotation正進行中,不經不覺金融及能源正在領頭,軟件股尤其是WFH或雲相關股表現轉為落後,尤其是Zoom進入了明顯的熊走勢。SaaS相關股份中,只有network security 相關 (NET, CRWD, ZS, OKTA etc) 仍能保持相對強勢。</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 首半個月表現繼續由Tesla帶動,原因是推出FSD自動駕駛訂閱服務,以及憧憬隨著歐洲廠房的投產,數年後的production capacity可達數百萬輌。此外,基因工程ETF ARKG,南美洲龍頭電商 MELI及遙距醫療 TDOC 到目前為止跑出。</span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 每一年的熱門股份總會有些變化。其中一個跑贏指數的要門是把那些增長見了頂,或不再是市場竉兒的股份換出,並找尋下一批市場熱點,持續為投資組合保持活力。PLTR (</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #4d5156; font-size: 14px;">大數據分析</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">)及 EH (</span><span face="arial, sans-serif" style="color: #4d5156; font-size: 14px;">智能自动驾驶飞行器</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">)是在這一方面作嘗試。 </span></div><p><br /></p></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com26tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-36217072827769599952020-12-31T15:33:00.006+08:002021-01-21T11:23:53.534+08:002020年結及展望: 反低潮的豐收年<p> 投資組合:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6qfQgoTwf3ADC1D7l7V4kKbALXhdtrChgFKv4FXms01rOwVWhZwjmyFqGG0akG6pwoxcAJIlYKeF_XL2ZOpuCKJjpiBj5Y1USjJ8FDyBqdAl5u_7-DuVUndQcFLH47UpqJRHzQJ2n1Ds/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="154" data-original-width="290" height="213" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEj6qfQgoTwf3ADC1D7l7V4kKbALXhdtrChgFKv4FXms01rOwVWhZwjmyFqGG0akG6pwoxcAJIlYKeF_XL2ZOpuCKJjpiBj5Y1USjJ8FDyBqdAl5u_7-DuVUndQcFLH47UpqJRHzQJ2n1Ds/w400-h213/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:159.5%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:15.5%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:43.4%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(3.3%)</span></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">ARKK year to date <span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:153.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><p>- 2020年股票市場和現實世界的愁雲慘霧可謂平行時空,而我也一洗頹風,今年的投資表現居然創了有史以來最高記錄。除了科技股整體市況可人外,成功原因很大程度歸功於更多執行 momentum trading 策略。先用基本因素shortlist watchlist,然後集中買入當中動力最突出的股份。除了公司的新聞及業績外,投資組合持股的上升動力是重要監察指標; 持股必需在明確的上升走勢,且領先於指數及同類型公司。定期把上升動力較弱的公司沽出,再買入watchlist內上升動力較強的股票,股價表現未能outperform的股票只會給予更少的容忍度。</p><p>- 困難的仍是沽出決定。除了2,3月份的超大型調整外,今年仍是大牛市格局,美股尤其是中小市值科技股,周不時會有震倉式調整,但都是來得短而急勁。今年9,10月份科技股出現較深度回調,是有減持需要; 但更多情況是除非是走勢逆轉的第一下沽出,等待太多所謂的沽出訊號,往往已接近低部,隨後要以高價補回。但汲取以往教訓,情願跟隨紀律適時減磅。看錯了可以高位補回,但一旦讓損失擴大,會逾難追回。</p><p>- 今年的投資回報,很大程度來自於TSLA, SQ, 及 LVGO (目前已與TDOC合併),都頗為正路。曾經有買入 Zoom,但未能捕捉此股的大部分升幅,是因為對公司的business model 未有十足信心,低估了Zoom的普及程度,此外也因年中時受 network security 的指控而離開此股。另一隻錯失的爆升股是CRWD,期間有不少買買賣賣,但和此股總是無緣,未能賺取當中大部份升幅。此公司的增長數據及breakeven 進程很亮麗,但有人提出 network security是一個紅海市場,先天性競爭激烈,所以我沒很強信心長坐。然而,目前看來CRWD在雲端時代掌握了終端用戶的大數據,用AI防止 hacking ,應該在雲端時代建立了一定護城河。</p><p>- TSLA及SQ的持股比重佔portfolio逾半。並非很刻意地很重注此兩公司,主要是按最初買入的股數而市值增大。尤其是Tesla,股價今年翻了好幾倍,但持股數已較年初最高峰時為低。此兩股過高的比重的確構成一定心理壓力,但不想為減持而減持。</p><p>- 關於展望,21年會是後武肺時代,經濟活動遂漸恢復。從新經濟轉往舊經濟的sector rotation 會不時出現,但隨著投資者適應,隨之而來的市場震盪會 diminish。直接受惠work from home 的如Zoom等應過了增長高峰,但其他增長跑道仍長的軟件股如CRWD及MDB等仍值得關注。</p><p>- 初步看來,明年上半年跑出的會是電動汽車,太陽能及 biotech 等。這一個月投資組合作出的改動也順應這些趨勢: ARKG (biotech), ENPH (solar energy), MA (old economy & economy recovery) ,剛沽出的CGNX也是受惠經濟恢復的工業股等。</p><p>- 預想明年會是先高後低。上半年會繼承寬鬆貨幣政策及疫情消退而看好,但下半年通脹,收水及加息的憂慮或會捲土重來,繼而對股市構成壓力。</p><p>- 很明顯21年很難重複今年的超額回報,來年為追求表現在板塊選取上或要作一些改變。經今年改進操作手法後信心加強,在市場無崩盤的前提下,執行目前這一套momentum trading 策略,一年取得20%以上的回報是合理期望。</p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com24tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-88758242801175152772020-12-07T18:54:00.006+08:002020-12-08T10:36:09.288+08:00投資組合再創新高<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: left;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC2tAIO7r3gp1BeZhtzlVm11SaIyLj66Nges5sfDDdGTSl_iVmTLVK9jzIU_5by10HkRQ6AqM_91OjYqz8FR_17JYVh8Qwg9ME8oLcepybgXkl4Ogk6zyzQAWA-j-74NAz06FPwgsb4Mw/" style="margin-left: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="188" data-original-width="290" height="259" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhC2tAIO7r3gp1BeZhtzlVm11SaIyLj66Nges5sfDDdGTSl_iVmTLVK9jzIU_5by10HkRQ6AqM_91OjYqz8FR_17JYVh8Qwg9ME8oLcepybgXkl4Ogk6zyzQAWA-j-74NAz06FPwgsb4Mw/w400-h259/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /> <div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:141.0%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:14.5%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:38.9%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(6.2%)</span></div><p>- 投資組合經9月及10月份的回落整固後,11月份終回復上升18%,ytd 回報破140%,已是投資多年來的最好表現。都是跟隨美國總統選舉過後不明朗因素消除而帶動美股指數漲高。</p><p>- 11月份的高回報,相當程度來自TSLA終被納入S&P500指數,追蹤指數基金需要買入TSLA而帶來的恐慌性買盤。TSLA將在12月21日正式加入S&P500指數,TSLA目前的升幅己有些over extended;而基於買盤在正式加入指數前己消耗得大半,藍籌在加入指數後走勢多會回調。本月中頗大機會先把部份持股 profit taking。</p><p>- 這一個多月也有失敗之作。便是錯升爆升的半新股SNOW及YALA。先後看中了這兩隻股票,但因走勢太波動被震走,繼而錯失往後的巨大升幅。問題是半新股的走勢較波動,對之的信心也不夠。這些錯失較難避免,好的交易目前不單看潛在升幅,也是看股價走勢波幅及操作上的可掌握性。沽出BA也是類似道理,始終對周期性的舊經濟股,坐的耐心有限。一旦指數有風吹草動,此股便容易成開刀對象。</p><p>- 雖則這兩個多月出現了數次sector rotation,但最後仍是科技股及增長股跑出。尤其是剛公佈的新一輪季度業績,很多SaaS股份錄得 breakeven以至 profit margin擴大,反映他們進入了足夠的規模經濟效益階段。</p><p>- 近來的買入手法作了一些修正。減少追入突破創新高股,買入於升浪中處調整並見支持及相對稍後落後的公司,例如SHOP, MELI, TDOC,PTON等;始終突破後才追入的水位不會多。</p><p>- 目前手持11隻股份,且有數個百分點的杆槓。不會讓over draft的狀態維持太長,並會再集中持股。