2019年11月8日星期五

坦承面對失敗重新上路

目前組合:

Nvidia (NVDA US) 11.6%
Alphabet (GOOGL US) 9.5%
Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) 8.1%
Tesla (TSLA US) 7.5%
Neurocrine Biosciences (NBIX US) 7.5%
Microsoft (MSFT US) 7.2%
Aoyuan Health (3662 HK) 7.2%
Conch Cement (914 HK) 7.1%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) 6.8%
Ping An (2318 HK) 6.8%
Wuxi Biologics (2269 HK) 6.4%
AIA (1299 HK) 5.9%
Aoyuan (3883 HK) 5.7%
Longfor (960 HK) 4.7%
Datadog (DDOG US) 2.6%

組合 year to date回報:(19.5)%
標普500 year to date年回報:23.1%
恆指 year to date 回報:7.1%

- 這兩年的投資表現實在很不堪入目。今年的大錯在於對美股高增長股太有信心,結果一錯滿盤皆落索。從未預計以SaaS雲端股為主的增長股可和指數表現差異那麼大,該批股份自8月以來的表現幾近股災級,完全和指數相背馳。自9月份已開始撤離該批股份,並分散至港股及美股的大價股;但即使降低比重仍顯著拖累這個多月的回報。現今唯有坦然面對失敗,檢討及重整投資理念再重新出發

- 其實這個錯誤很難原諒,每一次投資出事均是太執著於Buy and Hold、反之若有參考技術指標作買賣的時段,至少表現大多可跑羸指數。今年又做了愚事,原因是看了美股投資神人Saul的分享(https://boards.fool.com/my-portfolio-at-the-end-of-oct-2019-34328383.aspx)。投資的事要自己負責,絶不會遷怪任何人;但Saul對 純基本分析,buy and hold持有高增長公司那一套的信念、對持有公司的信心、以及其往績的確吸引我當時追隨。但的確不同人適合不同的投資風格,再加上追隨Saul的時該雲端相關股的估值接近最高位,結果做成大錯。事實上,Saul那一套完全忽視市場訊號的一套,過去數個月遭受很大損失,但人家有今年初的利潤作緩衝

- 過去5年已浪費了很多時間,現在再無失誤的空間,絶不能讓類似錯誤再出現

- 賣貨時機仍是重要一課,Recap沽出準則:(一)主動式沽出:美股藍籌高於50天線10%至15%、其他(港股及美股中小市值):高於50天線15%至25%、(二)相對走勢轉為顯著落後、(三)股價波幅突然擴大、(四)於創新高後出現2%至3%的單日轉向倒跌、(五)20天線方向顯著轉趨向下

- 不宜用支持位或跌破平均線作沽出準則。通常下試支持位時,波幅會加大,且也不時會有假跌破;在這些時候沽貨要面臨大的心理壓力及容易出錯

- 要克服沽出的心理阻礙,可採用分段沽出,免卻一下子沽出全部持貨的心理包袱

- 沽出的另一心理阻礙是賣出後股價見底並再上升。如認真看好公司,賣出後要放在watchlist 中,免得忘掉及走勢回復正常時補回。此外,上述提到的主動式沽出,能執行的話應能做到於高位適時獲利,避免於相對低位在不適合的情況下沽出

- 20天線和50天線是重要的買入filter point或最低要求。20天要轉趨向上,而50天線至少要趨向平穩。持有股票也應要在20天線及50天線向上的明確上升走勢。切忌讓表現顯著落後的股份拖累整個portfolio的回報

- 美股方面,業績前股價走勢較差,尤其顯著落後指數及20天線向下等,切忌持貨過夜。目前的市場效率高,業績前股價走勢弱頗大機會是業績不好

- 此外,美股對業績欠佳公司的懲罰其實更兇狠。去年8月份,正是覺得Twitter的營運數據不是太差,所以不同意業績後的拋售;開展了投資表現大倒退之路,上了深刻的教訓。always don't argue with the market

- 我相信今年令我冒受慘重損失的高增長股仍有前景及潛力,不要忘記他們。若sector rotation重回growth oriented時,他們或可帶來倍升回報。但至少要等20天線轉趨向上及出現明確的一浪高於一浪才買入;不要介意錯失未確認前的升浪初期

