環球能源新格局

海外財經網站近日引述IEA(International Energy Agency)的分析報告，認為美國對原油開採技術的突破，將為環球能源的供求格局帶來結構性影響。重點如下：


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/u-oil-production-shock-global-energy-markets-iea-142157377.html?vp=1

The supply shock created by a surge in North American oil production will be as transformative to the market over the next five years as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released today. The shift will not only cause oil companies to overhaul their global investment strategies, but also reshape the way oil is transported, stored and refined. According to the MTOMR, the effects of continued growth in North American supply – led by US light, tight oil (LTO) and Canadian oil sands – will cascade through the global oil market. Although shale oil development outside North America may not be a large-scale reality during the report’s five-year timeframe, the technologies responsible for the boom will increase production from mature, conventional fields – causing companies to reconsider investments in higher-risk areas. In virtually every other aspect of the market, developing economies are in the driver’s seat. This quarter, for the first time, non-OECD economies will overtake OECD nations in oil demand. At the same time, massive refinery capacity increases in non-OECD economies are accelerating a broad restructuring of the global refining industry and oil trading patterns. European refiners will see no let-up from the squeeze caused by increasing US product exports and the new Asian and Middle Eastern refining titans.

“North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, who launched the report at the Platts Crude Oil Summit in London. “The good news is that this is helping to ease a market that was relatively tight for several years. The technology that unlocked the bonanza in places like North Dakota can and will be applied elsewhere, potentially leading to a broad reassessment of reserves. But as companies rethink their strategies, and as emerging economies become the leading players in the refining and demand sectors, not everyone will be a winner.”
While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.

認為這個趨勢影響深遠，暫時想到的如下：

－　美國轉為能源出口大國，故美股近年的強勢是有其基本因素支持；減少依賴中東亦將轉變國際政治格局

－　中國將加緊開發油氣方面的投資

－　對依賴原油或相關煉油產品的下游企業有正面作用

－　全球通脹壓力舒緩

－　商品價格升勢無以為繼，甚至轉入熊市

－　增加從原油進口

－　燃氣價格和原油具相關性，燃氣價格低企有利下游的燃氣銷售商

美國房地產市道的復甦

美國現存房屋銷售

美國新房屋銷售

美國新房屋動土

美國新房屋興建批准

美國S&P Case Shiller 綜合房價指數

觀看這些數據的走勢，再加上QE3是針對MBS（按揭證券），增添對美國樓市復甦的信心

出絶招

歐洲央行終放風會考慮在市場上購買歐洲債券（即施行QE），這可能是一個重要的轉折點。一直以來，德國不肯揹起其他國家的債務，從而令央行購買歐洲債券這個措施無法推行。但德國近日的經濟數據顯著轉弱，令德國感到歐債危機迫在眉睫，取態上出現轉變。解決歐債危機還有很多路要走，中國經濟也要面對結構性問題；牛市重來言之尚早。但歐洲央行取態上的轉變卻可能令市場出現一個重要底部，至少歐洲行QE可買時間及舒緩市場的恐慌情緒。

目前組合：

GOCO (81)	11.8%
Towngas China (1083)	8.6%
CPIC (2601)	8.0%
Yuexiu Property (123)	7.5%
L' Occitane (973)	7.5%
China Resources Gas (1193)	7.2%
SUNAC (1918)	5.7%
Cash	43.7%

試簡要分析新一浪歐債危機

－　相信希臘在現情況退出歐羅區並違約，情況會較執行緊縮方案更差；因一個失去信用的國家要大量印銀紙才能支持本身的基本開支，且眨值對依賴進口的希臘絶非好事。希臘目前和德國玩的是鬥大遊戲，要威迫利誘希臘至原本方案的安排上仍是有可能的

－　根據早前對希臘債務的削髮建議，歐洲銀行已對希臘債務作了一定程度的撇帳；即使希臘全數違約，部分影響其實早已反映；但若希臘正式違約，為希臘作CDS擔保須付出賠款

－　希臘不是以一個平穩方式退出歐羅區，即使退出亦不代表經濟困境可以改善；暫不太擔心希臘退出會引起其他國家相繼退出的連鎖效應

－　和雷曼兄弟倒閉相比較好的是：希臘退出歐羅區並違約已被市場廣泛預期，一旦實現的話震撼性會較細、且希臘相關的CDS透明度較高，涉及的counter party risk較低；但較嚴重的是希臘債務規模較大

