2011年9月26日星期一

關於宏觀大勢的一些看法

先簡單地交待今天投資組合:(一)幸好今早已察覺市況有些不對勁,及時把數碼通(315)微利止賺、(二)當初因佐丹奴(709)的業務具防守性+估值低+比重不高,故無考慮止蝕並死牛,現時已受重創;反之早前投機性買入的一些股票,按紀律止蝕或止賺,效果不算太差。可見與其擁抱公司基本面,有時不如按紀律止蝕為佳、(三)連最具防守性的領匯(823)今天也大挫近5%,實在無言、(四)已持有逾80%現金及持股全是defensive play,但今天組合也是一個多月來首次錄得逾1%的跌幅,可見市況的慘烈。

中港股市的跌幅比較歐洲及美國還要慘烈許多,令人擔心不單單是資金流向的問題;而是具效率的股市反映中國經濟的問題較我們想像嚴重很多,對此須有心理準備。坊間開始報導民企須以超高利息在非銀行渠道貸款,可見資金鏈的斷裂對中國實體經濟已構成打擊。擁有背景的國企在宏觀調控下,仍能取得銀行融資,但卻無有效運用資金的出路;反之具生產力、並有資金需求的民企卻無法取得資金;當中造成的資源錯配是近年令我失望的國情。長線來看,中國仍有結構性的增長動力,例如西部地區城市化、產業升級、及工資帶動的消費上升等等。由於經濟結構不同,即使中國樓市有較明顯的回落,我也不太擔心會影響其長期增長動力。但in the long run we were all dead,不要把近一周的暴跌完全歸究於市場不理性,而忽略我國中短線的下滑風險。


和08年比較,今次金融海嘯第二波更困難的地方在於:(一)涉及的風險資產規模較當年為大,國家債務的層次和次按債券有所不同、(二)歐洲無一個有統領力的中央領導,在各懷鬼胎下,要找出一個各歐元成員國都接受的解決方案並不容易、(三)在財政赤字高企及通脹仍未下調下,各國可再出手刺激經濟的空間著實不多。但稍為利好的是:(一)歐債相關的off balance sheet洐生工具交易應無次按風暴時的那麼多,銀行之間的counter-party (交易信任)風險應無雷曼兄弟破產時那麼大,目前銀行之間的交易透明度應較當年為佳、(二)在雷曼兄弟前車可鑑下,各國應會有經驗去盡力避免系統性風險達致失控。以我粗淺的斷估,今次危機的底部無08年金融海嘯的那麼深,但在底位俳佪的時間會比08至09年的為長。

以港股目前的跌勢及個股跌幅的廣泛及深,港股已有點熊三的味道;以目前這樣跌速,熊市有一定機會在數個月內完結。但看中港股市的利淡市場訊息,熊市低位可能要在我早前預測的下限,即在16000樓下。但同時中國及美國由於很難再推出如4萬億及QE的大規模救市行動,熊市見底後很難重現一個像09年的升幅。

27 則留言:

  1. 我也認同你的分析,港股弱得不合理,國內經濟可能是隱憂。

    股市升得太快未必是好事,上次牛一的升幅是罕見的。

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  2. Excellent trading. You sell 315 today. Fortunately I didn't buy it last Friday. I think it's potential is still good.

    Big Ox

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  3. you,你讀大時,你是看書還是看教授給你的notes的?還是你自制筆記?或以某項為主,加各方精華?

    你當年每天溫習多久?

    讀u仲辛苦過al?

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  4. YOU兄:如今期市底在16000,那從高位24989回檔就是36%,這個數字可以跟前幾次的熊市比較作推算。如得出熊三訊號,那就可試點出熊一及熊二位看看一切是否在估算之內。另現在風雨飄搖,會否寫一些專題,如下期不同板塊的必買首選股....

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  5. http://www.cnbc.com/id/44673564

    Officials Working on a Sovereign Debt TARP for Europe?

    European officials are working on a detailed plan aimed at shoring up European bank stability, according to an official who spoke with CNBC’s Steve Liesman.

    The plan appears to have a lot of moving parts. It would involve money from the European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF), a bailout vehicle created in 2010 to alleviate the sovereign debt crisis in Europe, to capitalize a special purpose vehicle that would be created by the European Investment Bank, a bank owned by the member states of the European Union.

    The special purpose vehicle would issue bonds to investors and use the proceeds to purchase sovereign debt of distressed European states.

