2012年6月15日星期五

風雨過後的片刻平靜


- 港股今天終出現突破性上升;惟升市的寬度仍稍嫌不夠,不少二、三線股動力不足;似是挾倉格局

- 很多周期性股份於反彈市中的表現不算太突出

- 即使希臘周日的選舉能順利過關;從環球宏觀指標看,今番環球經濟危機尚未見底:西班牙債券息率已升近7%的危險水平、Credit Suisse 股價已跌破09年底位(http://www.cnbc.com/id/47814396)、而美國近日疲弱的經濟數據反映再陷衰退風險增加

- 仍定性目前為熊市反彈,以50天線或250天線為反彈目標;適當時候要見好獲利

- 內房股跑羸大市的表現應可持續,惟短線看目前已炒得有點熱,暫不是適合的買入點

- 選擇性消費股(即零售消費類)的弱勢持續,經營環境可能較預期差;估計不少子板塊遇到類似體育用品板塊的競爭激烈問題、但有關消息尚未完全浮上水面

- 減息對內險股有利,但同時間國內保險業面對保費增長的結構性問題;只可作中短線區間買賣

- 減息對內銀淨息差的影響可能被誇大,內銀可能是挾倉的工具;暫時對這板塊尚有戒心

- 濠賭股的弱勢也令人失望,該板塊可能高峰已過

- 水泥股可能找到周期性的底部

- 投資組合近日少作買賣,不欲以太高持貨比重對應熊市反彈。組合中的持股早前已在相對高位運行,是故在這輪反彈的爆發力不算很強。組合中的AAC及TCL表現出了警號;但今輪反彈個股的表現很參差;故除非很有把握,否則不欲貿然換馬

目前組合:


GOCO (81) 11.8%
TCL Multimedia (1070) 10.4%
Great Wall Motor (2333) 10.2%
ENN Energy (2688) 9.1%
Towngas China (1083) 8.8%
AAC Technology (2018) 7.2%
BOCHK (2388) 7.2%
Cash 35.4%

65 則留言:

  1. You Sir
    NO.1 ^^
    覺得大市還是RANGE TRADING,在16100~24000之間.
    除非中國經濟出現嚴重硬著陸,或許是經濟轉型成功,否則都是在這個中間波動.

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    1. 由 2007 年開始每一個頂部不斷向下移, 一浪頂低於一浪頂, 24000 點係阻力之上, 升上去有點難度

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    2. 除非實體經濟真的很差,否則16000的支持會很強大

      但24000的上限是頗aggressive,恆指不少板塊面對結構性問題;如你所言,中港股市要創新高,需靠經濟轉型帶動

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    3. 同意經濟轉型是中港股市能否突破歷史高位的關鍵。我由上年的審慎樂觀,已變為中性。現在被迫放寬房地產保增長,已凸顯中國的救市招數不多,埋下房地產泡沫爆破的伏線。

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  2. 第二,我反而覺得依家買,瞌埋眼,等一年,將會大豐收,我過去一年組合下跌了4成,亦係過去四五來第一次見紅,輸約30多萬,所以我估計好快會大反彈,升到你唔信,8,9倍的市盈率快難復見.

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    1. 最怕只是一廂情願,危險也!

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    2. 如果上一年 10月才大手買入, 今年初的確大豐收, 但如果無放到, 等到現在, 好多股票甚至跌穿上一年的低位了。另外也無人能買在最低點。

      所以不要單看估值, 選股的質素也很重要。另外買入後不能瞌埋眼, at least 都每個 weekend 做一次檢討 ^^

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    3. 達人兄,我明白你諗法,但一個禮拜檢討一次對我咁懶嘅人來說太密了,至少半年至一年先理佢地,我只買弱勢股,一年後睇番,一係開始升番,唔係可能已摺埋.仲有兩個禮拜就6月尾,除咗會買新選嘅股,仲會為其十隻八隻已蝕了4,5成的股少量溝貨,好似思捷李寧廣船泰凌同好大機會新買嘅六福同周生生,澳門股雖然弱但未大跌,可能要兩年後先考慮了,总之各買各的心頭好,選錯就輸清光,除非有急事,否則點都唔止蝕。

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    4. 對Manfred的投資理念不能認同。我不會任意否定一種投資理念,但如用這方法持續兩、三年未能帶來合理回報時,便要認真檢討是否繼續執行這方法,或索性離場不玩,買指數基金算數

