2011年7月19日星期二

洗倉潮後仍企得較硬淨的股份及操作策略回顧

每一次洗倉均是一面照妖鏡,在今周的血洗二、三線股洗倉潮過後;仍能企得較硬淨,並守穩升軌和仍接近歷史高位的股票名單如下(排名不分先後、不計藍籌公用股等傳統避難所,歡迎再加補充):

江西銅業(358)
國美(493)
恆大地產(3333)
中國海外宏洋集團(81)
YGM (375)
莎莎(178)
六福(590)
IT(999)
合生元(1112)
中升(881)
正通汽車(1728)
大昌行(1828)
理文(746)
亞洲水泥(743)
中國財險(2328)
東方錶行(398)
英皇鐘錶(887)
康師傅(322)
新濠國際(200)
銀行娛樂(27)
蒙牛(2319)
申洲國際(2313)
百麗(1880)
達芙妮(210)
中國電信(728)
領匯(823)
聯亞(458)
利福(1212)

經歷洗倉潮仍能逆市企穩的股份,更具關注價值。至於blog友關注的個別股份如東岳(189)、一線水泥股、及大成生化(809)等等,雖未完全乎合上述screening準則,但部份是因之前升得太急,故調整須為深一些。這些股份的TA仍是相對強勢,仍可關注。

今天組合下跌1.7%,相對來說表現並非太差。回顧我這半年的操作,每次洗倉潮過後,我把表現欠佳的股份沽出;然後加碼在經過洗倉潮後,表現相對強勢的股份。不知不覺間為組合進行汰弱留強。雖然今周持有的東岳(189)及山水水泥(691)不幸被洗倉潮衝擊,但同時有幸持有YGM(375)、正通(1728)及國美(493)等這些逆市牛股,又不用止蝕與否煩惱。在投資組合操作上又有以下體會:

- 買入強勢股的效用已說過很多次,友blogCup20也證實強者逾強的道理。

- 但要分散投資,強如東岳(189)出了這樣好的盈喜,也會失驚無神被洗倉。在目前資金隨時被抽走的市況,即使看好一間公司,也不宜太重倉。我從不擔心東岳的盈利動力有問題,但突然間暴跌,不得不減持一些

- 近一周跌市,除了691及189被洗倉外,其餘持股的跌幅倒不算特別差。但減持691及189又再犯了不夠決斷的老毛病,原因是對它們的估值及盈利增長有相當信心。但之前檢討已指出,如TA突然顯著轉差(如跌破上升軌、支持位等等),至少應減持部份,尤其是它們是重倉持有。但另一方面,這兩隻股票的流通性很差;一旦失去動力,要找一個不是太差的沽出位又會淪為逾等逾跌

- 在這樣的市況應著重選股多於現金比率多少。即使目前不幸是熊市,也似02/03年的陰跌多於08年式的急速下跌,大盤仍是以一個上落市的方式反覆尋底。在不同板塊被洗倉後怱忙止蝕,之後大盤指數找到技術性支持後反彈,又要怱忙買貨;這些情景相信很多blog友今年也經歷過多次,其實這樣做很費時失時。反之,要找出上述仍逆市接近高位運行的公司絶對不難。如能克服畏高症買入它們,參看以往走勢被震走的機會其實是細很多。在不少情況,以選股控制風險的效率是會比用現金為佳。

- 這個策略是歐債危機失控,令金融海嘯重現,那股票市場會全線崩盤。但這規模的經濟危機很難在數年內出現兩次。

今天沽出安徽海螺水泥(914)、山水水泥(691)、大成生化(809)及勝獅貨櫃(716);收市前又補回沽出的山水水泥。明天有意略作增持,但仍會保持一定現金水平。目前持股如下:


YGM(375)15.8%
Shanshui Cement(691)13.7%
Gome(493)11.3%
Luk Fook(590)8.3%
Dongyue(189)7.3%
Biostime(1112)7.1%
ZhengTong(1728)5.8%
Cash30.8%

44 則留言:

  1. After this two day's ins and outs my holding are 2319>375>1828>738>2899>493>3323>189>691>458>709, with 28% cash.
    I think my broker BOCHK will laugh again this months cause trading fee is jumping.

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  2. 你做哂功課, 我可以照跟了. 呵呵.

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  3. 你買埋2388, 你也可以一樣笑呵呵!

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  4. tontongood: good that majority of the stocks fulfill the criteria of trading close to historical high. We should sharpen our stock pick ability further to minimize trading cost.

    CUP Sir: 多謝捧場。當中有些也是參照你的cup 20。看這名單,你的cup20或許要加一些新成員了。少少意見,除非有明確訊號表示大市全面轉差,其實閣下今天大規模清倉也要付上一定的風險

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  5. 唔好意思, 我係話如果tontongood買埋2388, 也可以一樣笑呵呵!

    至於YOU SIR 的名單, 我一隻都冇, 不過呢啲都係好股(英皇除外), 你知我都係個句老土嘢, "我就唔會買PE高, 股價係52週新高的股票". 將來當呢啲公司業務倒退, 股價創新低時, 就會係我買入嘅時候.(希望YOU SIR 唔會刪除我留言啦, 如果我唔鍾意睇你個BLOG, 就連留言都懶得打了).

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  6. Manfred,

    睇你揀股既方式,似係因噎廢食

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  7. Manfred:無任歡迎留言。惟實踐是檢驗真理的唯一標準,若你的方法持續work,便須檢討是否轉approach

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  8. Just a few day's happiness with 2899 then have to jump and run early in the morning.

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  9. don't know what happened on 2899 and it is reasonable to jump ship

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  10. Hk stock market's exceptionally weak performance really worries me.
    See what will happen this afternoon.

