2013年5月31日星期五

5月份月結:鼓舞的一個月

目前組合:

Petro King (2178) 12.1%
Biostime (1112) 9.3%
Ka Shui (822) 8.4%
Yip's Chemical (408) 8.2%
Suntien (956) 7.4%
FE Consort (35) 6.9%
Towngas China (1083) 6.9%
Truly (732) 6.5%
BJ Water (371) 6.3%
China Oil & Gas (603) 6.3%
Greentown China (3900) 6.0%
Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) 5.8%
JNCEC (579) 5.5%
Sanjiang Chemical (2198) 4.6%

5月份回報:8.5%
Year to date回報:16.0%



5月份的投資表現無容置疑是很令人滿意。其中一個領悟,是除非發生股災,否則不用太在意恆指走勢。說到底,恆指是由金融股、地產股、及能源股為主的板塊組成。很多具前景的行業都未充分反映在恆指內(或總比重不夠),例如燃氣、環保能源、手機零件、醫療、互聯網等等;根本是兩個世界。所以不用太過被恆指的走勢牽動投資情緒,即使跑贏恆指也不應太自滿。

5月份所做的交易不多,大部份的決定也是正確。唯一做錯的沽出龍源電力(916);沽出時的考慮是4月份的營運數據反映增長稍為放緩,而公佈消息後當時股價的反應也不是太好。但結果是太受個別一、兩個月的營運數據影響而錯失一大段升浪。



5月份的投資表現無疑是優秀,但也切記自滿。組合中仍有少部份的股票表現不對板,但因整體組合表現出色,而沒太在意應否把它們沽出並換馬。
 

2013年5月24日星期五

日股大跌



昨天日本股市大插,是因日本債息急升,引來日股大跌。但認為日本目前的量化寛鬆做法,未構成引爆經濟危機的導火線;暫時把昨天定性為震倉多於大跌市的前奏。

個人不喜單單用TA作買賣指標。近日的跌市,不少持有個股有較大幅度回調,但配合FA判斷,暫時未有沽出需要。例如信利(732)在公佈首季業績後股價大挫,但看業績報表公司首季的表現有合理增長,如跟風沽售可能會後悔。華電福新(816)及新天綠色(956)近日的股價顯著回落,但相信潔淨能源是未來大方向,公司的又估值不貴;早前在高位可考慮沽出部分獲利吐現,但在兵荒馬亂下沽售又屬不必要。反之,組合中的綠城中國(3900)基於負債高及國內房地產的政策風險,要提高警覺性。

技術分析是有用指標,但如缺乏對宏觀大勢的判斷及對個股基本面的暸解及信心,往往會被市場牽著走。早前的某些股份或許錯過了趁高獲利機會,但檢視宏觀形勢及個股因素後,於昨天的大跌市沽出持股實在不必要。順帶一提,匯豐的中國PMI5月份初始值跌回50以下,是一個很差的訊號。維持對中國經濟及中港股市的審慎看法,操作上仍只會集中在少數行業板塊。

目前組合:

Petro King (2178) 11.4%
Biostime (1112) 9.5%
Yip's Chemical (408) 9.2%
Ka Shui (822) 7.9%
FE Consort (35) 7.4%
Towngas China (1083) 7.0%
Suntien (956) 6.6%
China Oil & Gas (603) 6.4%
Greentown China (3900) 6.4%
Dow Jones US Home Construction (ITB) 6.3%
Truly (732) 6.0%
Huadian Fuxin (816) 5.8%
Cash 10.2%

2013年5月15日星期三

環球能源新格局


海外財經網站近日引述IEA(International Energy Agency)的分析報告,認為美國對原油開採技術的突破,將為環球能源的供求格局帶來結構性影響。重點如下:


http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/u-oil-production-shock-global-energy-markets-iea-142157377.html?vp=1
The supply shock created by a surge in North American oil production will be as transformative to the market over the next five years as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15, the International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Oil Market Report (MTOMR) released today. The shift will not only cause oil companies to overhaul their global investment strategies, but also reshape the way oil is transported, stored and refined. According to the MTOMR, the effects of continued growth in North American supply – led by US light, tight oil (LTO) and Canadian oil sands – will cascade through the global oil market. Although shale oil development outside North America may not be a large-scale reality during the report’s five-year timeframe, the technologies responsible for the boom will increase production from mature, conventional fields – causing companies to reconsider investments in higher-risk areas. In virtually every other aspect of the market, developing economies are in the driver’s seat. This quarter, for the first time, non-OECD economies will overtake OECD nations in oil demand. At the same time, massive refinery capacity increases in non-OECD economies are accelerating a broad restructuring of the global refining industry and oil trading patterns. European refiners will see no let-up from the squeeze caused by increasing US product exports and the new Asian and Middle Eastern refining titans.
North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world,” said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, who launched the report at the Platts Crude Oil Summit in London. “The good news is that this is helping to ease a market that was relatively tight for several years. The technology that unlocked the bonanza in places like North Dakota can and will be applied elsewhere, potentially leading to a broad reassessment of reserves. But as companies rethink their strategies, and as emerging economies become the leading players in the refining and demand sectors, not everyone will be a winner.”
While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018, or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6 mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d – significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9 mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by 9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.


認為這個趨勢影響深遠,暫時想到的如下:

- 美國轉為能源出口大國,故美股近年的強勢是有其基本因素支持;減少依賴中東亦將轉變國際政治格局
- 中國將加緊開發油氣方面的投資
- 對依賴原油或相關煉油產品的下游企業有正面作用
- 全球通脹壓力舒緩
- 商品價格升勢無以為繼,甚至轉入熊市
- 增加從原油進口
- 燃氣價格和原油具相關性,燃氣價格低企有利下游的燃氣銷售商