2012年6月1日星期五

5月份月結:輸少當贏

目前組合:


Guotai Junan (1788) 8.4%
Towngas China (1083) 8.3%
GOCO (81) 8.0%
R&F Properties (2777) 7.9%
AAC Technology (2018) 7.6%
Shimao Property (813) 7.3%
TCL Multimedia (1070) 7.2%
BOCHK (2388) 6.6%
Cash 38.7%

5月份回報:-6.5%
年初至今回報:3.8%

5月份投資回報強差人意,唯一慶幸的是year to date投資回報可轉為跑贏大盤。回顧5月份,有不少值得檢討及分享的地方:


- 5月初恆指單日裂口跌數百點後,已感到市況不對勁。但因覺得裂口低開數百點後才沽貨好像有點遲,加上恆指RSI在相對超賣水平;抱著等反彈才減持的心態,結果5月初的減持行動未夠進取。可見除非是很極端的水平,否則超買或超賣不應是不採取行動的藉口;市旺時可以超買再超買,反之亦然

- 5月份買入好些穩定消費股及高息股。但效果強差人意,反而拖累組合回報。保持組合回報不致太差的,出乎意料是被視為政策風險較高的內房股。除了個股因素外,也是食了穩定消費股及高息股可抗跌這概念的水尾

- 買入穩定性消費股時,旺旺(151)曾是我積極考慮的對象,但被該股近30倍的PE值嚇走。反之,買入了當時TA仍不錯、估值很便宜及往績良好的中糧包裝(906);現時回看明顯地我是做錯決定。中糧包裝受王老吉的官司拖累而走勢轉弱,可算是有些欠運。我明白旺旺本身具品牌地位,可值較高溢價,但是否代表可值近30倍PE呢?是否又代表選股時可以完全不考慮估值呢?

- 在熊市中持有強股並不是應對的好方法。即使是最強股,在洗倉的最後階段也不免會被波及。持有強股應對熊市往往是在市場最恐慌的階段被震走。我近月對長城汽車(2333)的操作很燈,便是其中的負面教材。除了保持高現金比率外,把握機會趁反彈高位減持個股也是熊市應對之法。(之前有好些股票升至較高水平時也考慮獲利,但無執行是把沽出價set 得較高,其實在熊市中不應太進取)

今早見中國公佈差勁的PMI後,市場反應不跌反升,便再買入南車(1766);目前看來這是一個失敗的買入。在熊市中還是不應太冒進,見一、兩個訊號好轉便買入;尤其是本身已有一定持股時。

對6月後市展望其實無甚把握,要視乎宏觀事態發展。恆指目前雖很超賣及估值便宜;但又未至於熊市底部很低殘的那一種。經5月的暴跌後,6月恆指是有機會企穩;但以以往熊市走勢pattern看,直插至16000也是有可能,尤其是不市場少參與者寄望6月會有反彈。現階段會再適量提高現金水平。以股市對經濟的前膽性看,大盤跌至現水平也未有一個似樣反彈,大家要有心理準備未來半年的經濟環境會是嚴峻。

68 則留言:

  1. 回覆
    1. 始終鐵路板塊的整體動力仍是不俗

      是前買賣的價格不應影響這一刻的決定

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    2. unfortunately seems that I made a wrong trade. in bear market we need to stay calm and avoid to buy based on just a slight sentimental improvement

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  2. You Sir, 絶對回報為正數才是重要. 不少網友今年已經嘔突!

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    1. 絶對回報為正數才是重要 x10

      我已嘔突, 好慘 T___T

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  3. The German lady is under pressure...

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-05-31/merkel-s-isolation-deepens-as-draghi-criticzes-strategy.html

    Merkel’s Isolation Deepens as Draghi Criticizes Strategy

    German Chancellor Angela Merkel was besieged by critics for letting the euro crisis smolder, with the leaders of Italy and the European Central Bank demanding bolder steps to stabilize the 17-nation economy.

    Italian Prime Minister Mario Monti and ECB President Mario Draghi pushed Germany to give up its opposition to direct euro- area aid for struggling banks. Monti further antagonized Germany by urging a roadmap to common borrowing.

