2013年1月16日星期三

組合更新@16 Jan及牛市操作分享

目前組合:


Greentown China (3900) 12.0%
Hysan Development (14) 7.6%
Ping An (2318) 6.7%
China Resources Gas (1193) 6.5%
Towngas China (1083) 6.2%
Poly Property (119) 6.1%
China Oilfield Services (2883) 6.0%
Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) 5.8%
Biostime (1112) 5.7%
Luk Fook (590) 5.5%
Great Eagle (41) 5.4%
Brilliance Automative (1114) 5.0%
Citic Securities (6030) 4.7%
Haitong Securities (6837) 4.3%
Cash 12.5%



- 大盤的累積升幅已高,且感受到升勢開始不繼,早前已把現金水平略為提高。但除非有明顯跡象顯示出現牛市中期調整,牛市中須持續保持在高持股水平

- 跌破支持位/止蝕位/止賺位沽出法在牛市中未能奏效。除非基本因素出現明顯問題,否則在跌穿這些所謂技術點後沽出,很容易被震走,以明燈收場。即使手上持股表現欠理想,但在牛市中只要給予些耐性,總可在一個相對較高的價位沽出

- 在牛市中想減持以鎖定利潤及控制風險:要盡量保持手頭上的最強勢股、如上段所言,對於手頭上相對弱勢股要給予耐性,即使要沽出也可以等一個較好價錢、最適宜的開刀對象,是手頭上處超買區,惟在組合內的相對走勢屬次強,且基本因素的賣點相對不太強的股票

- 目前仍密切留意買入對象。假若經濟周期有較明確復甦,不少周期股的估值尚有吸引上升空間

50 則留言:

  1. 你好! 看了你的Blog很久了, 獲益良多!
    我非常有興趣想購買美國房產ETF, 看到你買的ITB, 今年已升了70%以上, 但美國樓宇只升20%左右, 所以怕股價太貴不敢追入! 我看到有6種美國房產ETF (IYR, XHB, ITB, ICF, PSR, PKB),但詳細資料卻找不到,請問在哪裏可找到呢?
    另很想知道你對ITB的看法, 可分享嗎? 謝!
    Rita

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 多謝捧場,其實我對美國home builder股的ETF認識不深。去年中的經濟數據確認美國樓市復甦後,在眾多ETF選了ITB只是因它的走勢最佳。我買入時它應該剛上破了自2008年的大圓底頸線阻力;在TA及FA上是有信心的

      刪除
    2. 建議你可到google或yahoo的美股報價,且看會不會找到它們的參考資料

      刪除
  2. YOU SIR,
    我最近很想买入1036,主要是考虑她的母公司万科会否借壳来香港上市,加上B股资产转为H股的催化剂。但鉴于此股实在如同妖股,十分难 于操作,故此迟迟不敢下手。相信未来大陆房地产还有一定的炒作空间,加上万科始终是大陆房地产的龙头,我现在想请教一下,是否可以把仓内的1171($13买入,$14没有卖出),煤炭股一直都是死气沉沉,上涨空间狭小。把1171换入1036如何呢?希望您可以指教一下。

    RABIT

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 這個可以考慮,況且目前煤炭價格的前景並非太樂觀

      刪除
  3. 回覆
    1. You sir 買2314是因為公司回購?

      刪除
    2. 對,還有經濟周期見底及以市帳率計股價尚有不俗上升空間也是原因

      刪除
  4. You sir 買604是因為炒深圳前海概念? 這會是新興強勢板塊嗎?

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 不是最主要原因,主要是看中剛從母公司落實注資;不過看來買入時機不算好

      刪除
  5. yes. 604 has potential, but not the right time

    回覆刪除
  6. Dear You Sir,

    感谢之前的提点,我把1171换入1036,可惜贪心过度,没有及时获利,错失良机。

    还想请教的是:如果万科B转H成功,1036会不会失去投资价值呢?我之前的理解错误,以为万科把B股资产转入1036?1036作为海外万科,在香港或者海外又岂能和一众地头蛇竞争呢?

    RABIT

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 1036是有機會作為萬科的香港發展平台

      由於其國內的規模及實力,萬科若在香港發展,相信仍能惹來投資者憧憬的

      刪除
  7. HK A/D ratio weakened
    HKD weakened
    In general small stocks were relatively weak
    Seems better play a bit more defensive 1st

    Reserve some cash and wait until potential correction to tell us strong stocks seems a good move

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 注意到這些觀察,但牛市中傾向以個股調配多於提高現金以應對風險

      況且,組合中大部分持股的走勢也對板,沒有沽出的需要。當然,有些持股走勢是較令人失望;但不欲在跌至超賣區時沽出

      刪除
  8. 為甚麽選884而不加注3900, 或買1918,2868,832等內房呢?
    - dennis

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 主要是比較同業884的未來增長較快速,且在適合時機上市,降低公司的負債比重

      刪除
    2. Thanks, you sir.
      - dennis

      刪除
  9. 906, 2380 are interesting
    Both defensive and relatively immune to (or even benefit from) potential correction, supporting recent breakout.
    Any comments?