</p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com27tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-64983168733232343072020-11-25T12:11:00.000+08:002020-11-25T12:11:07.338+08:00Company snapshot - Fiverr (FVRR)<p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsMBd5hNb0eeJlQApO3qTHRVAL9fohv69zpsiDd486qeEOszOerlhYm3vMeIU7wjqyx2KH6OrPbgeYcPex0wUIRoRTSsvjPul1ama6KJoH4YQ60rQPS-z62hbRn2wXH78x4EENLlwyhfg/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="307" data-original-width="830" height="148" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEgsMBd5hNb0eeJlQApO3qTHRVAL9fohv69zpsiDd486qeEOszOerlhYm3vMeIU7wjqyx2KH6OrPbgeYcPex0wUIRoRTSsvjPul1ama6KJoH4YQ60rQPS-z62hbRn2wXH78x4EENLlwyhfg/w400-h148/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p>- Freelancing 工作配對平台,以色列公司,可受惠gig economy的趨勢</p><p>-剛剛季度revenue growth加速至88%,以目前的趨勢,未來2個季度的增長可輕易超預期,並維持70%至80%的revenue growth</p><p>-EBITDA己轉為正數,財務虧損大幅收窄,下一個季度很大機會breakeven</p><p>-新近推出的Fiverr business,引入freelancing工作管理的SaaS 收入模式,帶來持續性的收入增長</p><p>-預計21年度revenue growth 可達40%以上,調整後的利潤率可逾10%。預測市盈率可能逾200倍,price/sales ratio在25倍以下</p><p>#有關買賣的更新,請參閱上篇文章的留言</p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com0tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-34425340709737725642020-11-17T16:26:00.001+08:002020-11-17T16:27:24.217+08:00Sector rotation<p>投資組合:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitWsGPbg6q3EDv5YmDgLcg4qR3hD_oO94tLVCSOFmgNAP9pm6pjfwd19Dsm9CWySoXMRtCLs1VBTi8agCE9aZ541hCiz9f6EkMFZKIaxOluRGKxakuHs0v4ll_n83vlSpdhUi1kHwqXJ8/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="171" data-original-width="290" height="236" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEitWsGPbg6q3EDv5YmDgLcg4qR3hD_oO94tLVCSOFmgNAP9pm6pjfwd19Dsm9CWySoXMRtCLs1VBTi8agCE9aZ541hCiz9f6EkMFZKIaxOluRGKxakuHs0v4ll_n83vlSpdhUi1kHwqXJ8/w400-h236/image.png" width="400" /></a></div><p><br /></p><br /> <p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:105.9%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:12.3%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:32.9%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(6.0%)</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 自9月份投資回報再次進入停滯不前狀態。原本投資回報在月初有理想表現,但武漢肺炎疫苗開發宣布進入最後階段,即來個sector rotation,資金由科技股轉回舊經濟股。指數表面上上升,但科技股又被洗倉下,11月份回報由接近正10%倒跌至負2%,而再稍回復至約2%。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 因應市況而作出一些改動,Zoom, Peloton, DocuSign, 以至Teladoc (即使</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">疫</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">情見頂也不見會改變線上醫療這個長線走勢</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">)等</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">疫</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">情受惠股己先後沽出。但仍保留若干科技股的持倉,例如Square,若實體經濟恢復的話,應有利支付活動。Pinterest和</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">疲情完全無關也一度被洗倉。而Fiverr的外判工作配對,也是一個和</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">疲情無關的長期趨勢。在Pfizer</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">疫苗消息的頭一,兩天科技股全都不問情由地被洗。但冷靜期過後和</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 14.85px;">疫</span><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 14.85px;">情有望受控無直接影響的股份,好些修復過來。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="background-color: transparent; font-size: 14.85px;">- 本身的投資組合管理向來以中庸之道應對。科技增長股為長期增長重點,並不會一下子全部轉往</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股。減持了若干雲端應用股,買入太陽能股ENPH 及航天工業股Boeing,並增加現金比重。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 執筆之時,Tesla公佈終被納入S&P500, post market 升逾13%,惟上周已減持此股。這個無得怨,自9月以來TSLA股價由大幅度領前指數轉為持續性落後指數,不應該予太重倉。"無常"是投資不免遇到的事情,要面對買賣決定往往出錯及肯修補錯誤。TSLA的長期增長故事無變,但競爭對手陸續持出電動車(尤其是中國的NIO,以及中國官媒對TSLA的批評也要注意),的確是限制TSLA最近兩個月轉為落後的合理因素。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 除非美國總統選舉未有定案,年底前指數應是看升,但在sector roatation往</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股轉移下,今年餘下不容易再出現很爆炸性升幅,9月初的13x% ytd 回報可能已經見了今年高位。</span></div><p><br /></p><p><br /></p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com26tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-14123565633362437122020-11-06T18:59:00.003+08:002020-11-06T18:59:35.736+08:00停滯不前<p>目前組合:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5dD9zKk35GZddHxhr8hk7I50iDfCATZm4L2tF9yMCLB6LUvgR0bph2yGEkj0yv-5E4IKJAR8BvKEKE4dj61A4hqvdI07ve1h1Cac3H9UEkOcyvZu4atA-3YcE4uslQ_hrL7YVoUiXDPE/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="205" data-original-width="290" height="226" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEi5dD9zKk35GZddHxhr8hk7I50iDfCATZm4L2tF9yMCLB6LUvgR0bph2yGEkj0yv-5E4IKJAR8BvKEKE4dj61A4hqvdI07ve1h1Cac3H9UEkOcyvZu4atA-3YcE4uslQ_hrL7YVoUiXDPE/" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:117.3%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:8.7%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:32.5%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(8.8%)</span></div><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US">-<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">投資組合回報仍保持在</span><span lang="EN-US">100%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">之上,但自</span><span lang="EN-US">9</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月初</span><span lang="EN-US">equity return curve</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">進入停滯不前的上落狀態。主要原因是今年帶來豐厚回報的重倉</span><span lang="EN-US">Tesla</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">自</span><span lang="EN-US">8</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月底後未能再創新高,繼而限制投資組合的爆發力。此外,今年年初持股股數也影響對</span><span lang="EN-US">TSLA</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的投資決定,太著意要補回年初股數也令股價未展現充份強勢時買入過多比重</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p><p>
</p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US">-<span style="font-size: 7pt; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: normal;">