 粗略評估，即使最壞情況希臘退出歐羅區並違約，情況無０８年金融海嘯那麼嚴峻，但會較去年中時差一些。最壞情況下恆指或會略微跌破去年１０月初的低位

急轉直下 重創之後

本來意大利債券拍賣銷售理想，舒緩了一些恐慌情緒：

Treasuries Decline Before 30-Year Bond Sale as Italy Bill Demand Increases

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/treasury-30-year-bonds-reverse-gain-pare-biggest-weekly-rise-gross-buy.html

但目前論到法國債券息率上升，恐慌好像沒完沒了：

French Bond Risk Rises to Record as Crisis Spreads

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-10/corporate-bond-risk-rises-in-europe-credit-default-swaps-show.html

今次的下跌裂口太過巨大及突然，未有及時抽身而退也不應太怪責自己。但以今天的跌市的力度及市場濶度計、以及市場對意大利債息略為回落的反應不夠正面看；除非明天來個很有力的反彈，否則新一輪跌浪開展的機會頗高。除非明天有一個力度及濶度夠的反彈，否則會作具規模撤退，把持股水平減至４０％至５０％以下，視明天為逃生機會。

經上次教訓後，今次不會以空倉應戰；即使轉軚看淡，也會保留一些貨底。況且經近月的發展，即使中長線再轉入跌浪，出現今年８、９月份的插水式下跌機會不會太高。

微調立場 兩手準備

近日事態發展使我不得不調整早前的過份看淡立場：

－　從近日中國公佈的經濟數據、及企業的第三季業績／主要營運數字看，硬著陸風險著實不高。其中10月份HSBC　PMI由49.9反彈至51.1，頗具指標性（中國的第三季GDP增長雖放緩至9.1%，但我估計這是因順差收窄所致，其他數據反映內需動力仍充足）。樓市下滑仍是一個風險，但中國經濟增長依賴房地產程度相對不是太高

－　中央政策已有微妙轉變：

應付中小企融資問題：

http://finance.sina.com.cn/focus/xiaoweiqiye2011/index.shtml#

中央容許地方發債的啟示：

http://sixianghuayuan2.blogspot.com/2011/10/blog-post_21.html

－　不少具風險胃納指標及前膽性的三、四線股（尤其是早前跌得很殘的）開始出現一浪高於一浪、並升破長線跌軌之勢

美國方面，近日公佈的經濟數據，反映經濟增長雖差，但暫未至於雙底衰退。關鍵仍是歐債危機進展。我認為這個星期的歐洲峰會最少可傾掂希臘問題的善後。但這套解決方案，可否應付其他歐洲大國可能出現的財政信心危機，則仍有很大不確定性。

以下連結可使大家對歐洲各國的負債情況有多一些掌握：

http://edition.cnn.com/2011/BUSINESS/06/19/europe.debt.explainer/index.html

依這些資料看，下一個最有機會出危機的國家是意大利。向好的方面想，今次歐洲峰會可把歐債問題穩下來，那今次不過是一個溫和的熊市。但向壞的方面想，希臘危機可比作為金融海嘯的Bears Stearns（貝爾斯登），意大利／西班牙則是AIA或雷曼兄弟；那才是好戲在後頭。目前看來似乎仍是後者機會大些。

在好壞訊號爭持下，目前情況不宜過份企在任何一邊。我已表明很後悔１０月初沒有在很超賣水平增持股票。目前策略仍是找機會微調組合，把持股比重適量地調高，為大盤向牛或向熊發展作好兩手準備。選股方面，除了向來偏好的強勢股外，也會留意一些跌到殘的股份。

目前組合：

Brillance Automotive (1114)	6.5%
YGM (375)	5.9%
Cash	87.6%

政策上的微妙轉變

歐洲政府已明確表態要加強應付歐債危機的力度，尤其是加強強化銀行資本，及為較弱的歐債國家的債劵發行提供擔保等等。以下節錄這篇bloomberg報導的重點：

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-15/g-20-tells-europe-to-deal-decisively-with-debt-crisis-at-oct-23-summit.html

Europe Crisis Plan Wins Global Backing

Europe’s revamped strategy to beat its two-year sovereign debt crisis won the backing of global finance chiefs, who urged the region’s leaders to deal “decisively” with the turmoil when they meet for emergency talks in a week’s time.