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  11. yes, have to be decisive and offload all 189

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  12. 《經濟通通訊社20日專訊》紫金礦業(02899)今日股價挫4﹒19%,報4﹒35
    元,成交量為3﹒5億股,涉及約15﹒08億元。
      市場消息指,紫金礦業遭一名機構投資者減持舊股,涉及約3﹒38億股。今日紫金亦錄得
    多手大手配股共3﹒39億股上板,每股造4﹒31元,涉資14﹒59億元。


    難怪可以在前幾天逆市上升. 我當時就在奇怪, 若是炒金價升, 最正路的1818為何沒有炒上, 3330也是死氣沉沉.

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  13. Seems everybody is busy cashing in, not a good sight.

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  14. Manfred Sir,
    買入低估值但業績好轉的公司,我可以理解。但買入業績開始倒退的公司,我就不能理解了。為何要買入轉差的公司?

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  15. Manfred Sir,
    如買入低 PE 而業績轉好的公司我能理解,但為何買入業績倒退的公司?如果經營開始轉壞,有可能之後盈利每況越下,那麼低 PE 根本不能作準。

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  16. offload all 189 after purchase during the day?

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  17. yes, the stock is performing far below expectation and the broad market has weakened significantly. So I have to act decisively.

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  18. is 691 also similar to 189, performing below expectation? On what ground should we re-enter the market? and would "good earnings stock" like 189/914 be buyback targets?

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  19. Huhuhahe:691暫時的動力還不是太好,但至少比189幾乎倒跌好些。何時重新入市實在一言難盡,要考慮多方面的因素,例如走勢,消息進展及市場對消息反應等等。我目前偏好仍企在高位的股份

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  20. may be a potentially good news

    EU May Use Bailout Fund for Emergency Credit

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-20/eu-said-to-weigh-bailout-fund-use-for-emergency-credit-to-impede-contagion.html

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  21. 今天不出博文,簡單回顧:加碼東岳(189)後再沽出,算是失敗。在走勢上189尚未完全符合我的準則(雖則又不是太差),今朝加碼是有點情義結的不守紀律行動;今天189差不多倒跌,短線內應該不用理會此股。其餘兩項買入1728及358尚是合理舉動。

    今天組合升0.4%,現持現金約25%。選股上的表現還算滿意,但這近一周很多短線操作都未能達到預期效果。在此市況下除非股價走勢很不尋常,還是應學習多一事不如少一事

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  22. 達人兄, YOU SIR,
    其實我唔係買入業績開始倒退的公司, 而係已經倒退了一段時間仲唔好轉的公司. 如果係高增長的公司, 股價一定唔平, 就好似YOU SIR 以上所講的公司,要買平嘢, 唯一時候只有得佢地利潤倒退嘅時候. 我都好想買騰訊, 恆安等高增長公司, 但以佢地依家嘅PE, 唔下跌30-50%都唔會買. 至於幾時會升番, 可能係一年後, 也可以是3-5年也說不定, 所以我都只係做緊測試 (雖然係用真金白銀), 可能2,3年後可以話你知WORK唔WORK.

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  23. Manfred:係股票市場,大部份情況下平野無好、好野無平。現今金融市場的效率很高,當一隻股票長期便宜時,很有可能是公司出了一些問題,中國動向、思捷等便是顯而易見例子

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  24. 你也說得對,所以我可做的都只是放著不動吧了。

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  25. 如果股價表現長期落後大市的話為何不乾脆放出它?

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  26. Manfred Sir,
    我諗這個方法未必 Work,我唔反對買入落後股,但一定要自問找得出落後的原因,如果自己認為這間公司本身係好公司,只不過係某些市場因素令佢落後,咁我認為值得買入,當然自己或會看錯,但也值得一搏。

    相反如你所說,連你自己都不知楚佢點解會咁平,又不知佢幾時會回升,那麼買入後坐貨只不過係等運到,聽天由命而已。

    買入一間業績已倒退了一段時間的公司,等於買入一層非常殘舊的樓房,如果靚樓就貴啦,係樓殘先咁平,咁樣買入自住無問題姐,如果你想以更高價賣出,這個方法就唔多 Work,因為已經很殘的樓,很難回復返做靚樓。除非有人花重本大手翻身佢,等於一間不良公司,你要等管理層大換血或有某些重大原素轉變,才有機會變好。

    那何不等佢真的變好了才買?

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  27. Cup Sir 同 You Sir 都唔吼 MGM 2282?

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  28. take profit on all 691. The cement sector has weakened significantly with 3323,914 and 1313 all turning from day rise into day loss, which is a strong warning signal

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  29. 達人兄:2282見圖也是好的,但無時間詳細研究,所以暫時選了最大路的一隻先,多謝你的提點anyway

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  30. For 2282, I bought a tiny portion to wait for gambling stock's mid-term result.
    do not dare to invest more cause the sector is too hot.
    You sir, 691 is relatively strong this morning, I choose to wait at lease till market close.
    Jump off 3323 yesterday.

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  31. frustrated that I am trapped by 3333 today. Other than a bit bad luck, this also suggests room of improvement for my TA mindset.

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  32. tontongood: I only buy a small slice of 27, which accounts for around 7% of my portfolio. The momentum of 691 is better than expected. But significantly weakening momentum of its peers makes me cautious and I choose to jump ship. During this bearish sentiment, everyone is getting nervious to protect profit. Obviously you made a good decision in dumping 3323.

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  33. 達人兄既然知道狗股理論, 咁我已經不用多說了, 如果一年後(2012年6月30日)你仲記得嘅話, 我會話你知結果如何.

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