</span></span><!--[endif]--><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">這一個多月來持股成員作出不少變化,要令投資組合加入具活力的新血,尤其是好些之前</span><span lang="EN-US">trade</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">開股份己過了最爆炸性的一段。但問題是目前除第一大持股外,其餘股份比重太散,未是理想狀態。其一原因是好公司太多,很多隻也想買。其二是</span><span lang="EN-US">11</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月重因應市況現金比重提升至近</span><span lang="EN-US">50%</span><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,其後接連三天納指急升,但升得太急的話要追回持貨也不容易做決定,以及有焗追的感覺</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;"><span lang="ZH-HK" style="font-family: "新細明體","serif"; mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">- 個別股票在升至高位或股價轉弱時應予減持以控制風險,但如何補回又是一項議題。剛公佈利好業績的SQ雖則目前是第二大持倉,但9月份及10月份時相斷賣出及補回了兩轉,目前總股數其實較8月份是少了一截</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18.0pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18.0pt;">- 在交易技巧上要進步便要嘗試作反向交易,第一注執行要在大跌時買入及升時沽出,或在一個行情醞釀中的時候。若待明確訊號突破出現時才下第一注往往己錯失了先機</p><p><br /></p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com15tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-92070918952645184532020-10-16T18:14:00.003+08:002020-10-16T18:37:37.254+08:00持續大幅領前的挑戰<p> 目前組合:</p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigbAeGeXgGeCKN4sG36jtV49uI_yp7qpgmXFycQtVA-BoodXRg-xcc9MPq3GETwq0LAZbdSWH5L_gfUC7h4douZjx9qOZwB5vieOWukDEHF3h_ZgSCE-ZdaLQBdKdTEpPL4mxFxyr9ME0/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="137" data-original-width="290" height="151" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEigbAeGeXgGeCKN4sG36jtV49uI_yp7qpgmXFycQtVA-BoodXRg-xcc9MPq3GETwq0LAZbdSWH5L_gfUC7h4douZjx9qOZwB5vieOWukDEHF3h_ZgSCE-ZdaLQBdKdTEpPL4mxFxyr9ME0/" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:125.2%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:7.8%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:30.6%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(13.4%)</span></div><p></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="ZH-HK">- </span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">這一個月的投資回報雖有正面進帳,但整體表現缺乏今年中的爆炸力。回顧這一個月的操作大致上正路,從</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">9</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">月中現金比重稍高的狀態</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">(</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">約</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">27%)</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">陸陸續續買回長期</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">follow</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">並看好的公司。投資組合未有再大幅拋離納指原因是受</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">Tesla(TSLA)</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">的拖累,其股價過去一個月呈相對慢牛走勢,未有再呈現爆炸性升幅。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18pt;"><!--[if !supportLists]--><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-bidi-font-family: Calibri; mso-fareast-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri;"><span style="mso-list: Ignore;">- </span></span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">回顧這一個月,持倉最重的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">3</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">大持股</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">,TSLA,
LVGO, </span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">及</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">SQ</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">,只有</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">SQ</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">能大幅度拋離納指的升幅。日前沽出的</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">FSLY</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">在</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">profit taking</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">前是能大幅度拋離指數,但只買入一注,佔比不到</span><span lang="EN-US" style="mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK;">5%</span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">。注碼高的股票未能跑贏指數,能跑贏的卻又佔比不高。</span><span lang="EN-US"><o:p></o:p></span></p>
<p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18pt;"><span lang="ZH-HK">- </span><span face=""新細明體","serif"" lang="ZH-HK" style="mso-ascii-font-family: Calibri; mso-ascii-theme-font: minor-latin; mso-fareast-font-family: 新細明體; mso-fareast-language: ZH-HK; mso-fareast-theme-font: minor-fareast; mso-hansi-font-family: Calibri; mso-hansi-theme-font: minor-latin;">環看目前的持股,走勢及盈利前景著實不差。但又好像差點什麼,致令投資回報欠缺早兩、三個月前的爆發性。原因是眼球太集中在早前的winning stocks如目前的三大持股,致令錯失了好些新冒起的爆升股如FVRR,ENPH及PTON等。由此可見要持續地大幅度</span><span face="新細明體, serif">跑贏指數並不容易,要緊貼及更新最領導性的公司。而如何在一眾高增長股中作取捨,是需進一步學習的課題。</span></p><p class="MsoListParagraph" style="margin-left: 18pt; mso-list: l0 level1 lfo1; mso-para-margin-left: 0gd; text-indent: -18pt;">- 關於最大持股TSLA,近月未有大幅度領前應是因累積升幅過高及比較基數變大。此外,其他傳統車廠即將推出電動汽車,會對公司構成不利的燥音。然而,目前的總股數其實是低於年初時候,無意因短期的欠缺爆炸力而減持。</p>- 這幾個月在此一批股份上出出入入,的確造成了一些損耗,應該單純 buy and hold的效果會好一些。然而,經過18及19年失敗的教訓後,情願在市況波動時降低持股比重以控制風險。如跌幅較預期低而要在高位補回,那就當作是交個保險費。要記著控制每一個部位的下跌幅度,一旦投資組合回報自高位跌15%至20%以上,那便很難追回。