European officials yesterday outlined the initiatives they’re considering at a meeting in Paris of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 economies. With the continent’s fiscal woes rattling financial markets and threatening the world economy, governments were urged to complete the plan at their Oct. 23 summit in Brussels and to tame the threat of contagion by maximizing the firepower of their 440 billion-euro ($611 billion) bailout fund.

Europe’s strategy, which has still to be made public, currently includes writing down Greek bonds by as much as 50 percent, establishing a backstop for banks and multiplying the strength of the newly-enhanced European Financial Stability Facility, people familiar with the matter said Oct. 14. Optimism the crisis may soon be tamed spurred stocks higher last week and pushed the euro to its biggest gain against the dollar in more than two years.


In the works is a five-point plan foreseeing a solution for Greece, bolstering of the EFSF rescue fund, fresh capital for banks, a new push to boost competitiveness and consideration of European treaty amendments to tighten economic management.

Options Discussed

Options include tweaking a July accord struck with investors for a 21 percent net-present-value reduction in Greek debt holdings. One variant would take that reduction up to 50 percent, the people said.

Under a more aggressive proposal, investors would exchange Greek bonds for new debt at a lower face value collateralized by the euro area’s AAA-rated rescue fund, the people said. The ultimate option is a restructuring involving writedowns without collateral, they said.

The bank-aid model under discussion is to set up a European-level backstop capitalized by the rescue fund, the people said. It would have the power to take direct equity stakes in banks and provide guarantees on bank liabilities.

Officials are considering seven ways of multiplying the strength of Europe’s temporary rescue fund. The options break down into two broad categories: enabling it to borrow from theEuropean Central Bank or using it to partly insure new bonds issued by distressed governments. The ECB has all but ruled out the first method, making bond insurance more likely, the people said.

EFSF Guarantees

EFSF guarantees of new bonds might range from 20 percent to 30 percent, a person familiar with those deliberations said. Recourse to bond insurance suggests the central bank will need to maintain its secondary-market purchases for an unspecified “interim” period, people said.

對歐洲政府能否澈底解決金融危機還有保留，尤其是解決意大利及西班牙的潛在危機，須更大量的財政資源及承擔；要協調各國的矛盾並不容易。也可參看陶冬博士的觀點：

欧洲的形势，就未必有股价反弹那么乐观了。银行股在被连续沽空两个月后，出现技术性反弹再正常不过，但是银行资本金不足、流动性短缺的局面并未得到实质性的改善。德法领袖、EU与ECB终于意识到欧债危机一拖再拖的后果是银行危机。他们承诺尽快提出解决方案，但是利益错位这块绊脚石根本没有消失。法国希望以EFSF为主体救银行，德国就不同意；EU（欧盟）提出将EFSF增杠杆来稳定市场，ECB（欧央行）则不答应。这些攻防的背后，是谁来买单的问题。笔者对欧洲全力救银行并不看好，不排除11月G20峰会前，欧债危机再次触发市场动荡。而且政府现在逼迫私人投资者“自愿”对希腊国债减债五成，对银行资本直接构成打击。


但可以肯定的是，在一至兩星期內，歐盟正式推出更大規模救市方案前；市場的憧憬會令市場的反彈得以維持。


關於中國，中央明確表態要支持中小企：

国务院出台支持小型微型企业发展政策

http://finance.sina.com.cn/focus/xiaoweiqiye2011/index.shtml#

當中不乏實質政策，例如對中小企貸款，可以有更寬容的存貸比率及資本金加權比重的。

這些可能是早前文章等待黎明三大訊號中的政策轉折點。走勢形態上熊市很少會在一次大插下完結，且我不相信歐債危機會這麼容易解決（至少須有一些國家退出，或終有力量驅使歐洲國家改善財政紀律）。但投資不應太死抱某一看法，太死牛或死熊。我主要看的三大風險胃納指標：美匯（尤其是澳元）、銅、及港股反彈的市場寬度等，今次反彈的力度可以很強。我仍傾向目前是熊市反彈，但仍會適量略為增持股票；以免被大盤拋離太多，及防範自己看錯的風險。