- 這兩個多於把資金重新買入美股藍籌及港股,so far 選股及買賣上是可以的,找回一點以往出色表現時期的感覺,只是被尚未全面撤離的高增長股拖了後腿。今年只得當一個大 write off,只能望在於餘下個多月收窄虧損。展望明年,在美股今年豐收之下比較基數高,明年要賺取高回報或不太容易。反之港股,在連續兩年under perform下,明年或有驚喜的空間。但錯失了很易賺錢的一年,明年更加要付出更多努力及打醒十二分精神才能收復失地

123 則留言:

  1. You兄繼續努力,依我所見,You兄是急於追回年初的落后而過度重注單一板塊。

    我自己預期這次美股2年整固期的突破是類似於2012及2016年,及后的2013及2017年都是大升市,所以只要不太走偏鋒,構建一個與大市相關度高而成員有望跑贏大市的組合,相信要追回失地不難。

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    1. 多謝鼓勵。從正面看,計及美股去年的跌幅,拉均來看美國這兩年的平均升幅還不過約7至8%,其實不算 excessive,明年應還有上升空間的

      的確集中在較大跌的公司後,投資表現順手了很多

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  2. Recap 周五的買賣

    Buy LULU (補回周四未有執行的買盤)
    Sell DDOG (遺憾地是在接近最低價沽出,的確這些流通量低的細市值股,股價波動性很高而容易做錯決定,沽出後股價便見底回升了)
    Buy GH
    (交出很好的季績及顯著提高 guidance,再回看這三個月的股價大幅波動下跌,完全是無厘頭;雖則軟庫的減持可能是其中原因。教訓是買賣美股的中小型增長股,即使增長前景再好,也要很注意風險管理及不可注碼過高。相對之下,FANG檔次的大型股,至少和業績相比較,股價走勢仍是有路可捉及在合理範圍內波動)

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    1. GH 的早期cancer診斷技術有機會是革命性產品。且公司目前的20天線己轉趨向上,符合最低買入要求

      Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH) is up 11% premarket on light volume following its Q3 results released after the close yesterday. Highlights:

      Revenue: $60.8M (+180%).

      Net loss: ($12.8M) (+48%); loss/share: ($0.14) (+93%).

      13,259 (+89%) tests reported to clinical customers, 5,280 (+111%) to biopharma customers.

      2019 guidance: Revenue: $202M - 207M from $180M - 190M.

      Guardant Health (NASDAQ:GH): Q3 GAAP EPS of -$0.14 beats by $0.23.

      Revenue of $60.8M (+180.3% Y/Y) beats by $15.4M.

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  3. Sell 3662 HK 960 HK

    對港版屠城表示痛心疾首。同時間,港股波幅顯著加大,須按之前檢討沽出部份港股持倉以控制風險

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    1. Further sell 3883 and 914 HK
      Offload majority of HK shares position today

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  4. 今日對香港人/社會及股市都是黑暗的一天,中港股潛在升幅應大於美股但不確定性及波動性也一定大於美股,我目前美股港股比例約7:3,而港股中幾乎都是中資股,以目前社會態勢,本土股還是少占手為妙

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    1. 關於時局的我在其他社交媒體有發言,基本上我是堅守良心的一邊

      難得港股明顯地破位,少有地增持港股至近半比重,但政府鎮壓升級又破壞了整個上升走勢。港股的結構性風險多,的確是集中在美股較好。今天大幅減持港股,也想是在沽出決定方面做得決斷些,從 outcome probability 看多於要確認訊號

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    2. 美股的高增長股走勢好番些少,兄台會如何判斷再買入呢?

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    3. 是,有些改善,但整體downtrend的格局仍未有扭轉,所以仍未考慮重新入場,最多就是選擇性地增持一點技術走勢較佳的個股如RNG、TTD

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    4. 港股,我已不再回頭看...亦不忍再回頭看

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    5. Every dog has its day. Don't write off HK & China equities totally

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  5. Buy CRM
    Add GH

    US stocks are still performing pretty solid

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  6. Buy back 3662 HK

    非本地類,尤其是中小型股的momentum仍是不俗

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  7. SaaS又似轉勢,TTD業績後在眾人看淡下連續兩支大陽燭,對於SaaS可以不要ALL OR NOTHING,分散並長期持有,反正於高位已打了6-7折,現在介入比較合適,持有他們的心態可以像看待平保友邦這類股,這看來仍是在自己組合中必要持有的朝陽行業。

    怎麼看?

