2011年10月11日星期二

操作失誤檢討及國內黃金周銷情

今天恆指高開700多點,但受國內股市弱勢拖累,升幅大為收窄,一度對做淡立場添回信心;然而,下午歐洲開市,帶動恆指表現轉強,終無奈把恆指熊證止蝕。惟以目前歐洲股市轉弱的表現看,有機會又做明燈。雖則港股的反彈力度不繼,18400有機會是反彈浪的高位;但由於買入點不好,可再承受的虧損空間不多。

總結今次失誤在於過份著眼於片面訊號,忽略了從大圍觀察:
- 中港股市的訊號無疑是相對大弱勢,但外圍形勢其實不算差:歐洲加強救市力度、美國的就業數據略有改善。在此情況下做淡,勝算不充份
- 用周線圖觀察,有頗有機會是中短線見底,借用友blog Cup Sir 的圖:http://1.bp.blogspot.com/-mJzqGU_mZM4/To7pqwexc9I/AAAAAAAAAno/EOrULPlgX4I/s1600/HSI+weekly+chart+%25287-Oct-2011%2529.jpg

雖則今次注碼很少,但在虧損再擴大下,須冷靜離場觀察;否則跑贏大盤的幅度只會再收窄。

剛過去的黃金周,除了房地產、中低檔汽車、及電視外;國內的消費市道仍相當良好;尚未受外圍經濟轉差影響。這解釋了消費零售股近日的強勢;但若國內經濟的隱藏問題未能解決的話,最終消費市道仍會受影響。以下是摩根大通有關國內黃金周銷情的節錄:

- China’s National Day holidays, namely the “Golden Week” ran from 1 Oct to 7
Oct 2011. Preliminary data indicates that Golden Week sales for this year were
robust across the board, despite the strong global macro headwinds. According
to the Ministry of Commerce, key retailers nationwide registered retail sales
growth of 17.5%oya for the week. In this report, we summarize the sales details
for major sectors based on the channel checks and observations from our sector
analysts.

- Auto: Mixed picture for China’s auto sales during Golden Week: We found that
the sales picture for car sales is rather mixed, with the luxury cars still
maintaining resilient sales trend yet the medium and low-end cars witnessing
rather weak sales. Two small car dealers told us that their sales volume during
Golden Week went down by 15% and 25% YoY, respectively. By contrast,
luxury car sales continued to do well during Golden Week, with a waiting
period of three to six months for such popular models as BMW 5 series and
BMW X series. One Landrover dealer in Shanghai told us that customers must
pay a 50% deposit and wait for one year for the popular Landrover models.
Alternatively, customers can pay an “urgent fee”, equivalent to 5% of its retail
price to get the vehicles. We maintain the view that the luxury car segment
remains the only bright spot in China autos.

- Consumer: We see no signs of a notable slowdown across the retail sector, and
Golden Week sales growth sustained 1H and Q3’s strong momentum. Luxury
consumption remains robust and is still outrunning overall retail sales growth.
In Hong Kong, mainland Chinese tourists remain the growth powerhouse
whereas local spending growth moderated.

- Macau gaming: Macau gaming saw a strong start in China Golden Week.
Based on revenue achieved in the first 9 days of October (MOP11.7bn), we
expect this month’s gaming revenue to be on track to deliver another 45% y-y
growth (if we assume the rest of the month to deliver the same daily run rate of
September). We continue to favor operators with a stronger mass-market
franchise which is less impacted by overall credit/liquidity conditions. Our top
pick remains Sands China (1928.HK).

- Property: Primary daily average sales volume in the 8 key cities was 1,134
units, down 61%oya. Market sentiment has worsened this year, mainly due to
tight liquidity, increased supply and macro uncertainty. Preliminary sales
performance for larger developers including COLI, Evergrande, and Country
Garden was very good, which indicates that the large developers have taken up
more market share to sustain their growth in a down market.

- Technology: Preliminary data suggests healthy sales figures for handsets and
PCs. TV sales were slightly below. AVC’s initial data suggests 8-9%yoy growth
in unit shipment during Golden Week and Mid-Autumn Holiday.

9 則留言:

  1. 其實簡單一點~ 到阻力位開小注淡試水溫~ 現在每天的波幅都好大 中段先入場會好蝕章 個人睇法!!
    THX YOUSIR分析

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  2. 大市太過波動,美股的日線圖更是瘋狂,相信做好做淡都要輸...

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  3. 巴士仔: 其實昨天恆指在10天線遇到一些阻力,我買入的比重也是在2%以內的小注;但奈何市況波幅太大,遭受到的損失是高於我預期的

    Gold Sir: 歡迎到訪!關於牛熊證買賣,還要向閣下多學習。所以我暫時靠邊站,以冷靜自己

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  4. YOU SIR~ 好同意期子的波幅大+快 我差不多2年無玩子數 真的好瘋

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  5. 港股轉勢,但無貨在手的感覺絶不好受。經一番掙扎後,還是決定按兵不動;之前既然決定暫時離場冷靜,不要太著緊熊市的反彈浪,便須按紀律,不要太被市場情緒牽著走

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  6. YES YOU SIR~ 唔通真的日日升......? 現在單日的波幅 無200點都嫌少. 有時仲要單日上落2次....@_@

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  7. 點解無牛三但要有熊三?
    242

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  8. 242:多謝留言,剛剛發表的新文已表達有關立場

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  9. The reason is. The costs for reverse osmosis can vary between $180 and
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    Have a look at my blog post: reverse osmosis water filter arsenic

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