2015年7月2日星期四

更新@2 July:A股爆煲後的檢討及策略

- 經這一輪的下跌後,國內A股熊走勢初現;政府推出連番救市措施後市場仍無反應,持續一年多的短命牛市可能已告完結。

- 近日港股略為企穩,但不少二、三線股份仍持續大幅下滑,弱勢與A股不相伯仲。相信是所謂的”港A股”性質;不少二、三線股份,其莊家或主要投資者是國內資金。在A股暴跌後,引來的斬倉潮迫使投資者沽出股票套現,在火燒連環船效應下令這批港A股被受波及;即使該批股份的基本面及估值仍相當吸引。亦反映當今港股市場深度不夠。

- 此外,經4月的上升行情後,不少基本因素欠佳的中資股份已不知不覺地打回原型(e.g.鋼鐵、水泥、航運等等)。

- A股的牛市行情可能告一段落。但不代表港股會進入熊市。畢竟A股的升市,港股未有跟足,A股轉熊;港股亦無須跟足。而港股的整體估值仍算合理,除了4月的那一段以外,整體市況未曾出現過熱情況;整體上仍是慢牛形態。但選股策略上須作出改變,可再次偏重傳統藍籌、或過去一年跌得很多的板塊。

-  國內A股仍難擺脫新興市場的非理性特質;反之,同時反映中國經濟的港股,表現出較成熟理性的特質。經此一役,相信港股進一步可得到國內較理性投資者的青睞。

- 目前投資表現可謂相當差,5月底的year to date 回報一度升上20%以上,但目前已大幅降至單位數。歸根究底,是應對市況逆轉的能力不夠;以及無意會到A股崩盤對這批”港A股”帶來的流動性影響。但汲取以往經驗,最近數年投資表現強差人意,其中原因是選對了好的股票,但未能承受市場震盪,在不適合的時機被震走;或在股價很超賣時沽出。目前持有的好些股票屬於或類同”港A股”,近日股價的急跌是出於資金多於基本因素轉壞,目前沽出並不化算。組合內好些具增長主題的”港A股”,不妨堅守並承受市場震盪。

- 組合調整的策略是降低和A股相關性高的股份,以及增加傳統藍籌和美股的比重。



目前組合:


股份
比重
Value Partners (806)
13.2%
Facebook (FB)
12.6%
YueYun Trans (3399)
11.5%
AIA (1299)
9.7%
Apple Inc (AAPL)
9.2%
Ping An (2318)
7.6%
Berkshire Hathaway B (BRK.B)
7.2%
Kraft (KRFT)
6.9%
Launch Tech (2488)
6.8%
CAR (699)
5.9%
Travelsky Tech (696)
4.9%
FTSE Greece 20 ETF (GREK)
4.6%

Ytd 回報:5.5%


34 則留言:

  1. 港股四月發癲,現時回望當發左場夢;下半年重新洗牌打過!努力!

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    1. 經歷多年的投資,對股市的大上大落己睇化了;保持心理質素,不要作panic sell

      806及2318可能受A股崩盤拖累,而2488目前只屬概念階段

      但3399,696,699等,無論從盈利表現及估值等均屬很合理;近日被拋售,絶對屬無辜

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  2. You Sir
    今日跌市可跟08年股災一比,慘烈情況令大家都目定口呆
    係港股投資賺錢,越來越像在刀口上搵食一樣,隨時流血不止
    沽貨時機已過,今年的盈利也已化水,現在只好等待
    You Sir對大市如何判斷?真的又回去上落市?還是更差的大跌市即將到來?

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    1. 相信是大陸阻止資金在A股市場沽貨,故中資資金轉往沽售港股套現,令港股二三線股出現股災式的下跌

      還是今年初決定正確,把資金調往美股,但見4月中的大升市後,港股的比重還是有所增加

      港股的確是越來越難玩,事後孔明,當然沽貨可決斷些。但對比08年,至少有個雷曼倒閉的負面新聞,但今番國內A股,卻在無特別壞的消息下,完成失速下滑。針對今番跌市環境,事後檢討,可以改善的空間也有,但不是特別多

      正路來說目前應是繼續過去數年的慢牛,或上落市形態。但囼內如此著急救市,反令人覺得有點事不尋常,是否預示國內己到金融危機爆發的邊際

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    2. 經一番資產調配,及港股資產眨值後;美股的比重已提升至60%以上;但今天中小型股繼續失速下滑,組合表現繼續受重創,唉

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  3. 上星期太過相信阿爺可以救到個市,以致錯失了沽貨時機。
    現在只能見步行步,希望不是那種雪球式的金融風暴跟住發生吧