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  4. 國指形成2星期上升通道,因是急跌後形成,擔心跌穿
    恒指跌穿2星期區間(急跌後形成)後仍受制
    留意HCM2<9250(跌穿上升通道,現9440)
    留意HIM2<18250(再跌穿前底,現18400)

    港、歐、美股市近跌穿支持位,穿位要追沽

    SPX跌穿3星期上升通道後反彈,但仍受制sma10,留意跌穿1300
    NDQ受制sma10
    DJI受制sma10,留意跌穿12300
    DAX,留意跌穿3星期橫行區6210-6450
    CAC,留意跌穿3星期上升通道底2990
    UKX,留意跌穿3星期上升通道底5260
    油,銅續弱
    歐元,澳元續弱,美元續強
    Spain 10YR 6.56%

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    1. 只可說,之前立場已轉趨審慎,但原來還不夠審慎

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  5. YOU Sir
    不知不覺,375又跌破$17,還有跟進這隻呢??

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    1. 目前整個本港零售板塊的表現都很差,暫不宜買入

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  6. 在跌市中成長,共勉之^^

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  7. 每次輸$都係一種經驗,大家繼續努力!

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  8. 375 acquired Acquascutum. The business doesn't look so optimistic. Prefer to wait for a hard bargain.
    The market is still sluggish and dangerous. It is hard to tell when the US economy will rebound, We need to look at the unemployment rate and the household income. These two fundamental figures will tell us whether the retail market can sustain growht and hence the ripple effect can be magnified to the whole economy.
    Short term QE measures will not solve the problem. We all know all. So any short term involvement in the stock market is just speculation rather than "professional analysis". No more day dreaming!

    The European market is even worse than the US. We are just speculating on some persons'decisions. How could we predict the behaviour of those persons we don't really understand? It is again very dangerous. We can't even predict our government officials' behaviours! e.g. housing policy, currency policy...

    China is our turbo engine. But it seems that there are a lot of internal problems over there. Some very senior officials were under investigation. Any internal cues?

    Dr YOU,
    any enlightenment?

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    1. As far as I understand, the whole Acquascutum business was still loss making. So there's no sense for YGM to acquire the whole Acquascutum brand.

      No doubt the near term macro economy outlook is challenging. But when the HSI falls to a very attractive level, say near 1x PB or 8 - 9x PER, it represents an attractive long term investment opportunity as the negatives have been factored. So we should bear some hope despite being cautious in the near term.

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  9. You sir
    可否評論623,最近非常弱勢有什麼原因,謝謝!

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    1. 雖則中視金橋的股息率高及每股淨現金達2元;但其廣告包銷業務始終受經濟周影響,今年盈利倒退並不出奇。公司本身的營運是不俗,但以去年跌市的經驗看,在熊市期間不會有特別強防守力

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  10. 回顧上周的經驗,可以說是被大市fake了

    上周中港股市的表現相對還算可以,且個別板塊及股份有不錯的反彈;使我起了對大盤中短線反彈的憧憬。誰知周五歐洲及美國一系列很差的經濟數據推低外圍股市,推倒了短線反彈的憧憬。其實這種情況在熊市中經常出現

    在熊市中保留部份持股搏反彈也無不可。問題是我周五的持股比率己達60%以上,在熊市中已算很足夠。周五見中國公佈欠佳的PMI後,市場不跌反升,便買入1766;現時回看在心態上是有點草率及冒進

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  11. 回覆
    1. this stock is so resilient, sorry that I made a wrong sell decision

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  12. 上周初組合其實有很好的表現,但經今天的暴跌又打回原形:教訓是在熊市中有反彈要見好就收、此外,見股價表現勢色不對便要從速撤退;今天再進一步減持明顯是來得晚了。仍要在錯誤中吸收經驗

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    1. 上週初的反彈,我認為完全不及格,日線圖看到由 5月中開始指數只是在低位橫行, 等埋條 10天線下來, 而不是反彈上去相迎。週線圖完全看不到任何反彈。