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    1. 老土講句,都係注意風險管理。增長及公司競爭力仍不擔心,但的確有風險是假如 Google , Amazon, MSFT, 等大企業認真加入競爭並推出可比較服務,那便要擔心了(有關可能性我認為話大唔大,話細唔細,主要是各公司的business niche focus的問題)

      老土個句,不要太重注及適當尊重市場訊號

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    2. 睇番 Saul 及美股軍師的文章,再諗番要做到佢到咁長線投資並不容易也不適合每個人。首先要差不多完全不理股價。此外,在較早期買入有利潤打底,心態上可調校得好些

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    3. Probably this is the reason for TTD's surge


      The Trade Desk (TTD +1.4%) announces that CFO Paul Ross has retired.

      The company appoints Blake Grayson to succeed Ross.

      Grayson most recently worked at Amazon, serving as the VP of Finance for the International Consumer business.

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    4. 認同,曾經在今年賺了好多,我也可以做到不理股價,但9月變天後,心底慌了,滿倉卻很恐懼,也很害怕止蝕後大反彈,他們有了幾百%的利潤,心態也較我輕鬆。

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    5. 所以我應為對大部份人而言,應該適當尊重市場訊號

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  8. 是,SaaS勢頭改善中,雖然downtrend大格局仍未確定已轉勢,但也值得小注先步署些基本部位,我今晚也稍為增持了一些。

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    1. 眼見中大被圍,也沒多大心機睇市,明天的港股部位可能又要跌了,但相對學生的安危,實在微不足道。今晚也無心情做買賣

      的確uptrend尚未必 confirm。看相對強勢股如 ROKU 及 COUP 的升勢作不穩定。況且很多早前賣出的高增長股,仍未達到20天線要向上的最低要求 (other than TTD and ROKU)

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  9. 我也極憤怒,同學們加油,願他們平安!

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  10. 為什麼你們只會為某些和自己政見對立的不義而憤怒,你們看不見雙方都在做出暴力行為嗎?

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    1. 我有鮮明立埸及取態,對敵方憤怒有問題嗎?

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    2. 政治話題在此點到即止。若沒有中大學生的"暴力"抵抗,昨晚中大恐怕己出現類近天安門式屠城了

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  11. 面對如今的政局,港股已無法正常分析,唯有選擇撤離,今天沽出了一半港股部位,套回資金增持把握性更高的美股算了,近期對歐日台韓股市也很看好,也會增持該些地區的個股及ETF

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    1. 其實我港股的持股,除了AIA外,其他於昨天表現又不算太差,非港資企業暫時看來問題仍不大。不過的確點都要打番些折扣

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  12. Tesla 原來己升至高於50天線的30%,要準備啟動主動沽出模式了

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  13. Reduce NVDA US


    業績前股價仍偏弱,沒信心太重倉

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    1. 另下,周四最後還買回 MDB US
      逐步加重增長股的比重

      美股的投資部位近周表現不錯,但只是仍較港股拖了後腳,港股的比重仍有再調低空間

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  14. Nvidia 昨晚公佈的季績及guidance,只能說不過不失,沒有太大的驚喜。業績前股價乏力再上,某程度上市場已反映了今次季績的表現

    Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA) +1.2% reports Q3 beats with downside Q4 guidance that sees revenue of $2.89-3.01B (consensus: $3.08B) with a 64.5% gross margin.

    NVDA expects strong sequential growth in Data Center, offset by seasonal declines in GeForce notebook GPUs and SoC modules for gaming.

    Q3 revenue by market platform: Gaming, $1.66B (+26% Q/Q; -6% Y/Y); Professional Visualization, $324M (+11% Q/Q; +6% Y/Y); Data Center, $726M (+11% Q/Q; -8% Y/Y); Auto, $162M (-22% Q/Q; -6% Y/Y); OEM and Other, $143M (+29% Q/Q; -3% Y/Y).

    Nvidia (NASDAQ:NVDA): Q3 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.78 beats by $0.20; GAAP EPS of $1.45 beats by $0.20.

