2018年3月26日星期一

牛市備受考驗

目前組合:

Amazon (AMZN US) 16.8%
Nvidia (NVDA US) 9.5%
Netflix (NFLX US) 8.7%
舜宇光學 (2382 HK) 12.4%
銀河娛樂 (27 HK) 9.4%
Splunk (SPLK US) 7.0%
Cash 36.2%

組合Year to date 回報:4.7%
標普500Year to date 回報:-3.2%
恆指Year to date 回報:2.1%

- 今輪環球大跌市,突顯本身集中高增長、動力及領導型股份投資風格(i.e. Can Slim + momentum trading)的優點。在今輪因加息及貿易戰引發的大型調整,投資組合表現顯著跑贏大市,直到上周四及周五,才感受到今輪跌市的痛楚。對我而言,追隨強股是較有效的控制風險手法

- 此投資風格不是沒有缺點,一旦大市轉牛為熊,此種投資風格便要蒙受比大市跌幅更慘重的損失。過往投資操作不足之處便是這一點。目前大市便進入測試牛市能否持續的考驗期

- 之前已相繼沽出好些欠缺足夠動力的股份。本身的投資操作判斷,看重個股多於大盤整體走勢。即使感受到宏觀氣氛有些不對勁,但組合內的強股大都顯著跑贏大市,故無大規模減持的意慾。到上周未這些強勢股才見較顯著的跌幅,組合中的Amazon、Splunk及Netflix上周五及周四才跌破20天線,實在不用馬後炮檢討為何早些不沽出。現檢討持有這樣的強股並碰上這個規模的調整,可以20天線作為減持的準則

- 執筆之時,傳出中美兩國願意就貿易問題講數,恆指倒升200多點,道指期貨也升200多點。我並無水晶球,只能說今輪環球跌市並不尋常,不能太快斷言脫離危險期

- 以今天港股反彈的表現看,互聯網及資訊科技、醫藥、水泥、石化、內銀再加AIA友邦的反彈動力較強,其餘板塊大多乏善可陳

15 則留言:

  1. You sir have you consider posting facebook so your fans including myself can like and share your articles ^^

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    1. Thanks for support and I will consider. The problem is not totally time commitment, but I am not sure of what FB content to be added. Any feedback is welcome

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  2. Your articles every second day are the most valuable content. perhaps you may become like a fund manager once you have got built a client base on facebook. lol

    I have been reading you, cup sir and chan sir since 2012. ^ ^

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    1. Same here since 2012, please keep update. Your investment mindset inspire my thoughts.

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  3. 美股今晚目前的指數微升,但很多動力股先升後倒跌,升幅由金融、能源及消費等舊經濟股份帶動,美股尚未脫離危險期

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    1. Reuters: Nvidia suspends self-driving test program after Uber fatality

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  5. 美股走勢極差, 今晚YOU SIR會再減持股票嗎?

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    1. IBD咁講:

      Both indexes' price ranges Tuesday exceeded the prior day's — a bearish behavior that's known as an outside day. Even the more sedate Dow Jones industrial average suffered an outside day, down 1.4%. The small-cap Russell 2000 lost nearly 2%.

      Not only did stocks fail to build on Monday's strong gains, but selling returned in broad form. Declining stocks led advancers by nearly 11-to-5 on the NYSE and by about 10-to-3 on the Nasdaq. Volume eased on the Nasdaq and was higher on the NYSE.

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    2. 我比較留意強勢股的形態,美股餘下的幾隻超強勢股,如MTCH,PAYC及ADBE等,昨晚均出現穿頭破腳的利淡形態,領導股出現此訊號相當利淡

      絶對有需要考慮繼續減持

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    3. 觀乎恆指、納指及標普的長線周線圖,均剛跌破其上升走勢,進入牛轉熊的戒備狀態

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    1. https://seekingalpha.com/news/3342157-axios-trump-concerned-amazon-facebook

      Axios: Trump more concerned with Amazon than Facebook

      Axios sources say President Trump isn’t concerned with regulating Facebook (NASDAQ:FB) because he’s focused on Amazon (NASDAQ:AMZN).

      Source: “He’s obsessed with Amazon. Obsessed.”

      Trump has talked about changing the tech giant’s tax treatment and wonders if there’s “any way to go after Amazon with antitrust or competition law.”

      Trump thinks Amazon has gotten preferential treatment from the U.S. Postal Service, though the post office does make a lot of money off of Amazon.

      Trump also doesn't like Amazon founder Jeff Bezos for his ownership of The Washington Post.

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