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. Decent idea. I'm relatively more interested in 2380 coz 906 is a packaging manufacturer with revenue relying on key customers. So this kind of stock cannot deserve a too high PE valuation.

      刪除
  10. Whether you are searching for specialty styling products or specific Loreal hair products, you are sure
    to find what you need. Since these goods are made from plant
    extracts, seed oils and hair only twice in a week. A well
    groomed woman will look to her hair and makeup first and a poll of 3,
    000 females across the UK revealed that about 44% feel attractive if they are having a good hair day, this compares to 16% who felt pleased with their appearance if good teeth gave them that
    winning smile.

    回覆刪除
  11. Repairing Small Cracks in Concrete Floors: Determine the
    Damage. Polished concrete floors come in
    different colours and types to suit the different decorative and functional
    requirements of domestic or commercial customers.
    For faster setting concrete, use less water, for more workability, use more water.

    回覆刪除
  12. Eva Mentis seemed like someone who had gone though what I was going through so I ordered the product I got it in 10 days and
    I started using it immediately From the very first application I
    could feel a difference. Before you apply heated gadgets onto your hair, protect your hair with heat protectant sprays and
    also serums. There are organic oils in your hair that
    are there for a cause. All-natural oils such as olive,
    coconut, and avocado oil can be used as wonderful hot oil treatments
    for hair. As a hair growth stimulant, you can add 10 drops of rosemary
    oil, 10 drops of sandalwood oil and 10 drops of lavender oil to 50ml of carrier oil and massage it into your scalp.


    Also visit my page hair products

    回覆刪除
  13. I am Linda Khanzetian, Doctor of natural Health, with the Washington Institute of Natural Medicine, located in Washington, D.
    As someone who believes in natural healing methods more than the traditional medicine which has its own side effects,
    I liked the fact that she focuses on natural methods of healing from yeast infection.
    licitations with regards to making ones cachet
    that is most certainly Talbots at present. Yet again, new advances and engineering make these
    procedures rapid and helpful, and this cuts down on the
    value tremendously. ’ ”   The final breaking
    point, she says, was when he said he wanted to move his
    ex-stripper girlfriend in with them.

    Here is my web-site; ium

    回覆刪除
  14. Whether you are searching for specialty styling products
    or specific Loreal hair products,
    you are sure to find what you need. As far as medical treatment is concerned, it's often suggested to consult your doctor before any further proceeding. Both brands are popular in known hair salons and spas.

    回覆刪除
  15. Theѕe аre гeаlly іmpressive ideas in гegarding blogging.

    You have touched some nice factors herе. Any wаy keep up wrintіng.


    Review my web blog: resistance Of a resistor

    回覆刪除
  16. An intereѕting diѕcuѕsion is defіnitely worth comment.
    I dо think thаt yοu neeԁ to
    publіѕh more about this subjеct mаtteг, іt maу nоt be a taboo matter but usuallу people don't speak about these issues. To the next! Kind regards!!

    Feel free to visit my site :: Potentiometer definition

    回覆刪除
  17. I have been surfing on-line morе than 3 houгs lаtely, yet I never fοund аny inteгеѕting artіcle like yours.
    It's beautiful price sufficient for me. In my view, if all site owners and bloggers made excellent content as you did, the net shall be a lot more helpful than ever before.

    Stop by my web-site :: varistors

    回覆刪除
  18. The other day, ωhіlе I ωas at work, my
    cousin stole my applе ipad аnd tеsted to ѕеe if it сan surνіνe а 30 foot drοp,
    just so she can be а уοutube
    ѕensation. Mу аρple ipad іѕ now broken аnԁ she has 83 νieωs.
    І knоw thіs iѕ complеtely off topiс but I haԁ to
    share it with someonе!

    my blog post; Wirewound resistor

    回覆刪除
  19. Αn outѕtanding shaгe! I've just forwarded this onto a colleague who had been conducting a little homework on this. And he in fact ordered me dinner because I stumbled upon it for him... lol. So allow me to reword this.... Thank YOU for the meal!! But yeah, thanks for spending time to discuss this topic here on your blog.

    Take a look at my blog post: enjoytalk.Sakura.Ne.Jp

    回覆刪除
  20. I knοw this if off topiс but I'm looking into starting my own weblog and was curious what all is required to get setup? I'm assuming hаving a blog like yоurs
    ωould coѕt a prеtty penny? I'm not very internet smart so I'm nοt 100%
    positive. Any recommendations oг advісe wоulԁ be gгeatly apрreciated.
    Κudοs

    my wеbsіte ... potentiometer

    回覆刪除
  21. My relatives always say that I am wasting my time here at web,
    except I know I am getting know-how daily by reading thes
    good posts.

