2012年8月31日星期五

8月份月結

目前組合:


GOCO (81) 12.2%
China Resources Gas (1193) 12.1%
SUNAC (1918) 9.9%
Towngas China (1083) 9.5%
Yuexiu Property (123) 7.7%
L' Occitane (973) 7.1%
Standard Chartered (2888) 6.8%
Luk Fook (590) 6.3%
Hysan Development (14) 5.5%
Future Bright (703) 5.4%
Singamas Container (716) 5.4%
China Shipping Developmnet (1138) 4.6%
Cash 7.6%

8月份回報:1.6%
Year to date  回報:1%



在一輪資產調配及資金重新投入股市後,上月的投資表現有所改善,減少買賣次數對投資回報亦有幫助。組合中的股票以具防守性的燃氣股佔了頗大比重,而重倉內房股是因剛性需求支持行業的銷售;組合內的其他股份是和大盤相關性較少,且有獨特賣點的股份

把少量資金調配往周期股上,但暫時看來1138是押錯注。但有關注碼控制在低水平,且1138目前市值已遠低於帳面值;有能力可守下去,即使止蝕也宜候反彈至一個稍高的水平

宏觀經濟前景仍不甚明朗,尤其是市場可能低估中國的經濟問題。目前仍有股票在買入觀察名單內;但在目前的上落市市況,更需要學習的是當持股累積一定升幅後獲利吐現

10 則留言:

  1. 謝謝You sir分享組合,今時今日已屬難得,我都持有大量中海發展,市值已經冇咗六成,後市都唔太樂觀,只有死守一途.

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    1. 其實你的中海發展一早應止蝕,但目前股價跌到這水平,還是守下去算數;希望閣下能從這次失敗交易中能汲取教訓

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  2. 投資天才偉哥的投票眼光不錯

    http://hkstockinvestment.blogspot.hk/2010/06/blog-post_20.html

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  3. Specifically for 1138 and 716, I consider 716 is superior to 1138
    716 advantages:
    FA
    Much better management
    Better container liner industry vs dry bulk (mainly driven by China, but Chinese econ still quite weak)
    More concentrated (and healthy) market for container manufacturing market
    Specialized containers’ capacity constraints to be eased in 2H12. though some start up losses are expected, it should be offset soon
    Latent demand for replacement. Average age of container box is now already ~9years.
    Comparably low valuation (1138’s book value is “inflated” as many of their vessels are purchased at peak level; and 716 has quite high dividend yield)
    TA: weekly MACD is a very good indicator for 716 (which fits into its cyclical nature), clear in and out signal

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    1. Thanks for your insightful contribution. So far I concur with you. As far as I know the price trend of container box is still okay.

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  4. You Sir, 可能我地大跌眼鏡, 可能向上突破機會更大, 今朝股市升到癲左 (大陸), 成交巨量, 好似幾堅

    睇資金流向, 好似今日專升落後的週期股, 相反早前有一大段升幅的強勢股有些倒跌。睇黎我要買返一些週期了, 內房 1918 暫時是心水, 但與 A 股相關度高的內險, 我卻未有心水 ^^

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    1. 老實說我已經見怪不怪,經過這一年有多的上落市;已養成升市不要太興奮、跌市不要太恐慌的心態。由於是上落市,再加上太多人使用,大路的技術指標在近一年失效的例子屢見不鮮

      今時今日內險股和A股的相關性不是太大,保費增長的結構性問題才是內險股的挑戰

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  5. good point. anyhow, today is a follow through day that we have been waiting for ages...

    Kan

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