2018年5月31日星期四

更近@ 31 May:暫且重回正軌

目前組合:

舜宇光學 (2382 HK) 11.6%
Netflix (NFLX US) 10.5%
藥明生物 (2269 HK) 9.9%
Amazon (AMZN US) 9.7%
Health Equity (HQY US) 9.0%
Microsoft (MFST US) 9.0%
Nvidia (NVDA US) 8.9%
Boeing (BA US) 8.2%
Disney (DIS US) 7.4%
新奧能源 (2688 HK) 7.3%
Cash 8.4%

組合Year to date 回報:1.8%
標普500Year to date 回報:1.9%
恆指Year to date 回報:1.8%

- 投資組合自5月初Match(MTCH)被洗倉的意外中恢復過來,拉近和大盤指數的差距。近週投資組合表現算是重回正軌,除非有重大宏觀事件出現,否則有信心投資組合快將又領前指數

- 對港股的看法審慎,內房及內銀兩大對經濟周期敏感板塊跌勢加劇,加上有消息指有內房股發債遇阻,響起了宏觀的警號。惟目前港股市況尚未全面轉差,部份板塊如教育、醫藥、燃氣及電力等仍有作資金避難所的吸引力

- 美股的走勢較想像中好;即使投資者再度關注歐羅區的貨幣前景,但美股的走勢暫無受太大影響,尤其是科技股更回復強勢。美股的佈局仍以持有Netflix, Amazon, Nvidia等的龍頭科技股,再加一些傳統企業作為佈局

21 則留言:

  1. 沽出HQY是因有分析師調低評級,加上6月初公佈業績及短期累積升幅高,有獲利回吐風險。至於買入SalesForce(CRM)則因剛公佈業績,市場有正面反應,較為有保證

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    1. yes, cloud and big data are major themes in the technology software field

      ADBE, RP, SPLK, etc are also in my watchlist

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  2. recommended reading, easy to read and present a good case for a still bullish outlook on Amazon

    https://seekingalpha.com/article/4179126-amazons-next-leg-growth-come-high-margin-categories

    Amazon's Next Leg Of Growth Could Come From High-Margin Categories

    - Growth of high-margin businesses could provide upside to Amazon's profitability.

    - Amazon is becoming more aggressive in using Whole Foods to capture share in the massive groceries market.

    - An increase in USPS shipping rates is a potential near-term risk, but does not appear likely.

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    1. Are you asking about Spotify (SPOT)?

      I have no insight on it but its price trend has momentum to go upwards. Do you have any insight for sharing?

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    2. SHOP (NYSE)

      https://www.fool.ca/2018/06/04/2-reasons-shopify-inc-stock-could-continue-to-soar/

      仲有SERVICENOW(NOW), 雖然有林林總總的雲計算公司上市, 外行人好難分析邊隻最好, 但從其盈利增長及走勢, 實在值得留意。

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    3. 其實可以考慮SKYY (Cloud Computing ETF),一網打晒,這些廣泛的ETF選擇也是投資美股的好處

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    4. 之前您提到的RP(RealPage)我有留意,但最終沒有買入。雖然表面數字很好,但seeking alpha有作者曾提出以下的質疑:

      https://seekingalpha.com/article/4163973-realpage-much-risk

      It's unprofitable: revenue growth doesn't translate into earnings growth; margins are razor thin; it may not enjoy pricing power; service has very little room for error before refunds kick in.

      It has diluted its shareholders over 200% over the past decade.

      Goodwill makes up half of its capital structure.

      Despite all this, it rewards its executives handsomely.

      Finally, it doesn't come close to beating the risk free rate.

      此外,layman地講,公司的規模及市值少,在房地產和物業管理這個niche subsegment可能造得很好,但需面對行業龍頭進入競爭的風險

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    5. 所以股價冇再突破。謝謝你的資料。

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    6. 之前兄台推介的HQY 遲業績後仍繼續升,但我早沽了

      但回看這個決定沒錯,近期美股公佈業績後,因獲利回吐,仍是跌多升少

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    7. 我仲持有HQY及OLLI, 哈哈, 打算穿10天線才沽。
      反而ISRG, SHOP, NOW的勢感覺會持續破頂。

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    8. ISRG的機械人手術技術應該好有前景,不過自己定力唔夠,好幾次都被震走

      https://seekingalpha.com/news/3360979-intuitive-surgical-announces-da-vinci-sp-surgical-system

      Intuitive Surgical announces the da Vinci SP surgical system

      Intuitive Surgical (NASDAQ:ISRG) announces a new FDA clearance for the da Vinci SP surgical system for urologic surgical procedures that are appropriate for a single port approach.

      The da Vinci SP system provides with robotic-assisted technology designed for deep and narrow access to tissue in the body. The da Vinci SP system includes three, multi-jointed, wristed instruments and the first da Vinci fully wristed 3D HD camera.

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  4. 美市最近出左隻AI/Big Data主題基金 AIQ

    AIQ identifies companies involved in the use of artificial intelligence to analyze big data, whether for their own operations, as a service to other companies, or through the production of related hardware.

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    1. 不過我嫌佢不夠 pure play

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    2. 已經好specialized了,您想pure play成點呢?

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    3. 咁又係,買得ETF又要pure play有d矛盾

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    1. 您也買了883:D

      上次您提及的幾隻醫藥股, 我買了1530. 沒有跟您買2269實在失策:( 2269突破時的cup with handle圖形非常漂亮, 我其實不應該想太多的.

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    2. 藥明做生物藥研發的外判服務,增長爆發點在於進入研發後期R&D開支的爆發性增長。但至於是否值百倍PE估值則見仁見智,也須要一點想像力

      三生的估值相對較低,也是因其藥品portfolio的前景和競爭力有關,但公司又遠未至最低檔次的層次。每個人的投資風格及風險胃納不同,陳sir也不需太後悔沒有買入超出自己risk reward profile所能承受範圍的股票

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