<p></p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com45tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-78528284047743256692020-09-16T19:05:00.001+08:002020-09-16T19:05:30.926+08:00再檢討沽出操作<p>目前組合: </p><p></p><div class="separator" style="clear: both; text-align: center;"><a href="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkMydnMZwJnb4iDEdbhQ1s5pUdyYoXXahC-VEdukW03wPi8BuPY5mDCMhvChPEXosfZZBdVmzwklXAnBoh83qHIvgNZw6fNsfex3obGL_DFKgK78LstEHcnsQNfdQ4KeHcgdaiMm3k1Js/" style="clear: left; float: left; margin-bottom: 1em; margin-right: 1em;"><img alt="" data-original-height="120" data-original-width="290" height="132" src="https://blogger.googleusercontent.com/img/b/R29vZ2xl/AVvXsEhkMydnMZwJnb4iDEdbhQ1s5pUdyYoXXahC-VEdukW03wPi8BuPY5mDCMhvChPEXosfZZBdVmzwklXAnBoh83qHIvgNZw6fNsfex3obGL_DFKgK78LstEHcnsQNfdQ4KeHcgdaiMm3k1Js/" width="320" /></a></div><br /><br /><p></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:113%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:5.3%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:24.7%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(12.3%)</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 科技股的調整似乎穩定下來。9月初ytd一度達134%,上周五ytd回落至98%,但在TSLA發力下短短兩個交易天又升回113%。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 今次調整</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">的</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">沽出操作未如理想,很多沽出決定都是接近尾聲才做,如Square(SQ)般又要因股價反彈而高位補回。的確有地方須要改善,但目前的市場步伐轉得很快,且仍是科技股牛市,沽出決定要做得夠快,否則很容易錯失先機。沽出</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">決定仍是知易行難。</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">正如上一篇文章提到,可以設定限價沽出補足</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">不夠</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">決斷及未能全時睇市的缺點。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 另一個是沽出</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">決定主要以21 day EMA為依據,但20天線是稍為滯後一些,若是牛市的話到21 day EMA才沽,有機會己近水尾。雖捨不得放棄手上賺錢的股票,但宜多以再短線的沽出指標:(一)升至高位後波幅擴大及單日轉向倒跌、及(二)跌破8 day EMA為第一注的沽出指標,再以21day EMA為第二注的沽出指標作配合。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 沽出股票後,若是有信心睇好的公司,股價回升時要高位補回,此是逆向止蝕的一種。沽出後高位補回是無可避免的錯誤,但不要忽略風險管理的重要性,適時沽出是一種保險。以往就是太多即使長線睇好,需忽視一個中線下跌浪可以令投資組合損失慘重。</span></div><p>- Square (SQ) 近兩天的回升,應是這個消息,可以用Cash App出糧及把薪金存款,進一步完善其 Fintech的生態圈,維持長期睇好:</p><h3 style="background-color: white; box-sizing: border-box; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif; font-stretch: normal; font-variant-east-asian: normal; font-variant-numeric: normal; line-height: 40px; margin: 0px 0px 16px; overflow-wrap: break-word; text-align: left;"><span style="font-size: small;">Square adds new features for quicker payroll payments</span></h3><p>https://seekingalpha.com/news/3614198-square-adds-new-features-for-quicker-payroll-payments</p><p><br /></p><p>- 早前剛買入前一排買過的CRWD及DDOG。心水清的讀者,不難估到若美股市況回復平<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">穩的話,下一步的投資組合會怎樣調配。</span></p><p><br /></p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com44tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-20318552208855077082020-09-04T18:51:00.007+08:002020-10-16T18:19:59.334+08:00調整<p>目前組合:</p><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 289px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 8301; mso-width-source: userset; width: 170pt;" width="227"></col>
<col style="width: 47pt;" width="62"></col>
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 170pt;" width="227">Tesla (TSLA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63" style="width: 47pt;" width="62">31.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Square (SQ US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">24.3%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Nvidia (NVDA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">13.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Livongo Health (LVGO US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">10.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Shopify (SHOP US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">5.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">CrowdStrike (CRWD US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Lululemon (LULU US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Cash</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">6.1%</td>
</tr></tbody></table><br /><div style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:111.7%</span></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:6.9%</span></div><div style="color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:27.7%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(12.5%)</span></div><p>- 較大型調整終告出現,前兩天 ytd回報沖高至130%之上,但兩個交易天便回落到目前水平。理想中的做法是股價回落至8EMA時先減第一注。但這兩天的跌勢太急,未能在第一個沽出點沽出。昨天先行沽出明顯跌離21 EMA的TDOC及FSLY。前者看來市場仍須時間觀察及確認和LVGO合併後的協同效應,而後者且因主要客戶TikKok抖音出售海外營運仍存變數。</p><p>- 昨晚有買入跌幅相對較少,並仍在21 EMA上的CRWD,剛公佈的季績營收按年增84%,財務上開始 breakeven。公司累積到的大數據能有效地使用AI防毒,這是其競爭優勢。</p><p>- 今輪的科技股洗倉應是8月份大升後的profit taking。除了觀察近日回升的VIX外,也會注意企業債券ETF (LQD),尤其是高息債ETF (HYG)。目前這兩個指標沒有異樣,市場暫未見重大跌風險。</p><p>- 截至周五科技股繼續調整,在TSLA被納入S&P憧憬力托下(雖則後來期望落空),ytd回報維持在108%水平,而現金比重提升至23%。納指自3月底以來的累積升幅近倍,且9月份是美股傳統上較弱月份,要有心理預備整固期還要持續。</p><p>- 目前的ytd回報雖能保持翻倍,但面對今次狼來了大型調整,表現的確未如理想,沽出決定來得遲疑。其中原因是這幾個月的投資表現是廿多年來最好的一段,所以心態上有些放鬆了。尤其是之前出現過一,兩次較大型震倉,指數很快企穩並回升。所以去年尾曾提出的限價自動沽出設定,在這輪突如其來的大調整中並無執行。我目前是以8day/21day EMA作為沽出點,但感覺上很多投資者均以後者或類似的指標作參考,一旦跌破便引來程式沽盤令跌幅急速擴大。是故若無設定限價沽出的話,用人手操作很容易在錯失第一個沽出點後,眼巴巴地看著跌幅急速地擴大而來不及反應。上周四納指跌5%,的確來得突然,惟手上持股大部份走勢仍未走樣。但至少應在周四出現這個突然大跌的警號後,至少為部份持股作出限價自動沽出指令。</p><p>- 以21day EMA的方向作為中線牛熊指標。目前餘下五隻持股(TSLA, LVGO,NVDA, SQ, CRWD), TSLA, NVDA及CRWD 仍是綠燈,SQ及LVGO則是黃燈狀態。</p><p>- 對我而言,選股大於交易技巧,今年投資回報終能一吐烏氣,是靠TSLA及LVGO這兩倍升股並大力重倉。TSLA,SQ,及TDOC(LGVO)未來的增長賽道還很長,只要每年發掘至一至兩間這些明星公司,要持續地取得優異回報不會困難。</p><p><br /></p>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com27tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-56243449792727892262020-08-17T19:03:00.000+08:002020-08-17T19:03:14.136+08:00高瞻遠矚<p>目前組合:</p><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 289px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 8301; mso-width-source: userset; width: 170pt;" width="227"></col>
<col style="width: 47pt;" width="62"></col>
