2012年2月14日星期二

市底不差及MI能源(1555)

今天行動:
沽出 保利協鑫能源(3800):持股中率先失守10天線(目前持股除1211及3800外,全部企穩在10天線以上);12年預測市盈率及市帳率分別約13倍及1.8倍,太陽能行業面對的不確定因素較多,我對行業的遠景無太大把握;在估值不吸引及TA略有轉弱下,先行微利套現
買入 MI能源(1555):首先是TA好,中線升軌已成形,股價升破突破點後能守穩其上並見強力支持。在參閱劵商報告後(見下文轉載),認為公司有吸引投資賣點。目前預測PE約6倍,預測ROE在25%水平;雖則是民企身份及面對海外堪探風險,但對比己被市場廣泛覆蓋、面對油井老化或油田堪探遭遇困難的國企油股更有增長動力及吸引力

恆指今天輕微上升,是靠本港地產股支撐,不少板塊的動力開始減弱。再配合美匯指數近日企穩的觀察,大盤是進入整固期居多。

但另一角度看,歐洲多個主要國家相繼被下調評級、國家社保基金沽出內銀股份、國內A股繼續整固,港股在此背景下有如此表現反映市底仍是不弱。由環球資金回流新興市場所帶動的回歸合理估值過程(mean reversion)不會一時三刻完成,港股即使要調整幅度也會有限,估計恆指最多跌至20天線已有強力支持。

除了以投機性角度持有的比亞迪(1211)外,其餘持股的TA俱仍然強勢,且估值大部份仍在吸引區;目前無須刻意再進一步增持現金。

趁這個整固期,要觀察好那些是真正強股、那些是落後股;其實從個別股份這一個星期的表現看,已可初步看出一些端倪。目前本人的持股絶大部分仍是合格有餘。

目前組合:
Ping An (2318)11.3%
Singamas Container (716)9.6%
Chongqing Machinery (2722)9.3%
Evergrande (3333)8.9%
SUNAC (1918)8.2%
VTM Mining (893)8.0%
Dongyue (189)7.9%
BYD (1211)7.7%
Guangzhou Ship (317)6.2%
Anton Oilfield (3337)6.1%
MI Energy (1555)4.7%
Chu Kong Pipe (1938)4.0%
Cash8.1%


有關MI能源(1555)的劵商報告:

中國國際 11年11月28日
MIE presents an attractive investment story. The recent acquisition of Emir-Oil is expected to significantly boost its oil reserves and output. There are also favourable developments at its PSC projects in China. The company’s shares are also trading at low valuations.

In mid-September, MIE completed the acquisition of Emir-Oil which has four oilfields and six prospects close to Aktau in western Kazakhstan. According to Chapman Petroleum Engineering, Emir-Oil had 1P and 2P oil reserves of 23.5m bbl and 85.0m bbl, respectively. The acquisition will boost MIE’s 1P and 2P oil reserves by 72% and 162%, respectively. By ramping up the output of Emir-Oil, we expect MIE’s 2011-13 CAGR in oil output to accelerate from 12% to 33%. The acquisition of Emir-Oil will provide a new growth
driver for MIE.

More importantly, the acquisition gives MIE the access to the oil industry in Kazakhstan, a rising oil-producing country. According to BP Statistical Review of World Energy, Kazakhstan was the 18th largest crude oil producer in the world in 2010. The crude oil output of Kazakhstan posted a CAGR of 9.0% in
2000-10, much faster than the 0.9% CAGR for the world over the same period. Kazakhstan also ranked the eighth in terms of proved oil reserve and reserve life among all countries in the world in 2010. The establishment of a foothold in Kazakhstan makes MIE a much more interesting company and we
do not rule out further acquisitions in Kazakhstan over the longer term.

In China, Daqing oil has been trading at a premium to Brent since April 2011. This will translate into higher realised oil price for MIE’s three PSC projects. On the other hand, the company has not been affected by the recent reform of resources tax on crude oil and natural gas as the Chinese government has clearly stated that existing PSC projects will continue to follow the old system. In addition, the company will benefit from a possible increase in the threshold of windfall tax.

It has seen encouraging results from the six infill wells drilled in 2010 and they accounted for 70% and 99% additions to 1P and 2P oil reserves respectively in Daan Oilfield in 2010. The company plans to drill 455 more infill wells over time, with 36 of them planned for 2011. This could translate into more significant reserve addition in future.