    Revenue of $3.01B (-5.3% Y/Y) beats by $90M

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  15. DDOG早前公佈理想的季績,股價爆升15%以上。但自己卻在近30元前被震走,是一個很不好的經驗

    投資無得馬後炮,DDOG的財報數據及增長動力很優秀是事實;但同時由於估值高及是半新股,股價波幅也很高。現在回看一周前沽出是很錯,但之前的單單兩個交易天,公司股價已累跌了10%有多。而即使在31美元的股價,其price to sales ratio也在20多倍的偏高水平

    教訓是選擇買入對象,也要注意股價波幅。DDOG在半新股中無疑是頗為吸引的公司。但股價波幅太大且尚無形成明確走勢,很容易做錯決定;且track record未夠也其實不適合長期持有;在比較risk reward profile,除非很懂捕捉短期走勢,買入MSFT, GOOGL,AAPL等大路股票應該還化算

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  16. 周一的買賣更新
    買回 NVDA
    買入 VEEV
    增持 OKTA
    沽出 CRM

    指數雖無大漲,但個股動力其實不俗

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  17. 是,SaaS等高增長股明顯轉強,很多已出現higher high higher low的轉勢訊號

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    1. 剛買回了 AYX US

      不過經上次教訓,今次在注破及個股比重上會更分散,始終這些成長初期公司面對的uncertainty會較多

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    2. 不過目前有些overdraft,睇怕要在港股上減持一些以平衡風險

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  18. Sell 1299 HK

    Domestic HK stocks, though AIA has large East Asia exposure, are still very weak and should be avoided

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  19. 想不到阿里巴巴影響下, 拼多多及美團都大跌那麼多。反而海螺914似整固再上。

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    1. 美團今天的大跌應和拼多多剛公佈的季績虧損擴大而備受拖累。但兩者的business model不同,拼多多是做團購而美團是做餐飲外賣。且美團早前的第二季financial result已達致 breakeven

      第四季向來是水泥價格旺季,且整體來說水泥股估值不高;但港股始終波幅大,且政治不明朗因素多。很安心坐得定,早前買入914也輕微虧錢沽出了

      美股的高增長股終於重上上升走勢

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    2. 平安好醫生被股東減持也是拖累美團的原因之一

      內地電商巨無霸阿里巴巴(09988.HK)於本港招股凍資近千億元,於本港上市內地新經濟股今天普遍跑輸大市,尤其是遭主要股東幫騏鍵以每股55元沽售2,000萬股的平安好醫生(01833.HK) 午後跌幅進一步擴大,最多急挫12%低見51.8元,現造53.15,續挫9.5%,成交受2,000萬股非自動對盤上板帶動急增至3,408萬股,涉資18.63億元。

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    3. 想不到美團業績那麼好,今天早沽了。

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    4. 明天應該會升的,但今季的positive surprise又無上季那麼大,升幅又不會如上次那麼高

      美團點評-W(03690.HK) -5.400 (-5.550%) 沽空 $3.18億; 比率 10.022% 公布截至今年9月底止第三季業績,營業額274.94億元人民幣(下同),按年升44.1%,按季升21.1%。虧轉盈賺13.35億元,上年同期蝕832.95億元,較今年第二季純利8.77億元按季升52.2%。

      今年第三季,經營溢利為14.47億元,上年同期為錄得經營虧損34.5億元。以非國際財務報告準則計量,第三季經調整EBITDA為22.85億元,上年同期為虧損11.72億元;經調整溢利淨額為19.42億元,上年同期為錄虧損淨額24.72億元。

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  20. 回覆
    1. 物業管理板塊的動力有所減弱,始終這個sector的公司選擇太多,不見個別公司有很強的競爭優勢。加上組合已有些overdraft,在momentum考慮下先予沽出

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  21. Add 3690 HK

    預計港股的走勢會繼續集中在少數能維持盈利高增長,且具護城河的強者之上

    投資表現終於出現了久違了的winning streak。今年年初沒有追上股市反彈,及第二季於高估值押注SaaS股,受創實在很深。到年底時才重回正軌實在為時已晚。美股一再創歷史高位,在大牛市行情下跑贏指數不困難;目前要做到勝莫驕,適時獲利撤退才是長期致勝關鍵

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  22. Good results and guidance, likely to ADD

    Veeva Systems (NYSE:VEEV) is up 2.2% postmarket after posting Q3 earnings where it beat on top and bottom lines and raised its profit guidance for the full year.

    Revenues rose by 25%, with core subscription services sales up 27%.

    Operating income rose similarly, by 32% (non-GAAP) to $111.6M.

    And net income rose 35% to $95.4M.

    “Our outperformance in both Veeva Commercial Cloud and Veeva Vault reflects the tremendous opportunity we have in life sciences,” says CFO Tim Cabral.

    Revenue breakout: Subscription services, $226.8M (up 27%); Professional services and other, $54.2M (up 16.4%).