</colgroup><tbody><tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 170pt;" width="227">Tesla (TSLA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63" style="width: 47pt;" width="62">25.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Square (SQ US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">23.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Nvidia (NVDA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">11.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Livongo Health (LVGO US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">9.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">MercadoLibre (MELI US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">8.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Datadog (DDOG US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">6.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Teladoc Health (TDOC US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Lululemon (LULU US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3.9%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Shopify (SHOP US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">2.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Cash</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">3.5%</td>
</tr></tbody></table><p><br /></p><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><div style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:92.9%</span></div><div style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:4.40%</span></div><div style="font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:22.8%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(9.5%)</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 自7月中投資組合的成長步伐有所放慢,原因是不少高增長雲端股從高位較大幅度回落。此外,雖則我對TDOC及LVGO的大型合併持長線正面看法、但投資者擔心整合期的額外成本,以及對合併的條款有顧慮,所以消息公佈後此重倉股跌近20%,而我也順勢減持一些。但投資組合year to date已有接近翻倍表現,且8月份是美股傳統上其中最弱月份,8月份到目前為止仍有數個百份點的ytd回報增長已夠收貨。</span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 在疫苗有望推出下,的確出現由新經濟至舊經濟的sector rotation。但我無太刻意參與,因認為這容易是"贏粒糖 輸間廠"的玩法。且</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">舊經濟股的反彈動力並不算強 (e.g. XLF, XLE, BA, UAL etc)</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 納指企在歷史高位但未能突破,但這是僅由Apple (或再加Facebook, TSLA, Amazon)等大型科技股力撐納指。很多SaaS或相關雲及work from home等科技股走勢轉弱,未能跟隨指數企在高位。可能是武肺疫情透支了未來的增長,在估值及預期過高下,ZM, DDOG, OKTA, TWLO, CRWD等明星股似乎是過了最爆炸性的一段。</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 經這一輪的投資組合調配,把資金集中在長遠而言更具信心及投資主題的核心持股上。俱是食正未來五到十年的大主題(賽道很長),有明確的增長主題,以及於所在領域有明顯領前優勢:</span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span> </span><span> - Tesla (TSLA) - 替代能源及自動駕駛</span><br /></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span><span> </span><span> - Square (SQ) - Fintech</span><br /></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span><span><span> </span><span> - Nvidia (NVDA) - AI (人工智能) 及數據中心</span><br /></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span><span><span><span> </span><span> - Teladoc/Livongo (TDOC/LVBO) - 遙距及AI醫療</span><br /></span></span></span></span></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><span><span><span><span> - MercadoLibre (MELI) - 南美電商及電子支付</span></span></span></span></span></div><div><br /></div><div><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 這幾隻股份可定為 high conviction 類別(對Shopify有些少保留,始終電商的發展應過了最爆炸性的一段)。基於集中在最優秀公司的原則,可見將來應會集中在這些股份上調配,或在適當時候減持以應對宏觀風險。</span></div></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-38741656929546355122020-08-03T00:32:00.003+08:002020-08-03T11:26:20.863+08:00高位整固<div>目前組合:</div><br /><div><table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 331px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 195pt;" width="260"></col><col style="width: 53pt;" width="71"></col></colgroup><tbody><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 195pt;" width="260">Livongo Health (LVGO US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 53pt;" width="71">26.5%</td></tr><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Tesla (TSLA US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">24.5%</td></tr><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Square (SQ US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">15.2%</td></tr><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Nvidia (NVDA US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">8.5%</td></tr><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Crowdstrike (CRWD US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">7.1%</td></tr><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Fastly (FSLY US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">6.9%</td></tr><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">MercadoLibre (MELI US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">3.2%</td></tr><tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Cash</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">8.3%</td></tr></tbody></table></div><div><br /></div><div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:89.3%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">7月份回報:23%</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:1.25%</span><br /><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:19.8%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(12.8%)</span></div></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 經7月初的衝高後,投資組合在7月中下旬反反覆覆只能持平。TSLA及好些軟體股自7月初出現了較大整固,而投資組合至月底仍能維持在最高位很大程度是受LVGO的支撐。7月中減持了一些軟體及雲端股,但科技股這一波的整固幅度並不深,7月底再補回一些科技股。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 這一個月來,投資組合的變化便是更集中持股,focusing on the best。