2011年8月2日星期二

單天保至尊

今天組合逆市升0.7%,原因是中海外宏洋(81)公佈中期純利增14倍,刺激股價升15%。慶幸自己有買入此股,加上組合內的六福(590)、合生元(1112)、及國美(493)等逆市造好,故今天組合有鼓舞回報。買入中海外宏洋的靈感,是來自友blog的CUP20。當然我不是照組合內的冧把照單全買,參考了CUP20後還配合自己的功課及想法;不過這證明CUP20是有用的screening 工具,多謝CUP Sir這項小發明。買入81的資金不多,但今次無後悔不加碼。因把三、四線城市內房股的注碼分注於恆大地產(3333)及此股,佔組合比重已逾12%,對仍有政策風險的板塊而言差不多是上限。

今天組合逆市上升,但心情並不興奮。大盤的弱勢已相當明顯:近日的美國經濟數據反映美國經濟正急速放慢,雙底衰退憂慮重現、股票市場在美國國債上限危機解決後的反彈相當短暫。另一個觀察是大盤轉弱的濶度,水泥板塊轉弱後,剩下的強勢板塊逾來逾少;一些早前被視為很穩健的個股,如友佳(2398)、理文(746)、京信通信(2342)等,近日被洗的力度實在令人吃驚。

老實說已有再步入熊市的心理準備,惟仍以半進取姿態出擊,是自己的選股及資產配置能力、再加上一些運氣;組合內的持股大部份仍然是相當強勢,我不欲因單單因為沽出而沽出。較早前博文指出,即使是熊市,也會有一些逆市奇葩,如02至03年的創科(669)、德永佳(321)、及勝獅(716);97至98年的德昌(179)、利豐(494)及偉易達(303)等等(08年的那一次因全球出現系統性金融危機,所以幾乎所有板塊全線下滑)。既然組合持股逆市展現強勢,不妨乘勢坐下去,直至它們炒爆為止。只要按紀律地及有系統地止蝕/止賺,不用太擔心這些剩餘牛氣板塊轉熊時無機會離場;正如之前的水泥股、東岳(189)、信義玻璃(868)等,我都是參考技術訊號,在走勢開始轉弱時以大致合適時機退出。


最後,中國央行近日表明下半年貨幣政策不會鬆動,並以調控物價為首要目標。對此我不以為然,08年上半年我國政府對當時外圍經濟顯著下滑的風險視而不見,繼續推出收緊政策以應付通脹。到第三季時才發覺經濟政策出現超調,經濟下滑風險比想像中快;迫使第四季中央政府推出四萬億救市方案,埋下了今天的地方債風險。現時的情況和08年有時相似,西方國家再衰退風險顯著增加;不調整經濟政策的話,明年經濟可能再見失速下滑。



央行:下半年货币政策不松动

 2011年08月02日 02:40  中国证券网-上海证券报

  记者 李丹丹(微博)
  就在市场对下半年货币政策预期松动之时,日前召开的中国人民银行分支行行长座谈会或许可以向市场传递出央行的态度。会议指出,国内通胀预期依然较强,稳定物价的基础还不牢固,一旦政策松动就有反弹的可能。下半年要继续实施好稳健的货币政策,保持必要的政策力度。
  央行指出,下半年,要按照中央的决策部署,继续切实处理好保持经济平稳较快发展、调整经济结构、管理通胀预期三者关系,坚持把稳定物价总水平作为宏观调控的首要任务,继续实施好稳健的货币政策,保持必要的政策力度。同时,把握好调控的方向、力度和节奏,进一步提高调控的针对性、灵活性和前瞻性。
  在货币政策工具的采用上,会议表示要综合运用利率、汇率、公开市场操作、存款准备金率和宏观审慎管理等工具组合,保持合理的社会融资规模和节奏。

26 則留言:

  1. bad news indeed, have to consider retreat plan execution

    Moody’s, Fitch Affirm U.S. Ratings While Warning of Downgrades

    Moody’s Investors Service and Fitch Ratings affirmed their AAA credit ratings for the U.S. while warning that the ratings could be downgraded if lawmakers fail to enact debt reduction measures and the economy weakens.