    For Q4, it's forecasting revenues of $296M-$299M (above consensus for $278.6M), operating income of $100M-$101M and EPS of $0.51-$0.52 (vs. consensus for $0.53).

    For the full year, it now sees revenues of $1.088B-$1.091B (above consensus for $1.07B); operating income of $409M-$410M; and EPS of $2.16-$2.17 (above consensus for $2.12).

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  23. 今晚遭遇到 setback

    於 VEEV高開約4%時增持,誰知開市不到半小時轉為倒跌,業績對版得走勢很不對勁,全數沽出

    此外,沽出TTD (above 50 day MA 25%)及GH (lacking momentum);近日高增長股漲得太多,可以減持一些。 再增持一些 Apple (AAPL US)

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  24. Sell 2318 HK

    之前對其走勢偏弱已有警覺,但股價至少未失守90元這個中期支持位,沽且一守。今早終失守這個水平,只得沽出離場。

    港股仍是扶不起的阿斗。即使投入比重不高,但除了美團及藥明生物有貢獻外,仍拖累今個月做得不錯的美股投資回報

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  25. Probably the reason for HSI's tumble today

    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2019-11-28/china-s-financial-warning-signs-are-flashing-almost-everywhere?srnd=premium-asia

    China’s Financial Warning Signs Are Flashing Almost Everywhere

    From rural bank runs to surging consumer indebtedness and an unprecedented bond restructuring, mounting signs of financial stress in China are putting the nation’s policy makers to the test.

    Xi Jinping’s government faces an increasingly difficult balancing act as it tries to support the world’s second-largest economy without encouraging moral hazard and reckless spending. While authorities have so far been reluctant to rescue troubled borrowers and ramp up stimulus, the costs of maintaining that stance are rising as defaults increase and China’s slowdown deepens.

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  26. 港股不值得花時間去留意及糾纏,我收市才看1次港股aastocks恆指收市位,夜晚才會認真睇睇美股watchlist。

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    1. 的確如是。仍持有的3690及2269是市場上稀缺的公司,仍可寄望,但整體不宜於港股上有高的比重

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  27. Buy AMAT and SNPS US

    Semi conductor and related are still in pretty good uptrend

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  28. Sell LUU US (take profit, 10% above 50 day MA)

    Sell GOOGL US (regulatory concern seems to be weighing on its near term performance)

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  29. This Morgan Stanley downgrade seems to have triggered sell off in SaaS and related stocks

    Morgan Stanley downgrades Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) from Equal-Weight to Underweight and raises the target by $10 to $110.

    Analyst Benjamin Swinburne thinks revenue and gross profit growth could "slow meaningfully" next year.

    Shares are up over 400% in 2019, which skews the risk profile "to the downside."

    The analyst says valuation has "surged past digital media players and even past high-growth" SaaS companies despite ROKU's lower gross margins.

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  30. Very good quarterly results of COUP, particular in quarter on quarter improvement in profitability and free cash flow. Will keep an eye on it

    Coupa Software (NASDAQ:COUP) -1.2% reports Q3 beats with subscription revenue up 49% Y/Y to $90.2M.

    Q3 gross margin was 72.1% compared to the 71.3% consensus. Operating margin was 11.3% versus the 8.5% in last year's quarter.

    Operating cash flow came in at $25.8M. FCF totaled $22.1M, up from $2.57M last year.

    The Q4 outlook sees upside revenue of $101.5-102.5M with $91.5-92.5M in subscription revenue and upside EPS of $0.03-0.05.

    The FY guidance raises the revenue view from $369-372M to $379.8-380.8M (consensus: $372.2M) with EPS of $0.34-0.37 (was: $0.11-16; consensus: $0.17).

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  31. Risk off mode is on

    Trump Sees No Deadline for China Trade Deal, Sending Stocks Down

    President Donald Trump signaled he would be willing to wait for another year before striking a trade agreement with China, casting doubt on the likelihood of a phase-one accord within weeks between Washington and Beijing.

    “I have no deadline,” he told reporters Tuesday on London when asked if he wanted an agreement by year end.

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  32. ZS 1Q results were pretty much okay, but seems that investors are looking for more in the growth guidance

    Zscaler (NASDAQ:ZS) -5.6% reports an upside Q1 report but has a more muted view for Q2 with inline revenue of $97-100M and downside EPS of about $0.03 compared to the $0.04 consensus.

