2011年9月21日星期三

體育用品股的資金周轉期分析

把主要體育用品股近六個半年度的營運資金周轉期列出。可以看出板塊內股價表現較佳的安踏(2020)及361度(1361),正是在營運資金周轉期(尤其是存貨周轉期管理)做得較好的公司。(營運資金周轉期=應收帳周轉期+存貨周轉期-應付帳周轉期)

 李寧(2331) 安踏(2020)
應收帳存貨應付帳營運資金應收帳存貨應付帳營運資金
2H0848.6 61.4 68.7 41.3 2H0816.3 50.5 41.9 24.9
1H0945.1 54.9 67.9 32.2 1H0916.6 48.2 32.4 32.5
2H0947.0 53.0 70.1 29.9 2H0915.5 37.9 34.8 18.7
1H1048.2 49.5 67.8 29.9 1H1017.3 44.4 35.0 26.8
2H1051.6 52.5 71.2 32.9 2H1019.0 35.7 35.7 18.9
1H1152.9 59.5 77.2 35.3 1H1123.6 37.3 33.4 27.5
 中國動向(3818) 匹克(1968)
應收帳存貨應付帳營運資金應收帳存貨應付帳營運資金
2H08N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.2H08N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.
1H0921.3 46.4 67.3 0.3 1H09N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.
2H0934.1 52.9 70.6 16.4 2H0969.7 35.8 8.1 97.4
1H1027.7 44.7 64.9 7.6 1H1069.1 41.7 13.3 97.5
2H1045.8 50.9 71.1 25.6 2H1063.1 37.8 13.5 87.4
1H1158.6 78.4 61.3 75.7 1H1158.2 44.6 16.3 86.4
361度(1361)特步(1368)
應收帳存貨應付帳營運資金應收帳存貨應付帳營運資金
1H09N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.2H08N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.
2H09N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.1H0961.8 59.8 71.6 50.0
1H10N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.2H0954.0 46.9 67.3 33.6
2H10N.A.N.A.N.A.N.A.1H1061.9 47.5 71.5 37.8
1H1195.1 21.8 102.5 14.4 2H1051.2 50.2 69.2 32.2
2H1182.8 19.1 46.8 55.1 1H1160.8 76.1 59.6 77.3

13 則留言:

  1. Holding plenty of cash to bottom fishing, but really hesitating.

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  2. tontongood: I have intention for bottom fishing as I'm cash rich now. But very few stocks can meet my criteria, I am monitoring 1193, 1836 and 2020. But other than 2020, the first two have not plunged enough. What are the stocks in your shortlist?

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  3. I am interesting in stocks already plunged some time and show some resistance recently, like 2038, 552.
    Only thinking at this moment.
    BTY, 592 attractive with high dividend, but another retailer?

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  4. China September HSBC Flash PMI Falls to 49.4

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/44619476

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  5. this is crazy, just bought some 315 at 13.62.

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  6. Smartone shoule be a reasonable choice for bottoming out. I'm still on the sideway coz the HSI is not oversold enough, e.g. RSI and HSI deviation from the 50 MA, etc. I've already outperformed a lot by holding enough cash, no need to be too rush to bottom fish in the moment.

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  7. yfchan said 361 is bad

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  8. plus a little 590 at 26.45, I am buying very slowly.
    Look at 2877 and you know bottom fishing can be very dangerous.

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  9. 屁股: 我想陳sir意思是說361度相對不太吸引,不算是太負面評價

    tontongood:六福剛跌破250MA,在這情況,除非很有把握,否則還是宜忍手

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  10. you sir and 屁股: 我的意思是361身處的行業和它的定位已經從前幾年的藍海變為紅海, 雖然在一眾同行中, 它的數字比較好, 但很有可能只是一堆矮子裏面的高個子. 如果行業被調低估值, 它也難獨善其身.

    tontongood and you: 對於590, 我同意you的看法, 目前基金洗倉潮可能還沒有結束, 590這類基金帳面利潤還是豐厚的股份很有可能成為他們套現的對象.

    對於315, 它的市帳率高是個隱憂, 基於風險控制因素, 我傾向要求它有高點的息率, 目前約5厘的派息可能只是合理而非超值, 在這個熊市裏面, 6,7厘的息率應該才有吸引力, 因此我希望的吸納價格是在11元左右. 不過, 不知道明年315業績可以達到多少, 有印象見到有人提到可能可以有近1元, 如果真是如此, 那現價應該有吸引力了.

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  11. 陳sir: 根據市場預測,數碼通來年派息每股可達0.86,目前股息率等同6.3%

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  12. yes 2020 and 361 are good.
    I have already made some profit from 2020 before.
    Now the market is fluctuating. If we bet China to be good, this is the time to show hand on some local stock in HK. 823 is a good one and I hate myself to miss the chance!
    Another watchlist is 4 & 17.

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  13. Kevin: 4&17 are not defensive enough in an economic downturn

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