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    5. 此外,目前股市的估值是便宜,但離熊市的低位估值尚有一些距離。若太早以長線持有的心態撈貨的話,到股市跌至熊市真正低位居(如16000點)可能承受不了心理壓力而被震走

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    6. You sir,過去十多年已試了不同的投資方法,也止蝕了太多的股票,自06年再開始投資,我同自己講唔可以再走回頭路,只可以遵守自訂的遊戲規則,只買下跌的股票,持有至少一年等,我唔俾自己有選擇買什麼股票同買入賣出時間的權利,雖然我的投資方法沒有賺大錢,至11年6月組合只升了3成,沒跑贏大市,但每年也可以套現一些有賺的股票,對自己來說已是非常好了,雖然過去一年已输凸,但只是止蝕了很少,所以當它是帳面損失而已.如果出年6月底組合仍然無起息,我會放棄它,以後唔再理會,另外重新儲一筆錢,但唔會再買股票,只做回我的强項–定期存款.我的投資路上永遠只係孤獨一人而已,所以不需找人認同,自己08年在討論區公佈投資組合,也有唔少人問我點解仲未死得,話我買了很多工業股可以成為"工業家",我也無所謂,所以人話我係loser真係好少事.

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    7. 過去我也曾試過放任投資組合不理,如果我們是處於八九十年代的大型牛市,這個方法可能會work,但現在我們處於股市大型上落的後金融海嘯時代,要不斷求變和優化投資組合,才有機會在這種市況下取得較理想回報

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    8. 我反而後悔以往太貼市,買完後咩都唔准做係依家對自己嘅要求.

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    9. 草根兄:

      中國暫時不似會重踏日本之路,但不能完全排除這個可能性

      中央政府明白發展內需市場的重要性,但這數年來仍流於講多個做,估計要落實經濟轉型需面對不少政治阻力

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    10. Manfred 兄買殘股的理念有可取之處。但建議要分清股價低殘的理由,是因經濟或行業一時低迷而致股價低殘,或是因公司本身的結構性問題

      例如,很多水泥或航運股其實現價買入作一、兩年後翻倍也無妨;但思捷這公司,這數年來已有很多跡象反映公司好唔對路,應一早跳船

      存款息率在可見將來也會很低,若您想改投資策略,可考慮穩定高息股

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    11. 有日本前車之鑑, 中國應不會走上日本之路, 應該係話:"不會太快走上" ^^

      我又幾滿意中央領導的做法, 可能我要求較低。佢地講得多過做, 如 You Sir 所講是政治阻力, 而唔係無心做。加上整個國家咁大, 有時顧此會失頗, 國家大地方官員太多, 要做到統一廉潔沒有貪污也很難。

      至少我睇得到這十年間貪污方面是有進步, 過往明貪 (幾乎明搶) 變成今天都要收收埋埋, haha~~

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    12. 謝謝YOU SIR的指點,水泥航運股我是看好的,航運股己看好了四年,中海發展同廣船平均蝕4成,不過我仲可以多等四年,水泥股只買過安徵水泥,以前雖有賺但寧願從來沒有止賺過,至於思捷,同創科,六福,周生生一樣,等咗好耐先跌,依家係不問理由去買.對我來說,只會買冇前景的平股而唔買前途無限嘅貴股

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    13. 至於高息如公用股,暫時自己仲係全線高風險股,要買公用股的機會不大,但也感謝you sir詳儘的回覆

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    14. Manfred 兄, 你好, 岩岩睇完你既講解, 其實你既投資策略都有可取之處, 任何公司/行業都風水輪流轉, 再不景氣,挨過3~5年, 重整旗股, 應該會有番身既一日; 既然係上市既大公司, 唔會話倒閉就倒閉 (我估).

      世市難料, 無人會估到/預見將來既環境會係點, 殘價買入, 望他朝有日番身.番唔到身就唔放, 長keep. 最緊要係可以 free 番好多時間,唔使日日睇住個市. 同埋因為看錯市而落錯盤既風險.

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  3. You sir,

    1070其實已經大幅跑贏大市同751,1169
    當然佢突破就最好

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    1. 短線而言, TCL的動力有限, 持有都是以中線角度考慮

      前景基本上是okay的,但風險是電視製造始終要面對毛利率及價格下跌的壓力

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  4. Take a break to watch Euro 2012 football cup.