    For FY20, ZS sees inline EPS of $0.13-0.15 and upside revenue of $405-413M.

    Q1 calculated billings were up 48% Y/Y to $94M.

    Deferred revenue was up 49% to $246M.

    Cash from operations totaled $21.4M (last year: $11M) with FCF of $9.4M.

    Cash and equivalents totaled $378M at the end of the quarter.

    Rosenblatt (Neutral, $50 price target) says Zscaler's (NASDAQ:ZS) earnings report "solidly" beat expectations, but thinks the "bar has been set low."

    The results "show some stability" after the "significant deceleration." Rosenblatt sees ZS as "on the right track" for improved sales execution.

    Morgan Stanley (Underweight, $40) says the quarter's billings growth highlights that Zscaler is "a leader in next gen security architectures." The firm thinks the billings deceleration shows "there is still some work to do in scaling sales while competition looms."

    Morgan thinks the combo of slower growth and higher investments could prove a difficult combo at the current valuation.

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  33. 回覆
    1. 的確如是,雖則有些美股的波動大,有需要作多些主動買賣。例如早前的 TradeDesk在接近最高水平沽出,目前正好在回調至低位時買回

      不過的確在這方面仍需多學習及調校心態

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    2. 還有,美股對業績及其 guidance 的反應很敏感。買入高 beta 股是要在業績期前後作多些主動調配

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  34. 昨天的 portfolio的表現不差。但今天 salesforce (CRM)公佈業績的guidance欠缺理想,拖累了雲端股的表現。但此類股份的波動性大,不會因一、兩天的表現異動而過早判斷其走勢轉差。目前平均線的黃金交叉利好形態仍無改變

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  35. SELL SNPS - in line result, but weak guidance
    BUY AMSL - the better momentum in semi conductor equipment stocks

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    1. 對,多謝提點。雖則買賣頻繁一些,但半導體相關 sector 應尤其注重 follow momentum

      ASML 較 Applied 強,而早前也把一些 Nvidia轉到AMD上。AMD在產品開發上出現突破,令其股價跑贏同業

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  36. OKTA業績

    Okta (NASDAQ:OKTA) -3.4% reports Q3 beats with upside Q4 guidance that sees $155-156M in revenue with a loss per share of $0.05 to $0.04.

    The FY outlook sees $574-575M with a loss per share of $0.35-0.34.

    Q3 subscription revenue was up 48% on the year to $144.5M.

    Billings grew 42% Y/Y in Q3 to $175.6M.

    Remaining performance obligations totaled $1.03B. Current RPO was $515.9M.

    Gross margin was 77.8% versus the 76.7% consensus. Operating margin was -5.3% compared to -6.1% in last year's quarter.

    R&D expenses soared 52% Y/Y to $41.8M.

    ZOOM, ESTC已大跌, 感覺近兩季無論Saas業績多好都會跌。反而人氣較低的DOCUSIGN低調破頂。

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    1. 我昨晚睡前 set 了stop limit order,昨晚跌幅擴大觸發了此stop limit沽了一半持貨。始終這類股票的波幅大,業績前走勢稍為不對版的話應先行減持

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    2. ESTC的業績明顯地不理想,離breakeven還未有耐。明顯地市場目前看saas股,看重能否有profit(or at least quickly getting close to breakeven)多於單單有營業額增長

      OKTA的業績和預期相符,guidance也有上調,但始終虧損未有收窄

      MDB將於下周公佈業績,按這個套路,應予考慮減持

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    3. 原本11月投資表現已有較理想改善,但12月頭一周又遭受重創,原因是受SaaS股的拖累

      Saul的回報很好,我也相信他的愛股中肯定有未來十倍股。但照他這麼做要幾乎完全不理股價及忍受高股價波幅,其實並不容易。且跟他這麼做一旦看錯,損失可以很大,例如重前很多人看好的Zscaler

      並不會放棄中小市值高增長股,但會分散注碼,及保持一定大市值股份比重,且投入這些股份需嚴定及執行沽出機制

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  37. Buy back AAPL US

    始終策略上要擺一些 blue chips作資產配置,太集中於saas 之上,始終波動太大及很難管理風險

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  38. Sell AMAT US Buy TSM US - Chase stronger momentum in semiconductor stocks