Overall, we increase our 2012 and 2013 EPS forecasts by 5% and 34%, respectively, mainly to reflect the higher realised oil price for the production sharing contract (PSC) projects in China, and the inclusion of contributions from Emir-Oil.
We reiterate our BUY call on MIE although we lower our target price from HK$3.51 to HK$3.09. The reduction in the price target is mainly because we now set our target price at our PV10 valuation, instead of at a 10% premium we previously adopted.


JP Morgan 11年10月13日


Seeing is believing: Our visit to the various fields and bases of Emir Oil made obvious the reason for lack of production growth and decline under BMB Munai. Lack of cash at BMB led to a neglect of the assets and a difficult relationship with the suppliers as they were not getting paid. We also note the presence of fields “nextdoor” to Emir’s assets - Jupiter Energy's (Australia listed) Block 31 has shown good test results on two exploration wells (third one soon), while MMG (50:50 CNPC: KazMunaiGas JV) has 3 fields (Alatobe, Accop and North Asar) next to Emir's acreage also under exploration and development.

Acquisition can add 30-40% to 1Q11 reported production by 1-2Q12E: Work-over at the neglected wells is the quickest way to add production, with each well possibly adding between 0.2-0.5kbopd. Moreover, MIE is currently working on a budget for next year outlining the program for the next 1-2 years. For reference, MIE’s current production is 10kbopd in China and 2.5kbopd in Kazakh. Emir Oil currently has three rigs available, adding another one early next year, potentially adding 10 wells a year.

Production updates to provide re-rating triggers: We believe MIE's production updates would help increasing investors’ comfort to this high growth name. For a company expected to effectively double production over the next 3 years and generating around 25-30% ROE, we deem MIE’s current valuation at 4x 2012E EPS, EV of US$14/BOE proven and US$5/BOE proved+probable reserves, as too low.

5 years investment break-even: On current production, MIE generates around US$30-35mn/year net cash from Emir Oil, which would take it 5 years to recover acquisition cost. In our base case, we estimate US$240mn capex over 2011-2015 period, which would help Emir ramp up production from current 2.5kbopd to 10.3 by 2015. On our oil price assumptions of US$95/90/85/85 /bbl for 2012/13/14/15, we estimate MIE would cover its acquisition cost+capex by early 2015, with US$70-80mn/year subsequent
net cash generation potential (this is what generates positive NPV).

Recent Kazakhstan developments: Aside we also note Kazakh government’s recent positive inclination around solving Karachaganak’s (2010: 360kbopd production and 5bn BOE ultimate recoverable reserves)
tax dispute and ownership structure with BG, Eni, Chevron and Lukoil. We take this development as a constructive signal from the govt to collaborate with foreign oil companies.
We spent the previous week travelling through Kazakhstan on a field visit to Emir Oil to gain first hand experience of what MIE has just bought. In a nutshell, the assets are there (!), operating (producing) and ready to receive fresh working capital and capital spending required to restart the development plan which was halted due to previous owner BMB Munai’s difficult financial position. MIE has outperformed Hang Seng small cap index by 47% since its Dec 2010 listing but we believe there is still substantial value to be generated from Emir Oil with MIE as new owner.

19 則留言:

  1. 花旗表示,中國工程機械年初至今反彈強勁,市場已消化貨幣政策轉趨寬鬆,對該板塊看法由積極轉為中性,其中中聯重科<01157.HK>及龍工<03339.HK>股價上漲34%及26%,同期恆指僅漲13%,股評級由「買入」降至「中性」,中聯重科目標價微升0.1元至11.6元,龍工維持3.3元。首選三一國際<00631.HK>,因股價落後,目標價微降0.3元至7.6元,評級「買入」。(mi/a)

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  2. 如果今個星期咁樣收市, 14RSI將高於60

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  3. 誠中:剛再查看aastock,週線的14RSI應過70時才有明顯的調整風險,謝謝提點

    http://www.aastocks.com/tc/stock/detailchart.aspx?symbol=110000#GTop

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  4. U sir ,
    連日本都加大力度印銀紙,現在只待大陸鬆銀根,嗰市唔升至奇!

