2018年8月8日星期三

失望的7月份 暫且以靜制動

目前組合:

Amazon (AMZN US) 11.7%
Netflix (NFLX US) 11.1%
Twitter (TWTR US) 10.9%
Microsoft (MFST US) 10.5%
Adobe (ADBE US) 9.4%
Sales Force (CRM US) 9.1%
Disney (DIS US) 9.0%
HealthEquity (HQY US) 9.0%
Cash 19.4%

組合Year to date 回報:-1.6%
標普500Year to date 回報:6.9%
恆指Year to date 回報:-5.2%

- 過去一個月,投資組合表現失望地轉為顯著落後指數。其一原因是受疲弱的港股拖累,其二是受Netflix及Twitter業績過後,市場反應欠佳並股價大跌

- 先談容易處理的港股部份。事態發展趨於明顯,Donald Trump今次是認真借貿易戰對付中國,美國拉攏歐盟於貿易上圍堵中國,加上內房股走勢惡劣及國內企業違約上升;形勢非常不利。即使港股的部位並不多,也要再次全線撤離港股

- 美股方面,大部份持股的走勢仍很對板及滿意,但Netflix及Twitter業績過後的裂口大跌的確是令人心痛及失望,尤其是Twitter 公佈業績當周剛好外遊而未能處理。但檢討過後仍暫且繼續持有,原因是相信此是中短期的業績落差多於長期趨勢的轉變

- 如之前的檢討指出,對於基本面有很信心的公司,不妨要更忍受市場波動並耐心持有。尤其是很多投資blogger已體會到美股有更多長期為股東創造價值、並具企業謢城河的公司,如純因股價大成交裂口跌破支持位的那一套技術指標而沽出的話,效果多不理想

- 回顧我美股的沽出經驗可大致分為兩類。以頂級優質美國企業計,即具品牌知名度、行業龍頭地位、持續的盈利增長點、企業謢城河 etc,籠統點說即FANG的那一種檔次。如根據所謂的技術沽出訊號操作的話,大部份情況end up要被迫高價買回。這些高增長企業的估值及累積升幅高,一次業績稍為未如理想便可引發大量短線獲利回吐沽盤。若把持不住而跟隨諸如大成交裂口低開的技術訊號沽出的話,下次業績mean reversion到正常趨勢的話便要高價買回,得不償失。我於Amazon及Nvidia的買賣經驗對此尤為體會

- 此外,歸納我根據技術指標沽出而成功避過下跌走勢的美股,大致上有周期性的半導體相關的LRCX, AMAT, BRKS, AEIS etc;或於產業鏈並非處掌控地位電訊設備供應商ACIA, ANET etc、及零售股ULTA, LB等。這些公司均非屬於FANG檔次的公司

- 觀看Netflix及Twitter的周線走勢圖,目前仍可視之為長期升勢中的大型調整,且長期走勢逆轉是需要一些時間成形。的確對此兩公司目前是有一些顧慮,但暫看不出會扭轉長期盈利增長的趨勢。當然,以中國為首的新興市場是一個風險,但暫仍未見波及到美股


Conviction Buy List (確信買入名單)
美股
Adobe (ADBE)
Amazon (AMZN)
Apple (AAPL)
Salesforce (CRM)
Intuitive Surgical(ISRG)
Microsoft (MSFT)
Twitter (TWTR)

18 則留言:

  1. 請問點睇香港樓市? 有冇研究?

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    1. 難道兄台仍睇好香港樓市?有何高見?