    Buy SQ
    Sell COUP - take small profit as SaaS stocks are still weak

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    1. Reduce MDB

      雲端股仍顯著弱勢落後於指數,依近日的經驗,要業績很好才可於業績後有得上。在衡量風險過後,只以輕倉面對下周的季績公佈

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    2. Saas心理壓力大, 怕MDB成為下一隻ESTC,ZM,支持減持。

      但為何不買回TELSA? 為何重回SQ?因為走勢好轉?

      thanks for sharing

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    3. 我不懷疑 nosql database的增長前景,但明顯地市場目前是看重 proitability多於 revenue 增長

      去年及今年均犯了很嚴重的錯誤,要把 Saul的那一套應用不是每個人都適合,買太多Saul的愛股其實心理壓力很大。目前仍是檢討及重整期,要致力回復以往的手風。

      多謝提點 TSLA,可以留意,只是watchlist 太多有時忽略了此股,但仍要想清此股的基本因素,中美新冷戰惡化,最懷情況會影響它在上海的新廠房

      買回 Square的其中原因當然是走勢,此外也很重要的它錄得盈利,而看seeking alpha的文章,投資者對公司於其他fintech的應用是頗為看好的

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  39. Buy 3883 HK & 1233 HK

    Chase momentum of China properties stocks

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  40. Sell MDB - risky to hold before result announcement
    Sell ROKU - expensive valuation, upward momentum weakening
    Buy FB - growth blue chips at more reasonable valuations

    的確要避免衝動的買賣,不要受太短期的上落影響。買入 Facebook也是因相對合理的估值,要在估值及爆炸性增長之間取得平衡

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    1. MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) is up 7.6% postmarket after posting a better-than-expected loss in Q3 earnings, with growth paced by strong improvement in subscriptions.

      Overall revenues rose 52.5% to $109.4M, and subscription growth was 56%, while services revenue grew 8%.

      Gross profit of $79.3M marked a margin of 72%.

      Net loss widened slightly on a non-GAAP basis, to $14.6M from a year-ago loss of $6.9M.

      For Q4, it's guiding to revenue of $109M-$111M (above consensus for $105.6M) and EPS of -$0.29 to -$0.27 (better than consensus for -$0.30).

      Cash use from operations was $11.5M, and free cash flow was negative $13.1M; liquidity was $426.4M at quarter's end.

      For the full year, it's forecasting revenues of $407.2M-$409.2M (above expectations for $394.2M) and EPS of -$1.04 to -$1.02 (better than consensus for -$1.07).

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    2. guidance 有調高,但展望第4季仍會是明顯虧損,且根據 guidance,第四季的增長會放慢至約40%的水平

      我對公司從事事所謂 document based 新一代 database很有期望,但或話等此股接近 breakeven時再考慮買入會好些。始終長線前景應該很好,但公司仍處燒錢期,股價波動太大實在很難掌握風險。單單由12月初由150元跌至近130元,當中的波幅己很難管理及handle 。但AYX, TTD& COUP等仍可放入 watchlist,至少在non-gaap 標準上己有profit

      要跟足Saul 的那一套實在不是適合每一個人。他投的高增長股故事很sexy及他的往績很好,但要做到他那套要幾乎不理股價及忍受股價很大波動,當中也要對公司的前景很有信心。我自問做不到也不應完全跟(當中他買的ZS及TWLO 也失敗過,跌了很多)

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  41. Sell OKTA & SQ

    目前市場的確不再偏好高增長但㲃燒錢階段的股份,要投資表現浴火重生的話,不可和市場作對。在整理思緒及面對今年的災難性失敗後,會再出新文

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    1. Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) plans to increase the prices of Model 3 vehicles it imports into China, sources tell Reuters.

      The price hikes will cover imported Model 3 vehicles with longer range (currently at 439,900 yuan) and those with the performance package (509,900 yuan).

      Base Model 3 sedans made in China are currently priced at 355,000 yuan.