    The hope is that this would alleviate the pressure on the distressed states and on the European banks that hold a lot of the distressed sovereign debt.

    The bonds issued by the special purpose vehicle could then be used as collateral for borrowing from the European Central Bank (ECB), allowing the central bank to make loans to banks faced with liquidity shortages.

    To put it more simply, banks loaded down with distressed sovereign debt would be able to sell the debt to the special purpose vehicle.

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  6. 我覺得以熊市跌幅百分比計,下跌 36% 並不足夠,通常以正常估值去推算底部,實際跌幅往往超出預期,底部通常都低於自己所推算的。如 08年我推算恒指底部應在 18000 點左右,所以18000 以來沒有再做淡,結果佢跌到 11000。

    有前輩指出任何自己推算的跌幅,最好再加多 20-30%落去,等自己已預備一個最壞的環境發生,我打算預了今次熊市底部,會由 25000 點下跌 5-6 成,即大約 12000 點或以下才是底

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  7. 從公用股仍有累積利潤看,現在很可能只是在跌市的初期。

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  8. Big ox: 很久無見,近來好嗎?!希望你早前已作適量減持,減輕在熊市中的損失

    屁股:我較喜歡上堂時jot notes。以考試的範圍之多及考試的壓力計,AL的難度絶不下於大學內的考試。你還是學生?!

    馬彼得:現時推算下一個牛市的上升板塊言之尚早。但從對上兩次牛市的觀察,在03至07年牛市能跑出的,在09至10年牛市跑出的機會也頗大(內銀及內險是例如)

    Pangsiu:這也是有用的補充,謝謝。我想公用股下跌的空間不會很大,我認為燃氣股有否追跌也是熊市是否見底的其中一個yardstick

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  9. 達人兄:以去年11月恆指25000作牛市高峰計,當時估值也不算瘋狂,我想PE大概是16倍左右,遠比以往牛市最高點時為低;所以我認為不適合把以往熊市跌幅套用在今次底部推算中。我認為用帳面值是有用的參考,參看我的舊文(http://ynwa-investment.blogspot.com/2011/08/blog-post_08.html),以往熊市的低位的最低市帳率估值,和當時經濟危機的嚴重程度基本上是相配的。推算熊市低部很多程度上是斷估:若目前是一個普通的經濟低潮,熊市在16000至17000足可見底;但若中國有嚴重問題浮現,恆指最差情況可跌至帳面值以下,即14000或更低;最懷情況是0.9倍P/Book,即12800附近。所以還是要視乎宏觀情況的演變,尤其是中國有否大問題爆煲。中國經濟目前表面上無大問題,但很多blog友都覺得隱隱有些不妥,這是要留意的地方

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  10. 你是一句完整句還是句中重點

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  11. Going out for Primary school interview and just back this afternoon, since 315 move so little just add some at 12.78.
    hopefully the rebound may last for a few more days.

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  12. 我今天下午買進了些許315, 現價離我目標買入價不遠, 指數今天大幅反彈, 或許月底這幾天應該還可保持強勢, 因此略微提前了撈貨.

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  13. 如果以 17000 點有可能係底部,那麼昨天已到位了,今天的振奮性爆升,會唔會恒指已見底呢?當然每一次見底都是事後才知,但以今天的升勢來看,姑且不估是否見底,至少應該是一個反彈的開始吧? :D

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  14. 屁股:只是好奇一問,兄台提出的問題似乎反映閣下還是學生^^

    yfchan & tontongood:今天升得多的都是早前跌得很殘的股票,反而早前的相對強勢股今天卻沒有多大反彈,這是稍為需要留意的

    達人兄:昨天是熊底的機會很細,其中一個理據是市面上還未感受到經濟轉差。通常社會上普遍感受到經濟轉差,且報章及財經雜誌又用經濟衰退等做大標題,那便應應底不遠了

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  15. hi! thank you for sharing your view to us. I learnt a lot. However, as per today's stock market's performance, everything grow like they never know what you said.......personally I sold all my stocks at 18XXX points and I thought I am lucky to escape the drops from there to 17XXX. However, as per today, I missed the good chance to gain say 10% in one day!>!>!>!!>!!

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  16. 多謝you sir提醒.

    我今天買進315只是占了整體組合不到2%, 目前現金還是約2/3.

    現在撈貨, 我嘗試拉開買入價, 并且買入點儘量選在支持位以期有機博得一些熊市反彈, 每次的注碼也是很少, 希望在風險和回報之間找到個平衡.

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