更確信投資組合貴精不貴多,要集中在最具信心及前景的公司上。</span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div><div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 基本上沒太特別的更新。手上持股及Watchlist,除了TSLA有些走弱外,絶大部份仍在明確的上升走勢。VIX持續在低水平,而美國企業債ETF及繼續上升,宏觀風險訊號上仍無異樣。美國貨幣供應氾濫可支撐這個科技股大牛市,尤其是武漢肺炎加速了數碼化的進程。8/9月份是傳統上較弱的月份,的確需審慎一些。7月中的確亮起了一會黃燈,惟至月底市況又轉回綠</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">燈訊號了。</span></div>You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com38tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-58254011909491742952020-07-13T00:17:00.000+08:002020-07-13T11:43:44.980+08:00直線上升 翻倍在望目前組合:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 331px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 195pt;" width="260"></col><col style="width: 53pt;" width="71"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 195pt;" width="260">Tesla (TSLA US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 53pt;" width="71">21.6%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Livongo Health (LVGO US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">19.2%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Datadog (DDOG US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">14.8%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Square (SQ US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">12.9%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Microsoft (MSFT US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">9.5%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">CrowdStrike (CRWD US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">9.1%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Nvidia (NVDA US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">8.2%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Apple (AAPL US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">7.5%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">iShares Russell 2000 - S (IWM US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">-6.7%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Cash</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">3.9%</td></tr>
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<span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br class="Apple-interchange-newline" />組合 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:89.2%</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:(1.4%)</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">回報:18.3%</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(8.7%)</span></div>
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- 有這個投資成績簡直是好得難以置信,廿多年的投資歷程未試過可以這麼爆。但與其誇獎自己投資功力,其實是有危才有機的大環境。武漢肺炎對環球經濟的 確構成重大打撃,但另一方面加快產業轉型的進程。此外,在重啟QE下,投資者更願意為<span style="color: #222222; font-family: "arial" , sans-serif;">顛覆式創新的企業付出更高估值溢價,現下的確是投資高增長企業的最好時代。目前投資組合回報出乎意料地好,會加倍留意市況在高位逆轉的風險,但目前未見明顯警號。</span></div>
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- 6月底的組合表現一度稍為落後指數,但這兩星期又爆上去,是受比重最高的愛股帶動:(i) 投資者除了炒Tesla有機會被納入S&P500外,自動駕駛接近取得突破<b>(</b><span style="color: black; font-family: Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif;"><a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3589719-tesla-very-close-to-level-5-self-driving-technology">Tesla 'very close' to level 5 self-driving technology</a>)。一旦自動駕駛能廣泛應用的話,幾年內股價五位數並不是夢,(ii) LVGO雖不是治療</span>武漢肺炎,但一來武漢肺炎第二波提高對遙距醫治的需求、二來武漢肺炎對糖尿病人(公司系統的主要應用)的傷害更高,對LVGO系統的需求有直接提升,根據公司最新的sales update (<a href="https://seekingalpha.com/news/3588999-livongo-sees-q2-revenue-high-87m">https://seekingalpha.com/news/3588999-livongo-sees-q2-revenue-high-87m</a>),季度營業額增長仍可逾100%,目前的估值仍不算過高, (iii)美國政府對疫情的資助透過Square Cash的Cash App發放,推動Cash App的應用。長遠而言,Cash App能取代個人銀行的很多功能,屬於Fintech的革命性產品。相比其他SaaS相關雲端股份、此三隻重點持股長遠而言更具備disruptive(<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;">顛覆性)性質。</span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;">- 投資回報仍受"低增長、低回報"的三隻大市值股Nvidia, Misrosoft, Apple拖累,其實無話可說。在這個科技股大牛市裏,買這些股份居然是"保守及不思進取的表現",但我總接受不了all in 中小市值高增長高波幅股份。</span><br />
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;"><br /></span>
<span style="color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif;">- 選擇以沽空Russell2000作對沖的原因除了是走勢考慮外,指數表現明顯地反映中小企業受</span>疫情第二波打擊較高。計及沽空的實際操作,目前組合的實際leverage約在10%的稍為偏高水平。<br />
<br />
- 遺憾的是錯失了SHOP及FSLY這兩隻爆升股,但話雖如此,FSLY的business model是較難理解及頗為technical。此外,6月中一度稍為減持TSLA,其後雖有補回,但仍買不足原本的股數。此外、這兩個月的強勁走勢令心態上有些未夠進取,若能再檢視大局,幾隻重點持股的比重仍有提高空間。</div>
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You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com48tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-55723312723197111912020-06-23T19:23:00.001+08:002020-06-23T19:33:35.440+08:00勢如破竹 牛氣沖天目前組合:<br />
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<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 289px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 8301; mso-width-source: userset; width: 170pt;" width="227"></col>
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<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 170pt;" width="227">Tesla (TSLA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63" style="width: 47pt;" width="62">20.4%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Datadog (DDOG US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">16.8%</td>
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<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Livongo Health (LVGO US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">14.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Nvidia (NVDA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">13.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Microsoft (MSFT US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">11.0%</td>