    Big Ox

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    1. 今次歐國盃的開賽時間不太理想,加上我又無裝NOW,年紀大了又不想捱太多夜波

      我想要到淘汰賽階段才追看

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    2. 希臘歐國杯奇蹟出線,有咩啟示 ^^

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    3. I think to-night's match is interesting. I have a router bought in Ap Liu street which can see the Canton Sports, CCTV5, ShenZhen Sports, ...

      Big Ox

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    4. Big OX

      No need to buy any router, go to some web-site, you can also see Canton Sports, CCTV5, ShenZhen Sports free

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    5. Cash,
      I think you are using PCCW. The quality of PCCW is much better if you want to view the Chinese web site. I am using Hutchison. Basically I can't see CCTV5, ... over the internet. It is always busy. I can only using the router with 3rd party channel to view it.
      Big Ox

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    6. Big Ox,

      Yes. I am using PCCW. However, sometimes i could not view some of the chinese web-site too

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    7. 草根兄:

      歡迎上來留言!多多交流

      希臘爆冷出線,或許會些微影響當地人的投票意慾

      8強很大機會是德國對希臘,到時會是一場有政治經濟話題的球賽

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    8. 澳門全面 CUT 左 CCTV5, 無得睇, 好慘!

      不過澳門電視台都有播, CCTV5 講波好鬼悶 ^^'''

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  5. http://go.bloomberg.com/euro-crisis/2012-06-17/greek-vote-too-close-to-call-exit-poll-shows/

    Greek Vote Too Close to Call, Exit Poll Shows

    As polling stations close in Greece, exit polls show there may be no conclusive winner: New Democracy had 27.5 percent to 30.5 percent of the vote, the exit poll broadcast on state-run NET TV showed. Syriza had 27 percent to 30 percent. Socialist Pasok got between 10 percent and 12 percent, according to the poll.
    UPDATE:
    Here is a more detailed breakdown of Greek exit polls, as broadbast by state-run NET TV
    Political Party Percentage
    New Democracy 27.5 – 30.5
    Syriza 27 – 30
    Pasok 10 – 12
    Independent Greeks 6 – 7.5
    Communist Party 5 – 6
    Golden Dawn 6 – 7.5
    Democratic Left 5.5 – 6.5

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  6. 似係和局收場,睇黎仲有排煩

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-18478982

    Greek election 'too close to call'

    Greece's right-wing New Democracy and left-wing Syriza parties are almost neck-and-neck after parliamentary elections, exit polls suggest.

    New Democracy, which broadly supports a European bailout deal, looked to be almost tied with Syriza, which opposes the measure.

    The outcome could decide Greece's future inside the euro.

    The election was the second in six weeks, called after a 6 May vote proved inconclusive.

    On that occasion, each of the main parties tried but failed to form a coalition government.

    BBC Europe editor Gavin Hewitt says that if the exit poll figures are confirmed in this result, Greece could be in for another period of instability.

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    1. 和局嗎?我今朝有報導話支持緊縮政黨已取得過半數, 左翼已認落敗?

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    2. 我昨晚臨睡前引述初步選後點票過程,今早醒來後應該是pro bailout的那一邊勝出

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    3. 短線可鬆一口氣, 但長線問題未解決, 我唔相信佢地會 100% 照歐盟要求的緊縮去做, 必定有排拗數 ~~

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    4. I think so. A government formed by multi parties usually means more chaos and instability ahead.

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  7. things should be alright for the short term at least

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-17/euro-rises-with-stock-index-futures-after-greek-elections.html

    Asian Stocks, Euro, Oil Advance on Greek Pro-Bailout Vote

    Asian stocks advanced and the euro strengthened as projections showed politicians that support Greece’s bailout won enough seats to control parliament, easing concern the currency bloc would lose one of its 17 members. Oil rallied while treasury futures declined.

    The MSCI Asia Pacific Index climbed 1.1 percent at 9:04 a.m. in Tokyo as the Nikkei 225 Stock Average (NKY) advanced 2.3 percent and Australia’s S&P/ASX 200 Index gained 0.7 percent. The euro added 0.6 percent to $1.2719, and the yen slumped 1.1 percent versus the common currency. Oil in New York rose to the highest in a week while 10-year treasury futures contracts fell 0.3 percent. Standard & Poor’s 500 Index futures added 0.6 percent

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-17/greece-races-as-cash-dwindles-with-europe-seeking-return-to-cuts.html

    Greece Races as Cash Dwindles With Europe Seeking Return to Cuts

    Greece’s two traditional political rivals are in a race to forge an unprecedented coalition as the state’s cash dwindles, bank deposits flee and Europe demands renewed austerity pledges before releasing more emergency aid.

