2013年1月16日星期三

組合更新@16 Jan及牛市操作分享

目前組合:


Greentown China (3900) 12.0%
Hysan Development (14) 7.6%
Ping An (2318) 6.7%
China Resources Gas (1193) 6.5%
Towngas China (1083) 6.2%
Poly Property (119) 6.1%
China Oilfield Services (2883) 6.0%
Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) 5.8%
Biostime (1112) 5.7%
Luk Fook (590) 5.5%
Great Eagle (41) 5.4%
Brilliance Automative (1114) 5.0%
Citic Securities (6030) 4.7%
Haitong Securities (6837) 4.3%
Cash 12.5%



- 大盤的累積升幅已高,且感受到升勢開始不繼,早前已把現金水平略為提高。但除非有明顯跡象顯示出現牛市中期調整,牛市中須持續保持在高持股水平

- 跌破支持位/止蝕位/止賺位沽出法在牛市中未能奏效。除非基本因素出現明顯問題,否則在跌穿這些所謂技術點後沽出,很容易被震走,以明燈收場。即使手上持股表現欠理想,但在牛市中只要給予些耐性,總可在一個相對較高的價位沽出

- 在牛市中想減持以鎖定利潤及控制風險:要盡量保持手頭上的最強勢股、如上段所言,對於手頭上相對弱勢股要給予耐性,即使要沽出也可以等一個較好價錢、最適宜的開刀對象,是手頭上處超買區,惟在組合內的相對走勢屬次強,且基本因素的賣點相對不太強的股票

- 目前仍密切留意買入對象。假若經濟周期有較明確復甦,不少周期股的估值尚有吸引上升空間

51 則留言:

  1. 你好! 看了你的Blog很久了, 獲益良多!
    我非常有興趣想購買美國房產ETF, 看到你買的ITB, 今年已升了70%以上, 但美國樓宇只升20%左右, 所以怕股價太貴不敢追入! 我看到有6種美國房產ETF (IYR, XHB, ITB, ICF, PSR, PKB),但詳細資料卻找不到,請問在哪裏可找到呢?
    另很想知道你對ITB的看法, 可分享嗎? 謝!
    Rita

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    1. 多謝捧場,其實我對美國home builder股的ETF認識不深。去年中的經濟數據確認美國樓市復甦後,在眾多ETF選了ITB只是因它的走勢最佳。我買入時它應該剛上破了自2008年的大圓底頸線阻力;在TA及FA上是有信心的

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    2. 建議你可到google或yahoo的美股報價,且看會不會找到它們的參考資料

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  2. YOU SIR,
    我最近很想买入1036,主要是考虑她的母公司万科会否借壳来香港上市,加上B股资产转为H股的催化剂。但鉴于此股实在如同妖股,十分难 于操作,故此迟迟不敢下手。相信未来大陆房地产还有一定的炒作空间,加上万科始终是大陆房地产的龙头,我现在想请教一下,是否可以把仓内的1171($13买入,$14没有卖出),煤炭股一直都是死气沉沉,上涨空间狭小。把1171换入1036如何呢?希望您可以指教一下。

    RABIT

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    1. 這個可以考慮,況且目前煤炭價格的前景並非太樂觀

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  3. 回覆
    1. You sir 買2314是因為公司回購?

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    2. 對,還有經濟周期見底及以市帳率計股價尚有不俗上升空間也是原因

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  4. You sir 買604是因為炒深圳前海概念? 這會是新興強勢板塊嗎?

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    1. 不是最主要原因,主要是看中剛從母公司落實注資;不過看來買入時機不算好

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  5. yes. 604 has potential, but not the right time

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  6. Dear You Sir,

    感谢之前的提点,我把1171换入1036,可惜贪心过度,没有及时获利,错失良机。

    还想请教的是:如果万科B转H成功,1036会不会失去投资价值呢?我之前的理解错误,以为万科把B股资产转入1036?1036作为海外万科,在香港或者海外又岂能和一众地头蛇竞争呢?

    RABIT

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    1. 1036是有機會作為萬科的香港發展平台

      由於其國內的規模及實力,萬科若在香港發展,相信仍能惹來投資者憧憬的

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  7. HK A/D ratio weakened
    HKD weakened
    In general small stocks were relatively weak
    Seems better play a bit more defensive 1st

    Reserve some cash and wait until potential correction to tell us strong stocks seems a good move

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    1. 注意到這些觀察,但牛市中傾向以個股調配多於提高現金以應對風險

      況且,組合中大部分持股的走勢也對板,沒有沽出的需要。當然,有些持股走勢是較令人失望;但不欲在跌至超賣區時沽出

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  8. 為甚麽選884而不加注3900, 或買1918,2868,832等內房呢?
    - dennis

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    1. 主要是比較同業884的未來增長較快速,且在適合時機上市,降低公司的負債比重

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    2. Thanks, you sir.
      - dennis

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  9. 906, 2380 are interesting
    Both defensive and relatively immune to (or even benefit from) potential correction, supporting recent breakout.
    Any comments?

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    1. Decent idea. I'm relatively more interested in 2380 coz 906 is a packaging manufacturer with revenue relying on key customers. So this kind of stock cannot deserve a too high PE valuation.

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