判斷失誤 須離場冷靜

國內黃金周期間，包括港股在內的外圍股市強勢反彈，但國內股市今天仍要跌近１％。我看作這是非常利淡訊號，反映國內經濟隱憂。恆指方面，升抵１０天線後反彈力度不繼，開市升百多點後，反倒跌並跌幅擴大；且除受惠黃金周數據利好的百貨零售股外，市場的跌幅也頗為廣濶；當時感到是做淡的機會。

有見歐洲央行近日加強救市力度，也不敢貿然造淡。下午三時歐洲開市後，恆指跌幅再顯著擴大，當時認為向淡的訊號已獲確認，便買入恆指熊證。誰不知恆指在收市前半小時Ｖ型反彈，短短半小時把２５０多點的跌幅完全收復。雖則注碼很少，損失有限；但也感到欠運及心痛。

周五西班牙及意大利被降評級，但刺激今天歐洲股市上升的，是這篇新聞：

Euro Leaders Target Bank Capital in Crisis Plan

Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy turned their crisis-fighting focus to banks, promising a recapitalization blueprint this month that will overtake a 12- week-old rescue plan that has yet to be put into place.

“We will recapitalize the banks,” the French president said in Berlin yesterday at a joint briefing with the German chancellor without providing details. “We’ll do it in complete agreement with our German friends because the economy needs it, to assure growth and financing.”

Facing rising pressure to defuse turmoil that’s raged for 19 months and growing concern Greece is headed to a default, Merkel said European leaders will do “everything necessary” to ensure that banks have enough capital. Sarkozy said they would deliver a plan by the Nov. 3 Group of 20 summit.

Searching for what each called a “durable” solution for Greece’s debt load shows they have moved beyond a July 21 plan that Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker called the “final package, of course.” Their approach may spike a debt swap now being negotiated that would impose a 21 percent write-off and suggests investors take a bigger share of the losses, reflecting the deterioration of the Greek economy.

“There is a big difficulty with respect to the Greek situation because it is looking as if the July 21 agreement just isn’t sufficient and that’s been increasingly recognized in Greece and the rest of Europe,” Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London, said today on Bloomberg Television’s On the Move with Francine Lacqua.

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-09/merkel-sarkozy-pledge-bank-recapitalization-in-crisis-plan-due-this-month.html

再加上近日歐洲央行對金融市場的注資行動，歐洲危機的政策轉折點或已出現，但前提是歐債危機不再擴散至西班牙及意大利。

匯金其實在今天已出手增持四大銀行並刺激其股價上揚；但國內Ａ股今天仍顯著下挫。中港股市大落後的表現已表明市場下一個憂慮焦點很大機會在我國：

国家队再出手 汇金增持四大行股价逆势上涨

中央汇金公司今日宣布，自10月10日起已在二级市场自主购入工、农、中、建四行股票，并继续进行相关市场操作。

受此消息影响，四大行的股价今日逆势走高，其中中国银行(2.87,0.02,0.70%)涨0.70%，农业银行(2.47,0.01,0.41%)涨0.41%，工商银行(3.99,0.01,0.25%)涨0.25%，建设银行(4.41,0.01,0.23%)涨0.23%。由于其他银行股不振，银行板块周一整体下跌0.30%。

http://finance.sina.com.cn/stock/y/20111010/162110593243.shtml

明天頗大機會把熊證淡倉止蝕平掉，蒙受輕微損失。多項指標反映環球形勢略回穩，今次反彈應可維持較長。但從中港股市的相對大落後表現推敲，本人今天選擇做淡也不是全無道理。近期的買賣成績欠佳，明天才為組合加倉也會失去先機，也不想被市場牽著走。趁目前組合表現仍是相對優於大盤時，應離場冷靜。