      我已開始檢討熊市博反彈是否真的化算, 可能還是跟隨大盤走勢去操作較好, 向下的走勢就算不做淡也要大手減持, 持現金觀望。

      不過根據以往經驗,當博兩次反彈都落空,開始連自己都想放棄時, 真的大反彈就會來臨, 希望今次中 ^^

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    2. 上周頭兩天的組合表現很好,但我卻憧憬中線市況轉穩而沒有獲利,令我頗為後悔

      我認為熊市中仍要保留保份持股,一來熊市中仍有少數股份可跑出、二來若完全錯失熊市反彈,心理壓力也會很大,正如我去年10月的那次

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  13. 中線仍弱,但的確有反彈potential
    SPX,NDQ、CAC日線呈背馳
    美匯跌穿10天線/歐羅升穿10天線
    油價周線超賣,Brent應可於100元先作反彈

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  14. should be good news

    http://www.cnbc.com/id/47684988

    Germany Is Open to Pooling Debt, With Conditions

    Pressed by a banking crisis and turmoil in the markets, Germany has indicated that it is prepared to accept a grand bargain that would provide greater support for its most indebted euro zone partners in exchange for more centralized control over government spending in Europe.

    The German chancellor, Angela Merkel, said that finding the way to “more Europe, not less” was the next task for Europe’s leaders. “The world wants to know how we expect the political union to complement the currency union,” Ms. Merkel said at a news conference here Monday with José Manuel Barroso, the president of the European Commission. “We have to find an answer in the foreseeable future.”

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    1. 出歐羅債券,會對德國的財政構成壓力;反之,法國股市的相對表現開始改善;值得留意

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  15. 《神州民企》世房首5月合約銷售164﹒7億人幣,已達標54%

      《經濟通通訊社5日專訊》世茂房地產(00813)公布最新營運數據,截至今5月底止
    ,首五個月總合約銷售超過164﹒7億元(人民幣.下同),總銷售面積逾141﹒6萬平方
    米,平均售價為每平方米1﹒16萬元,並已完成今年銷售目標54%。
      公司指,單計5月份,月銷售創新高,按年大幅增加超過1倍,至51﹒12億元,合約銷
    售面積為46﹒37萬平方米。(os)

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  16. 回覆
    1. 住建部堅持調控樓市,今日大陸內房都微跌,反而港股那邊升,奇怪。。。。。

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    2. 我認為中央目前只是口頭上的強硬,事實上不少地方政府已有政策上的鬆動,且樓市近日的交投已略為回升

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  17. http://hk.apple.nextmedia.com/financeestate/art/20120606/16400991

    立論:十年一遇入市時機快到

    2007年至今的股市周期,似乎在重覆着1997至2002年的舊路,除非2013年再來多一次「沙士級」經濟打擊,否則,我們頂多等多三個多月,就會見到股市另一個十年一遇的大好入貨時機。

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    1. 吓? 我好懷疑....當年中國經濟急速起飛, 但下一個五年我認為中國增長不會重上 9-10%, 反而有機會回落進一步回落, 不能下下攞返之前黎比較

      好多人認為 2012 年會 copy 2009 年走勢, 但依家睇返明顯是錯的 :(

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    2. 股市估是一個鐘擺、始終會有一個回復樂觀估值的時候

      要回到樂觀的估值,快則要一、兩年;慢則要三、四年

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  18. I think he is too optimistic and too speculating. Short term rebound may be possible. But how can we make sure the Euro issue can be resolved in a proper way? That over-spending will drag down the market. I think China becomes aware of the disadvantages of distorting the market too much. Relaxation of money is a good incentive but it is diffucult to control its outcome. e.g. gold does not generate any real return in terms of productivity, but oil and coal could. However, the price of these commodities are going in a wrong direction. Up till now, I do not see any sustainable development to boost productivity. All I have seen is just too much speculation in the Market. I agree with Uncle Four's point of view.

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    1. The best time for long term investing is when the macro economy outlook is poor and everybody is pessimistic. I'm not saying we're in that point but probably that is not very far away. My rough guage is that excellent bottom fishing opportunity emerges when HSI falls to 16,000 to 17,000.

