2012年11月30日星期五

11月份月結:超越大盤

目前組合:

Anton Oilfield Services (3337) 11.8%
China Resources Gas (1193) 9.0%
AAC Tech (2018) 8.6%
Hysan Development (14) 8.0%
Tianneng Power (819) 7.8%
Greentown China (3900) 6.5%
Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) 6.0%
Poly Property (119) 5.8%
Honghua (196) 5.5%
Shimao Property (813) 5.5%
Great Eagle (41) 5.3%
Techtronic (669) 5.3%
Geely Auto (175) 4.9%
Cash 9.8%

11月份回報:7.4%
年初至今回報:23.5%



- 幾經鑽研,今年的投資回報終超越大盤;但和以往牛市的投資表現相比,表現相對上仍不太理想

- 今個月的回報理想,很大程度上是由安東油田服務(3337)帶動;月初積極重新買入內房股,對組合回報也有顯著貢獻

- 從這個月個股的表現體會,更認同友blog達人兄早前所言:牛市中追入一再創新高的股票,勝算遠較追落後的為高

- 經一番投資合調配後,組合持股的焦點也很自然集中在牛市中的強勢股之上

- 今個月主要的失敗是買入巨騰國際(3336)招致交易虧損;此外,看中了好些爆升股票,但因一時的疏忽以及遲疑以及沒有買入

- 月中沽出宏華(196)及中海油服務(2883)的決定也做錯了,當時是因對大盤回調的擔憂而作出控制風險的動作。再次提醒自己:個股的沽出決定應以個股考慮多於大盤考慮、若對該股的FA有信心,除非TA很差,否則牛市中儘量不要因一時走勢較差而沽出手上持股

24 則留言:

  1. 小弟實在不能同意更多!
    係牛市中期,選中幾個牛氣板塊,再選出每個板塊的領袖強勢股,上升1 round 後,整固期間加注,嚴守止蝕,應該係最好策略

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 對,其中一取勝之道是監察牛市中每個升浪的領導板塊及領袖股

      早前沽出的1083及123,也有意慾趁調整再買入

      刪除
  2. 跟踪板塊及熱錢的流向,除了要有信心外,膽色及眼光很重要。 YouSir 以上一直很準,持貨能力亦可見一班,利害!

    回覆刪除
  3. you sir ging. far out-performed HSI
    mine is only in-line with HSI

    Kan

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. what i have learnt in the recent months is the less i trade the better result i achieve

      Kan

      刪除
    2. You Sir 勁!我真是可惜沒有趕上最牛板塊燃氣設備, 因為這個板塊對我黎講好陌生, 當初又對自己的眼光信心不足, 明顯見到價量支持的突破, 但都沒有追入, 而且投入內房板塊的程度也是不夠, 只有一隻 1918 係手 (私人持有 3377), 買的比重也不夠。隨着試驗過強股方法是可行, 將來希望我能夠更有信心放胆去馬! ^^

      Kan 兄: 絕對同意, 減少交易次數對投資績效起正面作用, 這一點我也是近排才得以改善, 以前太多無謂交易 =_='''

      刪除
    3. again, 大錢係要坐番黎

      刪除
    4. 達人兄:近來閣下選中不少爆升的牛股,相信給多些耐性持貨,投資表現會大有改善

      Cash、Kan:加強對個股基本面的認識,及對公司估值有個概念,應可給信心持貨耐些。我投資組合表現較好的時間,恰好也是做得交易較少的(但又不會是最少交易的那一段)

      刪除
    5. Thanks for your advice. I used to be very into fundamental analysis. However, FA didn't take me to success. While investment banks and funds have thousands of analyst following up companies and doing analysis, I tend to believe market price has reflected all public information already. In other words, if I was to do detail FA using public information i should never be able to find any under priced stocks.

      I then tend to believe TA. I think a systematic trading system should be the way to go. All my TA skills are actually based on yours and Cup sir. haha....

      regards,

      刪除
    6. Kan,

      Your sharing made some points as nowadays retail investors are in an inferior position in accessing FA updates compared to professional analysts and fund managers. Nonetheless, blogger yfchan made a case in how a retail investor can use FA to pick rising stocks. You can learn his mindset from his recent article (http://yatfeichan.blogspot.hk/2012/11/blog-post_29.html).

      I think FA is much more than reading financial figures. What’s more important is to grasp the earnings catalyst of a company, such as industry growth prospect and company’s competitive strength/strategy, etc.

      Though my recent articles mainly focuses on TA and trading strategy, FA still plays a major role in my investment decision making. Nowadays I seldom write FA articles because of time constraints due to daily workload.

      To sum up, FA should be used for sector and stock pick, while TA can verify your FA view and determine the buying and selling point.

      刪除
  4. YOU SIR
    我有留意A股,萬科A已成功突破左,如果它是帶領者,內房會回升,相關板塊都會開始好番.內銀又會少一個憂慮.所以自己對A股的看法是很接近見底

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. A股見底我相信是雖不中亦不遠矣,只是把握尚未很高;其中原因在於A股的估值雖已頗便宜,但目前尚未到非常吸引的地步

      刪除
  5. 回覆
    1. You sir 對來年水泥股有信心?

      刪除
    2. 有機會復甦,而城鎮化應會是來年投資主題

      刪除
  6. 眾多Bloger。最佩服的是you sir.真金不怕紅火爐。又真又有料。向you sir學習!

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 過獎了,投資博客中,值得交流及學習的blog還有不少

      刪除
  7. Easily Increase Your ClickBank Traffic And Commissions

    Bannerizer makes it easy for you to promote ClickBank products with banners, simply visit Bannerizer, and get the banner codes for your favorite ClickBank products or use the Universal ClickBank Banner Rotator Tool to promote all of the ClickBank products.

    回覆刪除