      香港樓價已是高處不勝寒。況且失望地香港政治環境已趨於和國內同化,我看不到大陸聰明錢未來仍有很大意欲投往香港樓市

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    2. 我相信經濟週期循環,但美國加息引發資金回流,大陸債務問題等論點在2013年已講左好耐,呢5年樓市亦升左好多。

      身邊唔好朋友親戚都相信樓市只升不跌,一個個都在今年買樓了,仲呼籲棄股換樓,觀點不外乎,香港地少人多,樓房供應不足,作為一個股票投資者,看到投資樓房比股市近年更輕易獲利,實在感到無奈。

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    3. 我很相信目前是樓市上升周期的尾段,上升周期的後期是很誘人,看您有否定力把持自己的理財觀念

      當然您可argue美股也處牛市的後期,但股票脱手遠較房地產容易。且買房子須動用按揭,本質上為高槓桿投資,一旦經濟周期逆轉損失可以很大

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  2. 都係, 主力美股就算, 港股可能繼續無限車落去, 係平丫不過無人買咁解

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    1. 連硬淨的教育股及2382也被洗倉、而網游推出也被當局暫停,令700再受打擊,中資股的確令人心灰意冷

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  3. 回覆
    1. https://seekingalpha.com/article/4197510-netflixs-house-cards-crumbling

      Netflix's 'House Of Cards' Is Crumbling

      Online content streaming is becoming extremely crowded, with several new announcements and developments this month from Walmart to Roku sending Netflix stock plummeting.

      The initial roughly 14% drop Netflix suffered after its mixed earnings report have worsened this month amid seemingly rapidly increasing competition.

      Netflix's growth has been pegged on it continuing its immense market share but it seems now general subscription price pressure may be downwards and its market dominance shaky.

      Even if Netflix continues to grow, a contraction in its growth multiple is very likely to reduce valuation gains significantly.

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    2. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3382442-nvidia-unveils-turing-architecture-three-graphics-cards-coming-q4

      Nvidia unveils Turing architecture, three graphics cards coming in Q4

      Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) officially unveils its Turing GPU architecture and it looks like the gaming-focused GeForce GPUs will debut at the Gamescom event on Monday.

      Nvidia says Turing “features new RT Cores to accelerate ray tracing and new Tensor Cores for AI inferencing which, together for the first time, make real-time ray tracing possible.”

      Ray tracing is a rendering technique that produces realistic lighting effects in games.

      Nvidia says Turing can render graphics 6x faster than its Pascal-based chips. The Turing architecture also features Tensor Cores, processors to accelerate deep-learning training and inferencing for up to 500T tensor operations a second.

      Three Turing graphics cards are set for a Q4 debut: Quadro RTX 8000 (48GB memory, estimated price of $10K), Quadro RTX 6000 (24GB, $6,300), and Quadro RTX 5000 (16GB, $2,300).

      Head to The Verge to see the Gamescom teaser video and why it hints at the GeForce debut.

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  4. Nvidia 盤前下跌約4%,但公司所謂的第三季指引偏低,部份是因guidance 不再包括cryptocurrency相關收入,故不可完全同比。此外,公司剛推出的Turing architecture也應是革命性產品

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    1. Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) drops 5% after Q2 results that beat estimates with a 40% Y/Y revenue growth. Downside Q3 guidance has revenue of $3.19B to $3.32B (consensus: $3.34B) and EPS of $1.85 to $2.02 (consensus: $1.99).

      Revenue breakdown: Datacenter, $760M (+83% Y/Y; consensus: $743.6B); Gaming, $1.8B (+52%; consensus: $1.75B); Professional Visualization, $281M (+20%; consensus: $257.5M); Automotive, $161M (+13%; consensus: $147.6M); OEM and IP, $116M (-54% Y/Y and -70% Q/Q; consensus: 187.2M) on lower cryptocurrency mining demand.

      https://seekingalpha.com/news/3383674-nvidia-minus-5-percent-downside-guide-crypto-related-oem-revenue-drop

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    2. NVDA形勢都良好, 所以買下又沽下

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    3. 早前Nvidia的季績營業額未算非常理想,但注意到只係非主營cryptocurrency採礦業務的落差,其他核心業務的表現還是很對板

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    1. 近排全力美股, 果然係有貨交, 我第一隻美股係買GOOGLE, 但似乎佢個廣告收入好快會俾AMZN分薄, 所以很久沒有買回GOOGLE了

      利記又開季好似形勢好良好咁,個龍門令人期待

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    2. 忽略到Amazon的競爭風險,但在牛市背景下,這些大型科技股在跌近50天線買入的值搏率應該不錯

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