    投機青年

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  5. You Sir: 1555 前天有瞄過不過無買入錯過了, 1938 今日大成交, 如升破 2.7 我都會加多一注

    恭喜你今日大豐收 ^-^

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  6. 893 雖然短線超買, 但 以 中線能夠去到 保守目標價 2.50 黎睇, 仍然有加注空間

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  7. 《經濟通通訊社15日專訊》德意志銀行發表研究報告指,恆大(03333)公布1月份最新銷售數字,按年急跌74%,合約銷售金額達22億元(人民幣.下同),優於該行原先預期的10億元至20億元。
      報告指,由於1月份接近一半時間為公眾假期,恆大的銷售表現已經超出預期,加上其股價在現水平,相當於資產淨值折讓59%,因此仍為內房股中的首選之一。

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  8. 《經濟通通訊社14日專訊》巴克萊資本發表研究報告指,平保(02318)(滬:601318)公布1月份保費收入數據,壽險及產險分別按年增長16%及9%,為同業中增幅最高的保險公司。由於1月份有農曆新年假期的影響,相信2月份可望再錄得更進一步的增長。重申其「增持」投資評級,H股目標103﹒8元。
      報告指,其優於同業的增長,反映其經紀銷售渠道的高質素及高盈利能力,以及其專注於正常保險業務的經營模式,以行業相等於大約新業務價值七倍的估值計,平保為同類股份中的潛在升幅最大。
      雖然產險的增幅有明顯的放緩趨勢,但仍為同業中增長最高,相信2月份的增長動力將會恢復。

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  9. 投機兄:牛市中的調整多數都是很短暫,但也想不到這麼快今天又見一枝大陽燭了;還想計劃用些時間繼續部署買入對象

    達人兄:今天回報2.7%,算是不俗。1555前天在10天線前見支持並強勁反彈,已是一個不錯的買入訊號。893我有想過再加注,但該股的調整幅度及不夠深,很快又見支持並反彈了

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  10. You Sir ,關於3333,請問對這則新聞有什麼睇法?

    瘋狂沽空冚倉都要20日

    http://orientaldaily.on.cc/cnt/finance/20120216/00202_003.html

    市場不斷有聲音要求加強沽空披露,特別是有關對沖基金沽空活動,但對沖基金沽空有幾狠?從恒大地產(03333)及中信証券(06030)兩隻股份沽空已可窺見端倪!有投行人士透露,據過去一個月成交計算,對沖基金要全部回補恒大及中信証券空倉,要在市場「追貨」逾85億元。

    恒大中信証券涉85億

    消息透露,不少證券行「坐盤」後,因持股短期內不會沽售,吸引對沖基金「敲門」借貨,個別給予借貨證券行年率化回報達10%。消息又稱,近期對沖基金借貨沽空很活躍,以恒大為例,平均每家證券行借出8億至9億元恒大股份,若要全部「平倉」,按恒大過去一個月平均每日成交計算,相當於對沖基金要連掃十三日貨,期間更沒有其他投資者跟掃,按年初至今恒大日均成交額粗略計算,估計涉及資金54億元。
    港股沽空比率降至7%

    至於中信証券,要回補全部「空倉」相當連掃十多、二十日貨,涉及資金最多逾31億元。

    不過,很多時沽空某一隻股份,並非一面倒看淡,有時是因要進行對沖來平衡風險,以昨日為例,港股沽空額在對沖盤增加下,較對上一個交易日增加19%至57.73億元,沽空比率則回落至低於8%,只有7.01%。

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  11. Gackt: 不排除近日的突破上升是由補倉盤帶動,尤其是破位上升獲成交配合。然而,該公司近月的銷售在逆市下做得很好,目前估值也相當合理,單是補倉不能解釋近日的強勢

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  12. 聲勢犀利,恭喜YOU Sir 隻1555~~

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  13. 317 走勢 ma ma 地, 雖然估值仍然很低, 但我選擇先沽為敬~~

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  14. Iz33366: 1555利害,但原來今天跑出的是3333!

    達人兄:317仍可再給些機會觀察,不過組合中有些股票升勢已有不繼,為要持續跑贏大市,須部署換馬行動

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  15. probably the reason behind the mainland property rally today

    多城市上调普通住房标准

    http://finance.sina.com.cn/roll/20120217/011511395727.shtml

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  16. Thanks very nice blog!

    Feel free to surf to my blog calories burned walking

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