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  42. 今天港股部位方面沽出了2269 和 1233

    藥明生物於91元見明顯阻力,雖則股價仍處明確升勢,但對該股仍有些顧慮而沽出。主要是藥價政策大幅壓價,公司雖從事CRO不受直接影響但估值上難免會受拖累。且公司的估值高及有大股東位減持的風險

    沽出時代地產是因其大幅落後同行。今年的投資表現災難性,連買入內房股也運滯地選中最落後的那一隻

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  43. 謝謝分析,今晚SaaS又洗倉了,看來PLAN,AYX都需要斬,無謂再留戀了。

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    1. 我也剛沽出了,今年真的是很慘痛一課

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    2. 約開市半小時沽出,時機也不算最差

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    3. 至敝11月中的那一波升得似模似樣,且20天線破50天線,誰不知那是一個trap來的,雖則我這一波買得不算很多

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    4. 有D令你虧錢的股票,沽出就算,未必適合再買入第2,第3次。
      買股票都係遠離人多的地方會較好。

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    5. 今年美股風調雨順,但某些板塊都可以無故自崩,都真係幾得人驚。亦再次證實巴老建議被動型指數ETF跑贏很多主動型基金的說法正確。

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    6. 我真的不知SaaS股票在美國是否被熱捧,但在Saul 討論區裹,的確很多人買入相關股份。

      要到您的博客那處找多些好股,準備明年浴火重生了

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    7. 我以前主動管理可以很輕易及持續性跑贏指數,即使16/17停文的兩年,也有段頗長時間有不失禮的表現

      我仍相信我有這個能力及決心,稍後會再貼文重整思緒

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    8. 我60%倉位ETF,40%個股,平衡炒股樂趣。

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  44. Sell AYX, PLAN, TTD
    Add NVDA, TSLA, TSM

    對這些高增長軟件股投降了,表面上前景很亮麗及升幅可以很高;但之前沒考慮其股價波幅以及即使有沽出機制,一旦轉勢下跌也很難有效沽出。即使11月底己回復一浪高於一浪,及20天線升破50天線,原來仍未擺脫下跌走勢。可能要等待他們錄得 breakeven,才會再買入,暫時真的不要再掂了

    今番再買入的整體注碼己不算太高,且有分至半導體的sector,但這一波的saas 再下跌仍然很傷。今年的投資表現實在很災難性,現在唯有展望明年


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  45. 美股討論區有人講昨晚AYX大跌是因市傳有機構準備出沽空報告,但該機構隨後否認,但這個說法不講有說服力。AYX己經有non GAAP 盈利,且KPI增長很可觀;但股價也可以波動成這樣,要管理這些股票的風險其實很難,今年犯下很大的錯誤

    https://boards.fool.com/ayx-34363009.aspx?sort=whole#34363009

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    1. 話時話,美國版友so far 接受這個觀點。time will tell是否美國人太天真。以我們見識過港股的老千手段(我絕不是指 AYX是老千股),對這個解釋很懷疑。我估這機構是有沽空,但不想太早把它的策略暴光

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    2. ,所以才此地無銀三百兩地否認

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  46. LULU績後調整, 但有支持, 可以留意LULU。況且LULU的走勢都是慢牛向上, 也是不錯的。它的YOGA PANT品牌已拋離對手NIKE等, YOGA也是女性服務, 近十年興起的潮流運動, 也是中產玩味, 就算經濟差,
    中國新堀起的中產絕對能夠負擔得到。

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    1. so far agree, thanks for input and will consider

      Lululemon (NASDAQ:LULU) reports comparable sales jumped 16% Y/Y in Q3 to more than double the consensus estimate for a 5.2% gain. Comparable sales were up 17% on a constant dollar basis.

      Comparable store sales were up 10% and direct-to-consumer revenue was up 29%.

      Gross margin came in at 55.1% of sales vs. 54.6% consensus and 54.4% a year ago. Operating margin improved to 19.2% of sales.

      Looking ahead, Lululemon anticipates full-year revenue of $3.895B to $3.910B vs. $3.80B to $3.84B prior and $3.89B consensus. EPS of $4.75 to $4.80 is anticipated vs. $4.75 consensus. For Q4, Lululemon sees revenue of $1.315B to $1.330B and EPS of $2.10 to $2.13 vs. $2.13 consensus.

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    2. 昨晚睡前見LULU的跌幅沒有收窄,所以無買到。無朝醒來見到LULU的跌幅收窄,暫時看來是錯失了一個機會。業績後的回調應是一個買入機會,但之前的累積升幅高,不覺只花一天能完成調整

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  47. Apple 今天股價偏弱的原因

    Credit Suisse says Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) iPhone sales in China dropped 35.4% Y/Y in November compared to the 0.2% increase in the broader regional smartphone market.

    The drop follows the 10.3% Y/Y decline in October.

    Total shipments in China are now down 7.4% since the launch of the iPhone 11 line.

    The firm says early indications show a better than expected performance for the iPhone 11 models but calls the Chinese softness an incremental concern.

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