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    2. 我都同意 16000-17000 應是中期底部, 當大市估值 "嚴重低殘" 時出手買貨放中長線應該無錯, 但我認為估值返上去 "無咁低殘" 的位時可以考慮沽出或減持

      如果認為像過去一樣, 估值可以由 "嚴重低殘" 升返上 "過份樂觀", 我認為可能性微乎其微 ^^

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    3. 今年恆指升至22000見明顯阻力,反映恆指目前的合理PE值只不過是在11至12倍水平

      要展開下一個大牛市,中國需找到一個新增長引擎,例如切實啟動內需市場

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    4. 無錯, 我相信長線中國不死, 但中短期內的轉型過程困難, 之前狂牛市當中存在的不少 "水份", 會在這個轉型過程中渣乾 (例如產能過剩, 壞帳, 假數等問題)

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  19. 留意好些宏觀指標轉穩:歐羅轉強、西班牙債息下跌、原油及黃金價格回升、以及港匯轉強

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  20. 257 strong in TA

    Industry: Attractive given government’s focus on WTE (also a viable option for selective stimulus policies)
    Company: Consider the 1) leading position, strong track record and high emission standard of CEB and 2) potential support from China Everbright Group are key competitive edges
    Risks: Earnings visibility depends largely on (the announcement of) new projects

    Any comment?

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    1. I have no bad comment on this Company. Other than valuation, one investment risk is that its business depends on relation to the government.

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  21. good news

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-06-06/merkel-advisory-panel-reworks-debt-sharing-plan-to-win-support.html

    Merkel Allies Signal Progress On Accepting Fund To Pool Debts

    Opposition in German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government to debt sharing to counter the euro region financial crisis is weakening, two of her allies said.
    “I see some movement in the government” toward a proposed debt-redemption fund, Lars Feld, a professor of economics at Freiburg University and a member of Merkel’s council of economic advisers, said in an interview in Berlin today.

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  22. 回覆
    1. 目前市況,已盡量減少買賣次數

      昨天買入691後,見走勢不對路,幸好果斷沽出;水泥股這板塊還是未能樂觀

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  23. 中國人民銀行決定,自2012年6月8日起下調金融機構人民幣存貸款基準利率。金融機構一年期存款基準利率下調0.25個百分點,一年期貸款基準利率下調0.25個百分點;其他各檔次存貸款基準利率及個人住房公積金存貸款利率相應調整。

      自同日起:(1)將金融機構存款利率浮動區間的上限調整為基準利率的1.1倍;(2)將金融機構貸款利率浮動區間的下限調整為基準利率的0.8倍。

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    1. Too bad i sold 3339 already

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    2. 奇怪國內股市無春江鴨, 不過今晚睇新聞, D 專家話大陸突然減息, 即是中國硬着陸風險增加。究竟市場點樣解讀這次減息都是未知之數。

      不過如果大家一致看淡, 而減息後股市又再跌, 反而提供長線買入機會, 因為既然減得一次息, 有可能減息週期已經展開。

      第一次放水未必立即見效, 放多幾次自然會有效 ^^

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    3. unknown:除3339以外,市場上相信還有不少更好的選擇

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    4. 今次加息屬不對稱,對內銀股的淨息差利淡

      以往經驗,減息周期展開初期,對股市影響都是先升後跌;因開始減息代表經濟周期轉弱

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  24. U sir, 我放了即升,𨍭1818即跌,剛又轉1088 :(

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  25. 反彈是否完結了呢? 歐元、黃金、白銀、期油又抽番,大陸市場對減息無半點牛現象,重磅股中移動斯人獨憔悴,西班牙10年債息依然係6厘樓上的危險水平。

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    1. 機會是大的,股市對減息的好消息無反應;且恆指在20天線前連續出現兩支陰燭,今天更是穿頭破腳,國指的走勢更差

      這是把813獲利的其中理由

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  26. I agree with 投資達人.
    Seems No.4 is doing the right thing. Await for a hard bargain.
    Dr YOU,
    Please share your views on 2828, 2823 and 2844? How do they compare with each other?

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    1. I'm not very interested in index tracker fund, esp. China enterprise related indicies in the moment. China Enterprise Indices fund largely composed of financial stocks, which face structural problem in additional to a slowing broad economy.

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