海外財經網站近日引述IEA(International Energy Agency)的分析報告,認為美國對原油開採技術的突破,將為環球能源的供求格局帶來結構性影響。重點如下:
http://finance.yahoo.com/blogs/daily-ticker/u-oil-production-shock-global-energy-markets-iea-142157377.html?vp=1
The supply shock created by a surge in North American oil
production will be as transformative to the market over the next five
years as was the rise of Chinese demand over the last 15, the
International Energy Agency (IEA) said in its annual Medium-Term Oil
Market Report (MTOMR) released today. The shift will not only
cause oil companies to overhaul their global investment strategies, but
also reshape the way oil is transported, stored and refined. According to the MTOMR, the effects of continued growth in North
American supply – led by US light, tight oil (LTO) and Canadian oil
sands – will cascade through the global oil market. Although shale oil
development outside North America may not be a large-scale reality
during the report’s five-year timeframe, the technologies responsible
for the boom will increase production from mature, conventional fields –
causing companies to reconsider investments in higher-risk areas. In virtually every other aspect of
the market, developing economies are in the driver’s seat. This
quarter, for the first time, non-OECD economies will overtake OECD
nations in oil demand. At the same time, massive refinery capacity
increases in non-OECD economies are accelerating a broad restructuring
of the global refining industry and oil trading patterns. European
refiners will see no let-up from the squeeze caused by increasing US
product exports and the new Asian and Middle Eastern refining titans.
“North America has set off a supply shock that is sending ripples throughout the world,”
said IEA Executive Director Maria van der Hoeven, who launched the
report at the Platts Crude Oil Summit in London. “The good news is that
this is helping to ease a market that was relatively tight for several
years. The technology that unlocked the bonanza in places like North
Dakota can and will be applied elsewhere, potentially leading to a broad
reassessment of reserves. But as companies rethink their strategies,
and as emerging economies become the leading players in the refining and
demand sectors, not everyone will be a winner.”
While geopolitical risks abound, market fundamentals suggest a more
comfortable global oil supply/demand balance over the next five years. The MTOMR forecasts North American supply to grow by 3.9 million barrels per day (mb/d) from 2012 to 2018,
or nearly two-thirds of total forecast non-OPEC supply growth of 6
mb/d. World liquid production capacity is expected to grow by 8.4 mb/d –
significantly faster than demand – which is projected to expand by 6.9
mb/d. Global refining capacity will post even steeper growth, surging by
9.5 mb/d, led by China and the Middle East.
認為這個趨勢影響深遠,暫時想到的如下:
- 美國轉為能源出口大國,故美股近年的強勢是有其基本因素支持;減少依賴中東亦將轉變國際政治格局
- 中國將加緊開發油氣方面的投資
- 對依賴原油或相關煉油產品的下游企業有正面作用
- 全球通脹壓力舒緩
- 商品價格升勢無以為繼,甚至轉入熊市
- 增加從原油進口
- 燃氣價格和原油具相關性,燃氣價格低企有利下游的燃氣銷售商