2011年10月11日星期二

判斷失誤 須離場冷靜

國內黃金周期間,包括港股在內的外圍股市強勢反彈,但國內股市今天仍要跌近1%。我看作這是非常利淡訊號,反映國內經濟隱憂。恆指方面,升抵10天線後反彈力度不繼,開市升百多點後,反倒跌並跌幅擴大;且除受惠黃金周數據利好的百貨零售股外,市場的跌幅也頗為廣濶;當時感到是做淡的機會。

有見歐洲央行近日加強救市力度,也不敢貿然造淡。下午三時歐洲開市後,恆指跌幅再顯著擴大,當時認為向淡的訊號已獲確認,便買入恆指熊證。誰不知恆指在收市前半小時V型反彈,短短半小時把250多點的跌幅完全收復。雖則注碼很少,損失有限;但也感到欠運及心痛。

周五西班牙及意大利被降評級,但刺激今天歐洲股市上升的,是這篇新聞:



Euro Leaders Target Bank Capital in Crisis Plan


Angela Merkel and Nicolas Sarkozy turned their crisis-fighting focus to banks, promising a recapitalization blueprint this month that will overtake a 12- week-old rescue plan that has yet to be put into place.
“We will recapitalize the banks,” the French president said in Berlin yesterday at a joint briefing with the German chancellor without providing details. “We’ll do it in complete agreement with our German friends because the economy needs it, to assure growth and financing.”
Facing rising pressure to defuse turmoil that’s raged for 19 months and growing concern Greece is headed to a default, Merkel said European leaders will do “everything necessary” to ensure that banks have enough capital. Sarkozy said they would deliver a plan by the Nov. 3 Group of 20 summit.
Searching for what each called a “durable” solution for Greece’s debt load shows they have moved beyond a July 21 plan that Luxembourg’s Jean-Claude Juncker called the “final package, of course.” Their approach may spike a debt swap now being negotiated that would impose a 21 percent write-off and suggests investors take a bigger share of the losses, reflecting the deterioration of the Greek economy.
“There is a big difficulty with respect to the Greek situation because it is looking as if the July 21 agreement just isn’t sufficient and that’s been increasingly recognized in Greece and the rest of Europe,” Julian Callow, chief European economist at Barclays Capital in London, said today on Bloomberg Television’s On the Move with Francine Lacqua.

再加上近日歐洲央行對金融市場的注資行動,歐洲危機的政策轉折點或已出現,但前提是歐債危機不再擴散至西班牙及意大利。

匯金其實在今天已出手增持四大銀行並刺激其股價上揚;但國內A股今天仍顯著下挫。中港股市大落後的表現已表明市場下一個憂慮焦點很大機會在我國:



国家队再出手 汇金增持四大行股价逆势上涨

中央汇金公司今日宣布,自10月10日起已在二级市场自主购入工、农、中、建四行股票,并继续进行相关市场操作。
受此消息影响,四大行的股价今日逆势走高,其中中国银行(2.87,0.02,0.70%)涨0.70%,农业银行(2.47,0.01,0.41%)涨0.41%,工商银行(3.99,0.01,0.25%)涨0.25%,建设银行(4.41,0.01,0.23%)涨0.23%。由于其他银行股不振,银行板块周一整体下跌0.30%。
明天頗大機會把熊證淡倉止蝕平掉,蒙受輕微損失。多項指標反映環球形勢略回穩,今次反彈應可維持較長。但從中港股市的相對大落後表現推敲,本人今天選擇做淡也不是全無道理。近期的買賣成績欠佳,明天才為組合加倉也會失去先機,也不想被市場牽著走。趁目前組合表現仍是相對優於大盤時,應離場冷靜。

14 則留言:

  1. 我未見過你在態証贏錢, 都是算了吧

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  2. 睇番轉頭~ HSI係162XX時期子大量減倉,之後2日反彈1500, 昨日都只回2XX點, 相信就算再插大戶都要時間去儲淡倉 !!

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  3. 我暫時看重要阻力在 18400-18800,今早高開後又明顯回落,今次只是熊市中的反彈,頂多都是熊二反彈(幅度大一點),但反彈過後會繼續下跌並穿底,所以不愁無做淡機會

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  4. 匿名:之前的熊證也有賺過錢,但我承認這方面的買賣大有改進空間;今次買入熊證也是牛刀小試,注碼小於2%

    達人兄:正是國內A股的大弱勢使我堅持下去,且看3點歐洲開市後市況進展如何。恆指今天的高位正是略高於18400,暫時阻力似乎頗明顯

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  5. Cut loss HSI bear cert, has to make a lesson from it and stay away for a while

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  6. China stock market's weakness make me more determine to keep the current cash level.

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  7. 我認為熊市已結束!

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  8. 屁股:熊市很少會在這情況下完結

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  9. 屁股:你提出了有趣論點。87年股災是否算是熊市其實也有爭議性,我個人傾向這是一次過的大調整;以我理解,當年經濟周期無明顯下滑;這個還要請教年資很久的前輩的看法

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  10. tontongood: But given a satisfactory consumer figures in China during the Golden Week (as discussed in my new article), the signal in China is not completely bearish.

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  11. you sir,

    do you think it's time to jump back into market?

    Regards,

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  12. Kan: I've expressed my viewpoint in my latest article. I deeply regret that I haven't bought anything recently. If your stock weighting is very low or with completely no stock, it's not too late to add back a little stock into your portfolio. But we've missed the opportunity to buy aggressively.

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  13. Fort Max Diet - de meta para perder peso en est
    dieta? Definitivamente debes tener un objetivo
    en mente. como-Bajarpeso.com El control del peso puede parecer complejo, pero manejar tu peso simplemente tiene que ver para usted, y ya que la dieta de jugo te
    da energa, te dars cuenta de que eres muy productivo.


    Berem Kitajsko tudijo, zdi se mi zelo zanimivo peso entre todas las presiones
    de este mundo. Hay aquellos que recurren a las pldoras de dieta y otras ideas
    para ayudarse a lograr el peso idela. como bajar de peso en una semana una dieta?
    Con un par de conceptos clave y una comprensin bsica de las
    caloras, puede ser fcil mantener tu peso actual, mientras comes
    una variedad de alimentos nutritivos.

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