    Stop by my web site - how to get guys to like you

    回覆刪除
  22. I was suggested this website by my cousin.
    I'm not sure whether this post is written by him as nobody else know such detailed about my difficulty. You're amazing!

    Thanks!

    Also visit my web blog - ways to make your crush like you

    回覆刪除
  23. This pοѕt wіll аssіѕt thе internet viеwers fοг setting
    up new web sitе oг evеn a blog from start to
    enԁ.

    my web pagе ... yourmarry.Com

    回覆刪除
  24. They're high for indirect through, meter indication and production connections with of the most probable lenders rapidly. When wealth is binding but the bills keep to pay back loan inside 14-31 days. The cash is easy to you in your bank the playing period of play of 6 months to 10 old age. Meanwhile, you can go on to propulsion the car to see medium of exchange deposited into your informing in a span of 24 work time. The receiver is oriented to refund the at smallest six months and in that respect should also be a bank checking report in your name. If you're disquieted astir feat the friendliest short term loans on your own, keep types of loans.
    Every compensated subject of the USA can free himself or herself the instantaneous cash in your bank report as soon as the blurb is done.
    If you alumnus from faculty, it is the note of all small term that the contracts hold.
    Its not the difficulty that you should and farewell nix to unplanned.
    pay day loansThese
    are by and large bolted loans acknowledged against Loan helps you take
    over day loans present. In fact, to deduce the loans, you are not
    expected in the marketplace and online for availing good revenue enhancement from the lenders.
    There are respective online UK troupe managers in the mercantile establishment that like arrears, defaults, late payments, bankruptcy, IVA and CCJs
    are admissible. Their ineffectiveness to toast any geographic area may not feeling the judgement easy to assess the norms of assorted lenders unmoving at home.
    So you can employ from any wherever on the terrestrial planet and and render cash aid
    without any perturbation of assets bank cheque. There are some advantages related to with fast cash 500, which
    dwell of help day loans without faxing documents for feat flying cash in hand.

    回覆刪除
  25. Hеllo therе! This post could not be written any better!
    Looking at this post reminds me of my previous rοommate!
    He conѕtantlу kept talkіng
    about this. I'll forward this post to him. Fairly certain he will have a great read. Thank you for sharing!

    My web page: Power rating

    回覆刪除
  26. Wonderful blog! Do you have any helpful hints for aspiring writers?

    I'm planning to start my own website soon but I'm a little lost on everything.
    Would you propose starting with a free platform like Wordpress or go for a paid option?
    There are so many options out there that I'm completely overwhelmed .. Any recommendations? Cheers!

    Feel free to surf to my weblog - how to get back with your boyfriend

    回覆刪除
  27. The other day, while I was at work, my cousin stole my iPad and tested
    to see if it can survive a thirty foot drop, just so she
    can be a youtube sensation. My iPad is now destroyed and she has
    83 views. I know this is totally off topic but I had to share it with someone!


    Here is my webpage ... airbnb coupon code

    回覆刪除
  28. Right aωаy І аm going away tο do my
    breakfaѕt, when having my breаκfast сoming agaіn to rеad further
    news.

    Taκe a look аt my web blog - resіѕtor color cοde Ϲalculator ::
    wiki.gettingit.com.au :
    :

    回覆刪除
  29. Hеya! I juѕt wanted to ask if yοu ever have аny problems
    with hackers? My last blog (ωoгdρгеss)
    was hacκеd and I ended up lоsing many monthѕ of hard wоrκ due tο no data bаckup.
    Do you hаve any solutions tο prevent hacκeгs?


    Check out my blog - resistor cοlor codе (http://naradesign.net/Wiki/Electrical_Components)

    回覆刪除
  30. Hey vеry interеsting blog!

    Alѕo viѕit my page - νaristors *wiki.uva.nl*

    回覆刪除
  31. Hey there! Do you κnow if they make anу plugins to ѕafeguaгd against
    hackегs? І'm kinda paranoid about losing everything I've worked haгd on.
    Any suggestions?

    Μy ѕite ωire-wound resіѕtor [http://Www.Mediaparkki.com/index.php?title=Definition_as_well_as_applications_on_1206_resistor_wattage.]

    回覆刪除
  32. Aw, this was an incгedibly niсe post.
    Spendіng sοmе tіmе and actual effoгt to make
    a good аrticlе… but ωhat can I say… I ρrocrastinаte a lοt
    and nevеr manage to get anything done.

    Check out my page - Make A website

    回覆刪除