關於宏觀大勢的一些看法

先簡單地交待今天投資組合：（一）幸好今早已察覺市況有些不對勁，及時把數碼通（３１５）微利止賺、（二）當初因佐丹奴（７０９）的業務具防守性＋估值低＋比重不高，故無考慮止蝕並死牛，現時已受重創；反之早前投機性買入的一些股票，按紀律止蝕或止賺，效果不算太差。可見與其擁抱公司基本面，有時不如按紀律止蝕為佳、（三）連最具防守性的領匯（８２３）今天也大挫近5%，實在無言、（四）已持有逾８０％現金及持股全是defensive play，但今天組合也是一個多月來首次錄得逾１％的跌幅，可見市況的慘烈。

中港股市的跌幅比較歐洲及美國還要慘烈許多，令人擔心不單單是資金流向的問題；而是具效率的股市反映中國經濟的問題較我們想像嚴重很多，對此須有心理準備。坊間開始報導民企須以超高利息在非銀行渠道貸款，可見資金鏈的斷裂對中國實體經濟已構成打擊。擁有背景的國企在宏觀調控下，仍能取得銀行融資，但卻無有效運用資金的出路；反之具生產力、並有資金需求的民企卻無法取得資金；當中造成的資源錯配是近年令我失望的國情。長線來看，中國仍有結構性的增長動力，例如西部地區城市化、產業升級、及工資帶動的消費上升等等。由於經濟結構不同，即使中國樓市有較明顯的回落，我也不太擔心會影響其長期增長動力。但in the long run we were all dead，不要把近一周的暴跌完全歸究於市場不理性，而忽略我國中短線的下滑風險。

和０８年比較，今次金融海嘯第二波更困難的地方在於：（一）涉及的風險資產規模較當年為大，國家債務的層次和次按債券有所不同、（二）歐洲無一個有統領力的中央領導，在各懷鬼胎下，要找出一個各歐元成員國都接受的解決方案並不容易、（三）在財政赤字高企及通脹仍未下調下，各國可再出手刺激經濟的空間著實不多。但稍為利好的是：（一）歐債相關的off balance sheet洐生工具交易應無次按風暴時的那麼多，銀行之間的counter-party （交易信任）風險應無雷曼兄弟破產時那麼大，目前銀行之間的交易透明度應較當年為佳、（二）在雷曼兄弟前車可鑑下，各國應會有經驗去盡力避免系統性風險達致失控。以我粗淺的斷估，今次危機的底部無０８年金融海嘯的那麼深，但在底位俳佪的時間會比０８至０９年的為長。

以港股目前的跌勢及個股跌幅的廣泛及深，港股已有點熊三的味道；以目前這樣跌速，熊市有一定機會在數個月內完結。但看中港股市的利淡市場訊息，熊市低位可能要在我早前預測的下限，即在１６０００樓下。但同時中國及美國由於很難再推出如４萬億及QE的大規模救市行動，熊市見底後很難重現一個像０９年的升幅。

國王的新衣金融版：美國的後３Ａ時代

我認為Ｓ＆Ｐ把美國的３Ａ信用評級除去，就如國王的新衣童話故事中，指出國王沒穿衣服的小孩一樣。簡要看法如下：

－　有說法指金融機構的CAR（資本充足率）是以其指有的債券評級作計算。若大量金融機構持有的美債被降評級，會造成它們的CAR下降甚至乎不夠，造成新一資金緊縮。不過，這個看法需要一些量化分析支持

－　信貸評級被下調，或多或少總會影響企業的融資成本，對本已疲弱的美國經濟再加壓力

－　美元將下跌、黃金價格上升、股票市場近日的跌幅應尚未完全反映這個利淡因素

－　當市場震盪過後，對中國是一個好的掘起機會。美國在環球金融領導作用下降，和美國及歐盟相比，即使計及中國的潛在風險，中國仍是相對較穩健經濟；人民幣的地位勢必提升，亦加速人民幣國際化的進程

－　以往美債被視為無風險資產，所以過往西方國家出現金融震盪，資金回流美債；造成經濟基調較佳的亞太區（尤其是香港）的股市跌幅往往會大於風眼核心的美國。以後這種荒謬情況或會改變


星期一會先觀察各種資產市場的訊號再作行動，惟美國被降評級是從未試過，暫時傾向再度減磅