2011年11月2日星期三

幸好及早修正

希臘公投事件令恆指低開300多點,但開市的震盪比預期細,且不少二、三線股也有承接力。加上觀察到澳元及歐羅不跌反升,今早趁恆指跌幅出現收窄趨勢時再買入恆大地產(3333)(恆大集中二、三線城市銷售、即使在樓市吹淡風下今年亦錄得理想銷售額、股價表現在內房股中最硬淨,故近日密切留意此股)、修正昨天錯誤,補回南車(1766)(再一次反映應盡量避免沽出強勢股)、及買入三江化工(2198)。收市前在一番猶豫下,買入中國建材(3323);雖不想一天內買入太多股票,但組合內不少持股和大盤無相關性;買入中國建材的目的除了是估值合理外,更想是令組合更受惠大盤的上升。對今早趁大市回調時增持股票感到滿意。

對後市是牛是熊我尚無很大把握,都是看市場訊號摸著石頭過河。投資者近日對中國的風險胃納有所增強,對放寬宏觀經濟政策預期逐漸成形、且在希臘公投的明顯利淡消息衝擊下,今天恆指仍能作出700多點的單日deep V反彈,加深投資者逢低買入的預期;俱是明顯的向牛訊號。

想不到持股水平很快己增至接近70%,在歐洲局勢尚未明朗化下,對把持股水平再提升會較審慎。組合中若干股票顯著跑輸,會考慮因應情況把其砍掉。

目前組合:

Brillance Automotive (1114)   9.6%
Bosideng (3998)   8.5%
CSR (1766)   8.4%
Royale Furniture (1198)   7.4%
CNBM (3323)  6.5%
YGM (375) 5.7%
Evergrande (3333) 5.5%
Sanjiang (2198) 5.5%
Texhong Textile (2678) 5.3%
Good Friend (2398) 5.1%
Cash 32.5%

40 則留言:

  1. 第一:)

    you sir轉身之快令人佩服! 今天大家都看中了2198, 希望運氣在我們這邊:)

    借你地盤為自己做個搬家廣告:)

    今天總算下定決心搬家, 早前還對雅虎存有幻想, 因為很快可以重新發文, 誰知現在還沒搞好. 之前失去了自己地盤, 恰好又忙了一陣, 忙完後人也懶了, 少了留言. 另外的原因是自己早前看得不那麼淡, 擔心自己看錯誤導了大家, 索性收聲了:)

    雖然早前沒有發文, 但我還是保持了寫作的習慣, 晚上看到網友發了郵件給我詢問近況, 覺得不應再等雅虎了, 因此晚上忙了一陣, 進行搬家大計.

    新博客地址如下:

    http://yatfeichan.blogspot.com/

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  2. Actually I think it is a good news that the Euro decides to stay firm, but seems that the Asian market reacts negatively early this morning


    Euro Declines as EU Leaders Withhold Greek Aid

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/euro-declines-as-europe-leaders-withhold-aid-payments-before-greece-s-vote.html

    Greece to Determine Euro Membership in Vote

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-02/greece-to-decide-euro-membership-in-december-vote-as-eu-cuts-aid-payments.html

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  3. 陳sir你好:很久不見,大家都很想念你!說我轉身快實在是不敢當,這方面還是在學習中。陳sir的新blog很靚仔,一定會多上來交流。你提醒了2198須留意原油價格上升的風險

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  4. U sir , 開市時,我沽123, 買了2789!
    希望無做錯
    投機青年

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  5. 投機兄:2789今天升得不錯,你睇中佢有何賣點?

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  6. U sir , 我只是推估下!水泥、玻璃啲建築材料股跟上月低位已紛紛升了一倍,其他跟建築有關股份豈應受惠,小敲搏下上番八月份之位!

    今朝忙到暈,390 沽唔到day high, 若成功沽到,一定買番,又可套單!跟住睇住2333勁升,1211唔郁又想暈!隻2789今朝跌市,已勁上至1.3,一日被壓住,到大市又回上,又是1.3 , 真頂!

    好彩 493 做番注,否則今早真是暈上暈!!

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  7. 同意叮走2398。現在很多股票短綫形態不錯加估值可以,找來一堆股票,1115,1698,1323,1733,3899。YOU兄:給個意見叮走那個?

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  8. U sir , 早晨!
    今早番炒123或459!

    投機青年

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  9. 馬彼得:你提到的股份都頗有趣,但我認識不算深。粗略看我是較喜歡3899、1733及1698的

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  10. 我企你對面,種種跡像中長期似凶非吉。

    經濟鶴人

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  11. yat fai 話八七年股災是股災!

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  12. Bull market already come. 32000 is expected in the first phrase.

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  13. you sir, 我們疑似無端端被人製造矛盾, 令我感到很無奈.

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  14. 經濟鶴人、匿名:我對前景並不太悲觀,不過現在大喊32000 Go!Go!Go!絶對言之尚早,恆指先收復21500才算罷!

    yfchan: never mind, take it easy ^^

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  15. 上午的市底其實不差,但留意到美匯指數略為企穩,所以暫時還是按兵不動,暫不選擇加碼

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