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<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Apple (AAPL US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">8.6%</td>
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<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Square (SQ US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">7.9%</td>
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<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">CrowdStrike (CRWD US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">7.2%</td>
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<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Beyond Meat (BYND US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">7.1%</td>
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</tbody></table>
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<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:54.2%</span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:(3.5%)</span><br />
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:12.1%</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(11.7%)</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 不到半年ytd回報居然去到50%以上,當然自己於選股及操作手法上有進步及找回以往風格。但更重要是美股的高增長型科技股走勢十分強勁,自4月初只要選一些多人追棒、季績營業額有30%以上高增長科技股,要取得高回報絶不困難。武漢肺炎反加快推動往雲端轉型的步伐,推動以SaaS為首的科技股大牛市。反之,舊經濟的金融及能源股仍在低位苦苦掙扎。納指和道指的走勢差距正反映這大方向。此外,不少雲端股正步入 breakeven,(e.g. CRWD & DDOG)支持他們的升勢及高估值</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 觀乎美股論壇,ytd 回報較我為高的專業鬼佬散戶也不少,未能達到近倍回報,第一是受到Apple, Microsoft, Nvidia等"低增長"科技股回報拖累(這是什麼世界?!)。但始終未能接受全部下注高增長科技股。此外、一旦科技股出現大型調整時,這些高增長股份可以跌得很兇,全面重注心理上未必承受到。</span></div>
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<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
<span style="font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 此外,為控制風險,先後因短期相對走勢較弱及跌破8 day EMA(或21 day EMA),先後沽出SHOP、CRWD、SQ、SDGR等,增持現金以控制風險。但在牛氣沖天下,這些股票全都沽錯了,結果是</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">被震走</span><span style="font-size: 14.85px;">。因應技術走勢而沽出股票以控制風險沒有問題,畢境這些高增長科技股的波幅大。但一旦股價升回沽出價的數個百分點後,便應進行逆向止蝕買入補回。我其後也補回了CRWD及SQ,但未能補回至原本的股數。</span><br />
<span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span>
<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 此外,因Zoom的大陸背景,4/5月份公司因Internet security loophole消息而大幅調整時,不期然因香港人的角度而有較大憂慮,結果很失敗地於此大牛股上蝕錢沽出了。其後也因這種視角而無再去買此股、錯失了往後的逾倍升幅。而Zoom 正是很多美股的KOL的重倉持股。</span></div>
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<span style="font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div>
<div style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">
<span style="font-size: 14.85px;">- 自4月初以來賺錢太容易了,要提醒自己easy come, easy go。升市莫估頂,但要制定明確的exit plan ,一旦走勢逆轉便要減持。這些增長型科技股走勢大同小異,現階段無需太刻意選股。在這個大牛市裏,用高於50天線百分比作沽出準則主動式沽出,容易錯誤沽出好股。不用刻意強求於接近最頂部沽出、可以 8 day EMA 作先行減持的準則; 一旦失守21day EMA ,要沽出大部份持股,最多只可持少量貨底。</span></div>
You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com21tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-91457134667366201452020-05-31T01:32:00.001+08:002020-06-01T14:43:11.536+08:005月結: 科技股的大牛市目前組合:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 331px;"><colgroup><col style="width: 195pt;" width="260"></col><col style="width: 53pt;" width="71"></col></colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 195pt;" width="260">Datadog (DDOG US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap; width: 53pt;" width="71">15.3%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Square (SQ US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">14.3%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Nvidia (NVDA US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">13.9%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Tesla (TSLA US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">13.1%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Livongo Health (LVGO US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">11.0%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Microsoft (MSFT US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">8.2%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Shopify (SHOP US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">7.4%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Apple (AAPL US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">5.0%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Schrödinger (SDGR US)</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">2.7%</td></tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 13pt;"><td height="17" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; height: 13pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">Cash</td><td align="right" class="xl63" style="border: none; color: windowtext; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 10pt; padding: 0px; vertical-align: bottom; white-space: nowrap;">9.1%</td></tr>
</tbody></table>
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<div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:35.0%</span></div>