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    1. 大家咁話,遺憾地仍未從08年金融海嘯中汲取足夠救訓

      此外,今次跌市來得很急,而本人在應對急速的市場逆轉向來做得不夠好;此外,大家也未有充分預估A股急跌對中小型股的風險

      正面地看,去年開始涉足美股有正面成果,回報雖未至於十分豐厚。但至少令投資組合中部分資產不受A股回落衝擊,否則更不堪設想。經此一役,國際化投資更應是未來大方向

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    2. 暫時定性為類似87年的liquidity crash股災

      中國經濟差眾所周知,但目前暫不見有資金鏈斷裂或地方債未能還款等的經濟爆煲跡象

      早前己沽出2318,並買入Disney

      組合中的2488或需要write off,但相信餘下的港股成員仍有力一守

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    3. You Sir
      我覺得不用太灰心,雖然發生股災,但現在遍地白菜價的好野,像你的3399,這幾天我都在調倉,好股應該有大機會上番去。
      這次沒有牛市而直接進入股災,很難做到很好,而且跌得實在太急,現在不應該太悲觀

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    4. 其實這幾年也是牛市,不過是慢牛;應該修正說沒有經歷牛三(4月初的2個星期太短,很難算入牛三數)便進入股災

      近一個星期的急跌災情已接近08年金融海嘯及01年911,超越03年沙士和11年歐債。要命的是,跌勢來得很急,之前出事的明顯徵兆並不多。事後檢討,當中央出重手救市,市場反應仍然負面,便要提高警覺了

      港股越來越難玩,的確不要把投資全放在中港股市

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    5. 在中國政府寬松的貨幣政策下,我不相信大市會步入長期熊市,尤其港股在大跌後已經去到全球最平的情況,我是看好後市的

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    6. 我認為市場會重回慢牛形態,只是經此輪洗牌後;市場風險胃納降低,板塊偏好可能會有所改變,選股較為重視穩定性及估值、多於吸引的投資主題或上升動力

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  4. YOU SIR, 您好!

    本来这几天心情一直非常差,今年有大胜到大败,就只是两个星期,就把今年的盈利亏光,还要倒输不少,但今天却还是鼓起勇气,把手头一些不好的股票狠狠抛弃,买入一些大跌的好股,希望好股有好报。

    RABIT

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    1. 相信股市總有反彈一天,而見底回升的話應以估值、及價值為主;多於投資主題及概念

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  5. 留意恆指已跌近其長期升軌的底部支持,且看今番會否有強力反彈

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    1. you sir,

      現在港股被A股逼入大時代, 大跌後短期底部可能出現, 此時減港股進美股, 似乎不如沽美股撈港股. 畢竟港股估值相當便宜, 而美股牛了好幾年, 見頂機會越來越高.

      我不同意您此時減港股加美股的做法. 我認為, 為風險控制考慮而減持港股, 不等於一定要再買入股票, 我們可以選擇留現金在手.

      最佳的防守應該是增持現金而非轉投強股如美股之類.

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    2. 多謝陳sir意見

      增持環球股票會是未來大方向,我想以外美股及香港上市的國際企業(如AIA、宏利等)要佔股票資產的35%至70%

      目前海外股票佔比64%,加上中港股市的低殘表現,在策略調配上可增持一些港股

      昨天中午有考慮趁低買入港股,但被跌幅擴大至2,000點嚇怕了。今天港股終有強烈反彈,A股雖仍反彈乏力,但國內創業板已率先有較強反彈

      今天應會略為增持港股

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    3. 至於美股,暫時未見見頂警號。要留意宏觀指標是美元走勢,只要美元未有顯著走強,美股表現應是可穩步上升的

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  6. 自回歸後港股年回報只得3%(以6月底25944計),這種市場主力做長倉的人早應放棄。目前全球股市都似乎失去動力,多持現金應是上策。

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    1. 所以近年開始投資美股,so far的表現尚算可以;只要美元無明顯轉強,不見美股有很大的利淡因素

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  7. You Sir, it's been long time since we chat
    Just some sharing, I think it may be good to further expand your investment choices, like
    1) different countries stock mkts, commodities, currencies and
    2) not only long but also short

    As there are quite a long of opportunities
    Even if there is none, it will give you a comprehensive view / feel
    Since 2013 I have been expanding to US stock, then lately to commodities (many commodities ETF in US) and FX
    Money can be made in bulls and bears


    Below are my simple investment rules for sharing (as my choices are quite wide, I now focus mainly on technical analysis like 70% to save time, which is also very effective)

