2011年11月25日星期五

出擊對象

經大半個月的下跌及今天的反彈後,觀察以下板塊及個股相對強勢及有動力:

中資金融股:憧憬銀根略為放鬆
電信設備股:對3G手機及3G網絡升級的憧憬
內房股: 雖然市場一面倒看淡國內房地產,但這板塊目前仍是炒range;畢竟長遠而言,國內房地產在整固後,資金雄厚的上市內房股是可受惠汰弱留強的
水泥股:部分受是受內房股帶動
燃氣股:防守力足夠
國內發電股:悄悄起革命,受夠防守性及憧憬加電價驅動
高檔汽車及相關分銷股

個股方面,從事貿易的利豐(494)、冷凍劑化工的東岳(189)、及開發新能源汽車的比亞迪(1211)俱是值得留意的對象

反之,早前廣被看好的國內消費股、本港零售股及澳門股的動力顯著減弱;需要加以注意

今天見市況略為回穩,先後買入590、939及加碼1114。但事後回看,在市況尚未進入非常超賣下投入這個金額是較進取些。下午減持些3998,雖然目前估值相當吸引,但整個國內消費板塊失去動力,尤其是其他男士服裝公司的股價走勢更是疲弱,須提高警覺。目前市況值搏率有限,不宜再大幅加注;反之若零售股的表現進一步走軟的話,應予以修正。

目前組合:


CSR (1766)




10.1%
YGM (375)8.9%
Brilliance Automotive (1114)8.5%
CCB (939)6.2%
Bosideng (3998)5.1%
Luk Fook (590)4.8%
Cash56.5%

29 則留言:

  1. U sir , 多謝提點!你這篇文章好像為小弟而寫! thanks!

    投機青年

    回覆刪除
  2. 渣打研究將周生生<00116.HK>及六福<00590.HK>評級由「跑贏大市」降至「與大市同步」,反映珠寶需求逐步溫和放緩,目標價分別調低至22.57元及34.64元,相當於2012年預測市盈率12倍及14倍。

    該行渠道得悉,在「黃金周」假期後,眾多珠寶、手錶零售商銷售增長勢頭減慢。渣打較看好六福本港市場份額持續上升、資產負債相對穩健及資本需求較低。(

    回覆刪除
  3. U sir , 等等先,慢慢 cut , 116 n 398 上升中,或許 590 晏啲的價位會好啲!

    投機青年

    回覆刪除
  4. 投機兄: 多謝支持,今次算係走得快好世界,本港零售股已顯著轉弱

    回覆刪除
  5. Loss 10k this week, help

    回覆刪除
  6. think should hold 939.
    116 should not be too bad, esp long-term
    agree that property sector 汰弱留強, 688 seems a good choice
    agree 高檔汽車sector, any suggested numbers?
    1766 & 1186 seems undervalued, can be more speculative to lure some return

    回覆刪除
  7. 同意內房股汰弱留強 (我早前一篇文中也提到),所以如果撈底, 我都會偏向撈 688 或 1109 等龍頭股.

    另外零售股和澳門股真的很弱, 反而一些平到嘔的工業股更有睇頭 :D

    又一隻千年衰股返身中, 思捷 330 .....

    回覆刪除
  8. kevin: 939的走勢算是相對較佳了、高檔汽車股方面,我是持有華晨、內房股我較留意3333及81,因三、四線城市受政策影響很少及估值很低、鐵路股其實不算很穩,我應減持1766

    達人兄:內房股我較留意3333及81,因三、四線城市受政策影響很少及估值很低、工業股我只睇中669,你留意到什麼好東西?

    回覆刪除
  9. 又發現一超值股可留意:匯銀

    回覆刪除
  10. 本人將往外遊,相信12月初才能發博文和大家再交流;希望到時市況會有較佳的發展。短線的展望仍是審慎,但若在現水平再進一步明顯下跌的話,會視之為吸納的機會。組合中的3998及375即將公佈中期業績,即使外遊途中仍要多加留意

    回覆刪除
  11. 玩得開心D呢,可能你回港時,恆子己在20000点上.

    回覆刪除
  12. Hi You Sir,

    Have a nice trip!! ^^

    -- Vagabond

    回覆刪除
  13. Thanks for your blessings.

    The news flow are not all on the negative side. The authorities may be working behind the scene to sort out a solution. I hold my viewpoint that the current market development is similiar to that in late 08 to early 09.

    Asia Stocks, U.S. Futures Rally on Italy

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-11-28/asian-stocks-u-s-futures-gain-on-imf-italy-loan-report-euro-strengthens.html

    回覆刪除
  14. But then why u cut loassume stocks last week?
    Jaymen

    回覆刪除
  15. Jaymen,

    I think my cash level at 50% to 60% fairly represents my cautious but not totally pessimistic view towards the market.

    Last week I should only had two sold action. Firstly I reduced some 3998 because I regretted buying too aggressively in the morning. Hence, this was some fine-tuning through reducing some other shares. Secondly, I cut loss 590 because its relatively price performance is extra-ordinary weak, cut loss under that circumstance is reasonable to prevent extending your loss.

    回覆刪除
  16. 六福(00590)公布截至9月底止中期業績,純利同比大增1.25倍,至7.19億元,每股盈利1.33元,按年增1.04倍,中期股息每股派0.53元,同比升1.03倍

    回覆刪除
  17. why no update for so long ???

    Big Ox

    回覆刪除
  18. You Sir 去了旅行, 不過應該已回來了 ^-^

    回覆刪除
  19. hi you sir
    1211 is a cup with a handle pattern, isnt it?
    i agree it is good

    回覆刪除
  20. hi frankie: a cup with handle pattern has not yet emerged in BYD. Nonetheless, my intuition suggests the Counter has decent turnaround potential, particularly given its visionary management. I would treat it as speculative turnaround play.

    回覆刪除