<div>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">5月份</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:16.0%</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:(5.8%)</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:5.8%</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(18.6%)</span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span></div>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: "arial" , "tahoma" , "helvetica" , "freesans" , sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 投資回報於5月份出奇地好,大幅度拋離指數,但說實在當中沒什麼難度。武漢肺炎重創全球經濟,但同時間加速了往雲端及數碼化的轉型,只要找到投資大主題;自3月底美股指數見底後取得高回報並不難。環看美股討論區,今年year to date回報達60%以上的也不少。我的year to date回報未達到這個水平,原因是於market leading winners的持股集中度不夠高。上月個股表現較落後的有MSFT, AAPL, TSLA, MSCI等。要檢討上月回報未算非常理想,居然是受Apple及Microsoft這些科技大藍籌的"拖累",實在不知是什麼世界。anyway,相信在高增長股及</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">科技大藍籌之間有一個平衡,會是一個較穩妥的做法</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 科技股的牛市走勢的確很強。例如4月底沽出了AYX,到5月初公司公佈季績時其業績guidance令人失望,因其非在線business model短期受</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">武漢肺炎影響顯著,但震倉了只一天,股價復又節節創新高,原因是投資者仍看好數據分析的長遠前景。此外,CRWD 5月27日因科技股震倉而一度跌近10%,但至收市時跌幅己收窄至約1%,其後恢復升勢及創新高。回顧上月採用主動式沽出的股票如SHOP, SDGR, LVGO, DDOG等,很多都是沽出後股價很快重回明確升勢。在一個明確的上升走勢中,沽出股票後一旦股價升破沽出價,要執行明確的買回策略、此是逆向止蝕。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 此外,很多去年愛股如MDB, ZS, TWLO等不經不覺創了新高。它們的增長故事無變,只是去年買入的時機及策略不正確。如MDB,投資者一直是看好其</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #222222; font-family: arial, sans-serif; font-size: 16px;">NoSQL database的前景,但公司未能達到breakeven是股價走勢較波動的原因。但</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">武漢肺炎爆發後,因重啟QE令資金太多及</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">數碼化轉型加速,即使這類基本面有些缺憾的公司也在兩個月間以很強勁的走勢創了新高</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 新買入股票中,除了LGVO及SDGR外,對剛重新買入的Square有較大期望。其Cash app (即類似PayMe)用戶增長迅速,並逹致breakeven,有望於Fintech取得進展及取代銀行的部份角色,值得期待。</span><br />
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br /></span>
<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">- 往雲端轉型、AI及大數據等的確是大趨勢,經5月底的短暫震倉後,目前大部份科技股的升浪並未見over extend。目前仍可看好,但經兩個月的優秀回報後,仍為保守一點適當時候沽出止賺以保障利潤也是應該的。</span></div>
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You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com42tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-7177962749989925788.post-46501673858104224422020-05-11T10:17:00.001+08:002020-05-11T10:17:31.143+08:00牛氣沖天目前組合:<br />
<br />
<table border="0" cellpadding="0" cellspacing="0" style="border-collapse: collapse; width: 289px;">
<colgroup><col style="mso-width-alt: 8301; mso-width-source: userset; width: 170pt;" width="227"></col>
<col style="width: 47pt;" width="62"></col>
</colgroup><tbody>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt; width: 170pt;" width="227">Tesla (TSLA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63" style="width: 47pt;" width="62">20.8%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Crowdstrike (CRWD US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">13.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">MSCI (MSCI US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">12.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Datadog (DDOG US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">12.7%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Nvidia (NVDA US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">10.6%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Microsoft (MSFT US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">9.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Livongo Health (LVGO US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">6.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Apple (AAPL US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">5.2%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Brookfield Renewable (BEP US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">5.0%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Schrödinger (SDGR US)</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">4.1%</td>
</tr>
<tr height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">
<td height="17" style="height: 12.75pt;">Cash</td>
<td align="right" class="xl63">0.8%</td>
</tr>
</tbody></table>
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<span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">組合 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:25.1%</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">標普500 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:(9.3%)</span><br style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: Arial, Tahoma, Helvetica, FreeSans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;" /><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">納指</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date年</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">回報:1.7%</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"><br style="font-size: 14.85px;" /></span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">恆指 </span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;">year to date</span><span style="background-color: white; color: #333333; font-family: arial, tahoma, helvetica, freesans, sans-serif; font-size: 14.85px;"> 回報:(14.0%)</span><br />
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- 目前投資世界的確是更兩極化,舊經濟股份如能源、金融、航空、旅遊等還在武漢肺炎的困境中苦苦掙扎。但以雲端為首的科技股的升浪更趨強勢,好些如AMZN, NFLX, SHOP, DDOG等己相繼再創歷史新高。2月中至3月中跌浪無疑很具震撼性、但自3月底的反彈也好得有點令人難以置信。<br />
<br />
- 目前y-t-d 回報己回復至很接近2月中27.7%的高位。在3月底至4月初反彈走勢開始確立時,重新買入股票但大盤走勢仍波動,的確心理壓力較大。但至4月初回升走勢趨於明顯時,集中買入具信心的股份上,追回至目前水平又著實不是太難。<br />
<br />
- 這一個月來的手風很順手,但y-t-d 回報回復至這個水平時,不應再進取。尤其是手頭上不少股份已進入高於50天線幅度的警戒水平上(10%-15% plus for big cap/ 20% to 30% plus mid/small cap),適時把部份持貨高位獲利套現,並等候調整再買入,才是進一步拋離指數的動力。<br />
<br />
- 長線十倍股有兩個重要的特質 game changing/ disruptive business。目前持股中有三數隻是尤具時特質的,大家應不難看到。<br />
<br />You'll Never Walk Alonehttp://www.blogger.com/profile/08272358683483397165noreply@blogger.com37