    1. Use simple moving average to determine trend
    Sma200 long term
    Sma50 mid
    Sma20 short
    If all (or 2/3) point to same direction, follow that direction

    2. Range trade consolidation
    Then break with large vol
    Follow that direction

    3. Close to high or low for buy or sell
    Coz for but, it means less "crab inventory" for a nice uptrend
    Vice versa

    4. Good price vol interaction
    Use OBV

    5. Close to sma200 / daily or weekly RSI, so enough potential

    The above saved me from HK and A share plunge, also benefited me for commodities / FX plunge


    Finally a bit of sharing for current market situation
    Overall it seems weak (emerging mkt) are gaining strength while strong (US, like IBB) are unwinding
    Although still relatively bearish longer term, shorter term weak like EEM, commodities, ADXY seems too oversold
    For further plunge it seems a nice rebound should be here first
    Under this backdrop, rebound in HK (HSCEI) is likely (and seems happening)

    And in HK, it seems gaming sector like 200 2282 are getting very interesting
    In US side, MPEL also gaining strength, LVS ready to break


    Look forward to your further sharing :)

    TL

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    1. Thanks for your insight.

      Yes, seems that HSI and A shares is gaining momentum recently, though the medium term is still bearish. Strong government intervention and expectations on SOEs M&A are giving the market some fuel.

      I have Macau gaming shares in my shortlist, as they are eventually trending up having suffered the bearish trend in the past year. Nonetheless, I do not see any strong catalysts other than that they have been severely oversold.

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    2. Hi TL,

      I like your way of trading. Are you a professional full time trader? Do you only take profit when the trend is over? How do you identify that?

      Thanks.

      PL

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    3. Thanks for your compliment PL.
      I'm just a young guy with keen interest in stock mkt only (also plentiful experience of losing money previously haha)
      In fact dare not 班門弄斧 at You Sir's blog and it's just for sharing

      To identify when trend is over, currently I gradually reduce positions if RSI (weekly / daily) overbought / sold. While keep certain positions for trending indicators to confirm
      BUT I also suffered from closing short positions too early in these 2 weeks and YTD return down from 15 % to 10%
      So I'm still learning, as lack professional indicators help like TD sequentials and the like (costing USD500 / mth at Bloomberg terminal...)

      Besides reading Your Sir's blog, highly suggest you to read 李順威 columns on Mingpao web (and buy Monday Mingpao for his weekly commentary)
      Also you can send email to him at shunwailee@hotmail.com for his weekly "testpoint" for further learning
      (His is my perfect God btw)

      TL

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    4. 抱歉沒有回覆閣下的留言,您的成績其實已很好了

      早前已減持不少港股,但遺憾資金撤離潮擴散至美股,美股的持倉也受重創;近日也有把美股倉位減持

      目前的現金比率已調升至30%以上

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  8. You Sir

    My name is Samuel, I am impressed by your analysis over the stock market! I would like to sincerely invite you to our independent financial media platform, we could further promote you and your page to our fans in HK and China.

    Please let me know if you are interested via email,, I can send you more information about us, thank you very much.

    Regards
    Samuel

    samuel.wan@moleculez.co

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    1. thanks for your interest but sorry not very interested in the meantime

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    2. You Sir

      Thank you for getting back to me :)

      Please let me know if you are interested to join in the future, we sincerely invite you to collaborate with us.

      Regards
      Samuel

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  9. Hi You Sir,

    With i) such oversold + stabilized technical indicators like 陰陽燭 鎚頭 in HSCEI, ii) (relatively) stable credit market, iii) easing tension in EUR JPY unwinding, iv) gradual emergence of strong stocks, do you think a major bottom have been seen last week?

    And any stock picks you are close watching?
    For me, I'm watching
    For rebound (60%): HSCEI, HSI ETF / Oil plays like USO, 386 / 16
    Consistent strong plays (40%): IBB, XBI, QQQ

    THX!

    TL

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    1. 港股在嚴重超賣後有企穩的跡象,但反彈動力仍是明顯地不夠,單單超賣不是買入的理由

      近日增持了好些美股,最近有買入IBB

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  10. You Sir,


    一直承蒙賜教,獲益良多。

    祝您2016年身體健康,萬事如意,財源廣進。


    RABIT

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  11. looking forward to your new posts you sir

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  12. Hi you sir, any reason why you stop posting ?
    i am your fan since 2013
    thanks,
    Kan

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  13. Are you looking for free Twitter Followers?
    Did you know that you can get these ON AUTOPILOT & ABSOLUTELY FREE by using Like 4 Like?

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