2019年6月14日星期五

重上獲利軌道

目前組合:

Zscaler (ZS US) 19.5%
Match (MTCH US) 13.5%
MongoDB (MDB US) 11.8%
Amazon (AMZN US) 10.8%
Twilio (TWLO US) 10.5%
Zynga (ZNGA US) 10.3%
Disney (DIS US) 9.7%
PayPal (PYPL US) 9.6%
Cash 4.2%

組合 year to date回報:7.1%
標普500 year to date年回報:15.3%
恆指 year to date 回報:5.0%

- 投資表現開始重上軌道,跑羸恆指及拉近和美股指數的距離。過去半過月,投資組合買賣不多,無很大變化。開始重拾跑羸大市的步伐,不外是靠持有受市場追棒的高增長股取勝

- 進攻是最佳的防守、以及靠持股質素控制風險;是我以往大幅跑贏指數的門路,也是我的投資理念。只是過去數年時間曾經迷失,也不可全怪責自己,畢竟港股具高成長性及放心持有的選擇不多;轉戰美股後己再有海濶天空的感覺

- 中美搏奕以及聯儲局等宏觀因素仍不明朗,但回到以往心法,把焦點放在公司能否維持盈利高增長,而非種種宏觀因素上,心態上放鬆了不少。如非出現大型熊市,以目前的方向大有機會再跑贏指數

- 把選股定得嚴謹,準則不外乎是有明確的 entry barrier,競爭優勢及增長前景等。以往太多是買入走勢稍為好轉,基本面不差但欠缺很非常明確賣點的公司,而致買錯貨的機會增加。除目前持股外,核心觀察名單的公司其實不多

21 則留言:

  1. Sell ZNGA US Buy TTD US

    投資者似乎對Zynga發債不太受落,應是擔心籌集太多現金而作出太進取的投資

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    1. 加至占20%? You Sir 似乎極之看好ZS及MDB

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    2. 關於MDB,這個Seeking Alpha的留言可概括我看好的睇法

      Looking only on revenue multiples without mentioning a word on the business is not a good way to invest. You MUST understand the market of MongoDB, you MUST understand what is a document-based database, know the competitors, what is NoSQL vs. SQL database.
      The database market is huge, one of the largest markets is tech. Oracle technology is more than 40 years old. Table-database does not fit to many of the modern usages. Now, MongoDB is the largest No-SQL database company in the world, by FAR. It is already a standard for developers to know how to work with MongoDB. Document-based database is much more natural to work with for web products. Now, most of the world is moving to the cloud/web, I believe soon almost all ERP systems will be managed by cloud services through the web. Probably, these systems will move to the more convenient database to use over the web, that is document-based database.
      The estimates are that document-based database market will be worth about 100 Billion in several years. If MongoDB will remain dominant as it is in this field it will naturally grow, a lot. This could lead to a company worth multiple times more than it is now.

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    3. 以我理解,ZS的網絡安全服務和傳統的網絡保概念安完全不同,針對雲方面的應用。公司近期取得不少大企業的contract,經試用期後採購可以大幅增加並維持高增長

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    4. MDB最近的產品發放大會,投資者的評價似乎不俗,例如公司為其database引入search 功能

      Needham maintains a Buy rating on MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) and raises the price target from $165 to $184 after the annual user conference.

      The firm is "incrementally positive" on the long-term potential of the Atlas cloud database product.

      More action: KeyBanc reiterates an Overweight rating and boosts the PT from $165 to $188.

      The bank says it left the event "with higher conviction in the upside levers that could sustain high growth over the next three to five years."

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  3. S&P500 再創新高,証明牛市仍運行中,不過今日堆熱炒雲概念軟件股大幅跑輸

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    1. SaaS相關股份於6月初已大幅跑前,近日只是轉得稍為落後;應不用太介懷,把焦點放在公司的長期盈利增長前景上。

      組合內的持股及重點watchlist,大部分早已破了高位

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    2. 遺憾的早前放走了升勢最強的AYX,其股價於6月第一個交易天以大陰燭跌破50天線,且當時的20天線轉向下移,看來是一個走勢陷阱

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  4. 雲概念軟件股日日大插,真係好考信念及耐力

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    1. 這一週的投資表現又再令人失望,但重新建立把對公司的信心主要放在基本面,而非股價走勢之上。美國公司的核心競爭力遠較大中華區為強;除非政治經濟環境出大問題,應不用太擔心。況且這一波的回調仍是在正常的走勢範圍以內

      回顧這幾年的投資表現仍欠理想,主要原因是買入好股但被短期的市場波動震走,在於心態上怕輸及在意落後指數。目前正調節心態,明顯地我的買賣次數減低不少。花多些時間跟縱公司的新聞及財務表現,加上較嚴格的選股,自會減低被震走的機會

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  5. some positive comments on ZS from brokerage researches lately:


    Wedbush raises its Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) target from $82 to $87 and maintains an Outperform rating.

    Analyst Daniel Ives cites internal checks showing "growing momentum for the company’s product portfolio" in the next 12 to 18 months.


    Needham reaffirms its Strong Buy rating and $89 price target for Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS).

    Analyst Alex Henderson thinks ZS can continue its streak of "solid beat and raise results" thanks to strength in customer retention, new customer adds, and margin leverage.

    Henderson calls Zscaler the "single best idea in our Security coverage" with no meaningful competition, unique capabilities, and a funnel that's filling faster than ZS can close deals.

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  6. Meanwhile, the recent weakness of MDB can be partly attributed to this press release by its competitor Postgres, claiming that it has superior performance than MDB in certain aspect. In addition to that this sort of press release is positioned to be biased, database selection is a sophisticated issue which could be simply decided by certain parameters



    New Benchmarks Show Postgres Dominating MongoDB in Varied Workloads

    https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/new-benchmarks-show-postgres-dominating-mongodb-in-varied-workloads-300875314.html

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  7. MDB 大市升都要跌,走勢好弱。 整體Saas股這輪反彈也比較欠勁度

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    1. 有人話可能是因為主要股東套現的影響

      近日的領悟是持有這類高增長的小型公司,真的要有耐性去坐並忍受短期的波動,當中需要對公司的信心

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  8. Buy MELI US
    Sell PYPL US

    Paypal is a decent investment, but seek a better investment alternative

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  9. S&P 突破3000大關,雖然美國經濟面臨衰退風險增加( 10年-3個月yield Curve倒掛多時),但牛市繼續,按過去案例,股市今年仍不用擔心。

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    1. 對,買美股的確安心得多。

      但明年美國總統大選年,侵侵連任工程完成後才有較大會轉為跌市

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    2. 我仍持有一些港股,前幾日先中伏左隻新城發展1030,輸得冤枉,港股多地雷,又乏增長動力,真係不宜戀棧。

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    3. I don't have any HK shares now. Yes the valuations are not demanding and there may be some medium term rebound/rally. Nonetheless I realise it shall be better to concentrate a handful of best companies in the US from long term growth perspective

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