2012年5月16日星期三

試簡要分析新一浪歐債危機


- 相信希臘在現情況退出歐羅區並違約,情況會較執行緊縮方案更差;因一個失去信用的國家要大量印銀紙才能支持本身的基本開支,且眨值對依賴進口的希臘絶非好事。希臘目前和德國玩的是鬥大遊戲,要威迫利誘希臘至原本方案的安排上仍是有可能的

- 根據早前對希臘債務的削髮建議,歐洲銀行已對希臘債務作了一定程度的撇帳;即使希臘全數違約,部分影響其實早已反映;但若希臘正式違約,為希臘作CDS擔保須付出賠款

- 希臘不是以一個平穩方式退出歐羅區,即使退出亦不代表經濟困境可以改善;暫不太擔心希臘退出會引起其他國家相繼退出的連鎖效應

- 和雷曼兄弟倒閉相比較好的是:希臘退出歐羅區並違約已被市場廣泛預期,一旦實現的話震撼性會較細、且希臘相關的CDS透明度較高,涉及的counter party risk較低;但較嚴重的是希臘債務規模較大

 粗略評估,即使最壞情況希臘退出歐羅區並違約,情況無08年金融海嘯那麼嚴峻,但會較去年中時差一些。最壞情況下恆指或會略微跌破去年10月初的低位

21 則留言:

  1. 我都認為希臘在玩鬥大, 但如果歐盟再容許希臘 hair cut 或者即使希臘不執行緊縮之下仍然救佢, 咁我覺得由得佢出局好過。因為咁會影響其他國家對緊縮的執行力, 原來聲大夾惡係 work 既, 就會大把國家效法了

    另外目前問題是中國經濟增長放緩, 但 08年那一次中國仍是高增長, 而且有問題立即用 4 萬億救了。今次卻不能太大力度去救。

    雖然我唔係認為最壞情況必定發生, 但心底先預了會發生既可能性 ^^

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  2. Hi You Sir, 吾好意思, 想講些少題外話...

    剛知道杜格利殊被炒, 小弟呆左數秒, 吓?! 咁都得?! 杜帥在今季面對內憂外患, 管理層何曾支持過佢!! 有而家的成績已算不俗, 仲想點呀!! 寄語管理層, 若想好似食即食麵咁sure win, 就搵摩連奴或哥迪奧拿啦, 小弟吾係利記支持者, 但都忍吾住出聲!!

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    1. 感情上我對杜格利殊被炒感到可惜及不捨得

      但現實上,今季利物浦的聯賽成績很差;杜格利殊在球賽臨場應戰及用人排陣上亦有不少要商確的地方。在剛過去的一季,利物浦用了數千萬歐羅買人,管理層算是有合理支持

      當然,杜格利殊也有正面貢獻:除了贏得聯賽盃外,在球隊打法上亦想走回80年代全盛時期的pass & move 打法

      我個人想前任領隊賓尼迪斯接任,但管理層對他興趣好似不大

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  3. You Sir
    希臘提款潮 一日流走70億
    危機恐蔓延西班牙債息6.5厘新高

    如果希臘失控,HSI可能又要見15000~16000.
    唉...

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    1. 平常心面對,我已有心理準備會出現這情況;只要目前保存好實力,到時又是一個中長線買貨的大好機會

      目前組合現金比率41%,適當時候或會再提升

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  4. 引頸一快退出歐元區, 長線對歐洲係好事, 短期衝擊在所難免, 短線大跌反而提供買貨機會。最怕又把問題拖延, 咁就真係大獲

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    1. 以現時環球股市這樣跌法,到希臘真的退出歐羅區時,出現反低潮倒升也不出奇

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    2. 都同意, 當大家都預期佢會退出時, 股市必定會預先反映, 有可能這一浪已是直插到底, 佢真退出時反而明朗化。若果有驚喜它不退出股市更加可以回升到癲 (對市場有驚喜但對我無驚喜 ^^)

      要把握這一跌浪 ^^

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  5. never ending problem, suck

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-16/ecb-stops-lending-to-some-banks-as-draghi-talks-exit-correct-.html

    ECB Stops Loans to Some Greek Banks as Draghi Talks Exit (Update 2)

    The European Central Bank said it will temporarily stop lending to some Greek banks to limit its risk as President Mario Draghi signaled the ECB won’t compromise on key principles to keep Greece in the euro area.

    The Frankfurt-based ECB said yesterday it will push the responsibility for lending to some Greek financial institutions onto the Greek central bank until they have sufficiently boosted their capital. “Once the recapitalization process is finalized, and we expect this to be finalized soon, the banks will regain access to standard Eurosystem refinancing operations,” the ECB said in an emailed statement.

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  6. You Sir,
    最近还有否update"曾氏通道"?

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    1. 可以考慮,不過老實說這個並非目前最優先的項目

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  7. You sir, 會否考慮殘股323?
    2012 PB ~0.4, back to 4Q11 range (but in the future, unlikely to be as bad as 4Q11)
    technically, uptrend since 4Q08 (~$1.6) should have strong support

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    1. 估值無疑是低殘,但個人對鋼鐵股興趣真的不太大,尤其是目前經濟周期仍不甚明朗

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  8. DEAR YOU SIR,

    请问您是否还持有2777,我见她前些天股价坚挺的很,抱着宁可买入强势股也不买弱势股的心态买入了她,没有想到这两天居然狂跌10%,真是欲哭无泪啊!

    请问您是否还看好她呢?

    RABIT

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    1. 通常強勢股在跌浪的後段才會追跌及被洗;大盤已嚴重超賣,目前不是沽貨的合適時候

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