    Greece will run out of money in mid-July, the Syriza party, which placed second in yesterday’s election, said on June 13 after being briefed by Acting Finance Minister Giorgios Zanias. Caretaker Labor and Social Security Minister Antonis Roupakiotis refused to offer assurances pensions will be paid in August, Athens News Agency reported the same day.

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  8. 西班牙債息又破頂升穿七厘,市場情緒隨時逆轉,憧憬完又玩憂慮

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    1. 沒完沒了的歐債危機...

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    2. 對,可以興奮一輪然後再擔心西班牙,市場情緒是可以很善變

      昨天的反彈闊度不夠,很多二、三線股都跟不上,所以還是適量增持現金水平至43%

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  9. Citron Reports on Evergrande Real Estate Group Ltd.
    Posted in Citron Reports by Stocklemon on the June 20th, 2012
    Deception on a Grande Scale

    Citron Research is pleased to present our analysis of Evergrande Real Estate Group. This research and analysis, compiled over several months, presents the conclusion that HK:3333 is essentially an insolvent company that has consistently presented fraudulent information to the investing public.

    We prove this conclusion in the following presentation.

    Evergrande is not a story about the “China real estate bubble”; rather it is a tale of a company who has abused the capital markets as well as the generous lending of the Chinese Government in order to enrich one man, aggrandize his personal ego and support his pet projects.

    Bribery, excessive spending, and off-balance sheet transactions are the foundation of Evergrande’s financials.

    The situation at Evergrande is so murky that, within the last year, even the Chinese Ministry of Finance fined Evergrande for reporting inaccurate financial statements.

    Citron wants to make one thing clear: we do not recommend shorting any of China’s state owned banks or any construction project backed by the Government of China. On the other hand, we believe that Evergrande has misled investors and represents the worst of Chinese neo-capitalism, and therefore represents a good short opportunity in relation to other exposure in the Chinese capital markets.

    Whether it be the capital markets, government enforcement, hard or soft landing, the endgame for Evergrande is a certainty; the only uncertainty is the timing.

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  10. Market profit taking?

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  11. 同You Sir 一樣,提這CASH LEVEL至4X%

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    1. 我的cash level 已在60%以上,汲取上次教訓,一見唔對路立即走人

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  12. 恆指升近50天線已遇到明顯阻力;反彈力度不足及突如其來轉回跌勢也是熊市反彈的character

    今次撤退總算來得不是太遲

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    1. 昨天開始洗到強股身上, 以及又有假數風波, 下一輪洗倉潮可能開始, 減持股票增加現金, 以及避開高風險民企係正路做法 ^^

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    2. 商品如白銀、期油、期銅等插得較急,是不是大市要開始尋中期底了呢?

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    3. Yes, I think so. Fortunately I offload some stocks yesterday

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  13. YOU SIR
    可吾分享下最近對大市的看法?
    大市應跌不跌,2,3線又被人洗,看不懂

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  14. you sir, in what cases would you change your view to more bullish??

    perhaps i need some spiritual support as im again 100%,,,but your holdings level does have an impact to my level of confidence

    Kan

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  15. Sold all stocks and bought 30k hk$ bear bear, hope be rich next tue when mr wu back to china

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  16. You sir認為煤炭股有否機會?
    1.煤股係上半年恒/國指狗股
    2.能源價如油,天然氣有支持, 應可帶動煤價
    3.近日電股轉弱而煤股轉強(如1171有放量升,1088以成市價計升穿1.5個月頭肩底)

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  17. All in bear, good luck to me!
    Cashier

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  18. 中國人民銀行決定,自2012年7月6日起下調金融機構人民幣存貸款基準利率。金融機構一年期存款基準利率下調0.25個百分點,一年期貸款基準利率下調0.31個百分點;其他各檔次存貸款基準利率及個人住房公積金存貸款利率相應調整。

    自同日起,將金融機構貸款利率浮動區間的下限調整為基準利率的0.7倍。個人住房貸款利率浮動區間不作調整,金融機構要繼續嚴格執行差別化的各項住房信貸政策,繼續抑制投機投資性購房。

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