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-02/u-s-aaa-rating-faces-moody-s-downgrade-on-debt-economic-slowdown-concern.html

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  2. After seven days of continuing drops, see if Dow can show some resistence tonight.
    Now with 15% cash, bought some 315 this morning.

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  3. tontongood: 315 sounds a good buy. After this few days of market development, I am further convinced with the view that the cash % level is not the most important (unless in a big market crash like the 08 financial tsunami). What matters more is the quality of your stock holdings. I am amazed by the resilient performance of 590, 1112, and 81 amid such a market downturn.

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  4. I seriously consider selling some stocks but decide to hold on in the moment. The price performance of my holdings is not that bad actually. Also, trading experience suggests that it is not a good idea to sell right after a the US market experienced a tumble.

    That doesn't mean I am optimistic. Rather, I am getting much more cautious on the recent market development. 999, 3333 and 358 are high on my alert list and close to my selling point.

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  5. You Sir,小弟淺見,我認為中央想留一招對付美國再推 QE3,美國如果經濟繼續下滑,推QE3 應該可以預期發生,到時資金又會再流回新興市場,中央怕惡性通脹,所以暫時話不會放寬政策也無可厚非,因為一旦公佈咗放水,到時再收緊就難了....

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  6. clothings is more unpredictable comoparing to other items. high end (such as 999) is not a guarantee either. 709 is boring but it may be a catch for middle class who wanted to have cheap & quality & fashion. but lowend fasion may not sell either.
    Thus, luxury goods may be a better choice in a M society. 887 / 398 / 590 may be a safer bet (to certain extent).

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  7. 請問You Sir的81宏洋目標價是多少?
    最近急升,但又見有成交配合,感覺似是追貨追高股價,不像是派貨,因為此股貨源比較歸邊.不知You兄有何睇法? THX!!

    Issac

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  8. Issac: 大行目前給予81的目標價在15至17元,以近兩天的升幅及成交而言,升勢肯定是堅廷的

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  9. 達人兄:你的說法不無道理,所以很我人說目前是金融亂局;但我認為目前仍是保增長較重要

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  10. pisces: You made a very good point that luxury goods performs well in a M society environment. Unless China suffers a hard landing, it seems the downside risk of luxury consumer goods is limited.

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  11. 今天組合在81、590、及1112等力撑下,令人驚喜地只跌約0.3%,絶對是輸少當贏。把組合內相對表現較差的999及358沽出。不少強勢股今天表現出不俗承接力,有想過利用沽出的資金加碼,但目前宏觀情況還是相當不明朗,暫時還是忍手算,不宜太冒進

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  12. Hi you Sir, have you notice 270 & 1169, I think they both with good potentials.

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  13. tontongood: I have no idea on them currently but definitely I will give them a look as suggested by you.

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  14. This is interesting, today all recent strong stocks got beaten.

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  15. tontongood: The technicaly signal looks pretty worrisome. Anyway, I think I've finetuned my mindset to live with an increasingly likely bear market. More to share tonite.

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  16. 今天多隻強股倒下, 如果市場不是崩盤, 那這星期就很有可能見到大市的短期底部.

    但形勢這麼惡劣, 我實在不敢再輕言看好. 下午誠哥不知能否帶來好消息為大市增加些反彈動力.

    無論如何, 現在是應該多點防守了. 早上1828大跌, 措手不及下失去高位沽貨的先機, 但也照樣沽清了, 買進270防守.

    我組合中還有幾隻也是大跌, 但仍守住突破位, 十五十六下, 也不知該不該沽出:(

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  17. I will not give up till tomorrow, by then things should be more clear.
    Already have a few defensive stocks and they perform ok so far.

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  18. The situation is quite alarming. The reason that I still hold on is that majority of my stock holdings are still on the uptrend, thanks to my good stock skills.

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