2019年5月27日星期一

回歸基本步 反璞歸真

目前組合:

Match (MTCH US) 13.5%
Zscaler (ZS US) 10.5%
Zynga (ZNGA US) 10.5%
PayPal (PYPL US) 9.5%
Disney (DIS US) 9.5%
MongoDB (MDB US) 9.4%
Alteryx (AYX US) 9.3%
Cash 27.6%


組合 year to date回報:1.8%
標普500 year to date年回報:12.7%
恆指 year to date 回報:5.6%

- 過去大半個月的投資回報有所回落,但總算收窄了和S&P指數及恆指的差距。投資表現正相對改善中,投資策略改變漸見成效

- 回想自12年後,投資回報可謂無寸進,是一個迷失的半個10年,的確是一個挫折及倒退。再簡要檢討失敗原因:(i) 港股較難找到長期增長的優質公司、(ii) 投資操作納入較多炒賣成份,致選中優質增長股也未能坐得耐,(iii) 未能掌握沽出時機、(iv) 心態上變得怕輸累事,大跌後往往不敢放膽再買入,令致錯失了今年初最易賺錢的升勢、(iv) 即使轉投美股,但投資視野仍不夠寬,只集中在知名企業、(v) 市場效率提誤,令賺取超額回報較以前困難

- 目前正致力找回十多年前投資路上的自己,例如回顧以往的買賣紀錄,開始見一些成效。若非貿易戰在今個月起了變數,投資回報其實已大有改善。

- 有信心目前組合,以及重點watchlist中,最少一隻會是 ten bagger。中小型市值股方面,當中計有ZS(cloud based Internet security), MDB (document based database), AYX (big data analytics)及早前沽出的TTD (target digital advertising planning)。Match 是一個快速冒起中的約會平台,而Paypal 及 Disney的品牌價值、企業護城河及長期增長動力應不用特別多介紹,尤其是Disney即將推出串流訂閱服務 Disney Plus,足可補足傳統有線廣播客戶流失的趨勢

- 目前最怕造到鹿不識脫角,因中短期波動而錯失了這些潛在十倍股的升幅。要做的是集中及收窄投資焦點,並重點跟進,例如細心重溫公司的earnings call transcript 及閱讀多渠道的分析等。只要上述的其中一隻跑出,並適當地集中加注,要再取得高回報並非太難

- 選取優質股票是控制風險的較佳方式,即使指數顯著回調,手上持股大部份仍守在明確的上升走勢,及20/50天線上,目前27%的現金水平也適當地反映風險

- 故此,近數週己減低買賣次數。即使市況欠佳,但由於重拾以往的投資風格及理念,感到信心開始番回來。當然不會去到鐘擺的另一個極端一味死牛持有,要適當地尊重市場訊號,即使以選優秀成長股為重,也不要忽視中美衝突所引發的宏觀風險。要汲取去年底及今年初的教訓,在看好個股的基本面及對應宏觀風險中找得一個平衡點,目前的想法是以20天線的方向作一個主要的參考訊號


38 則留言:

  1. 個股的沽出決定我主要參考圖表的重要支持位,如ZS跌穿69、MDB跌穿135,如果對該股仍有較大信心,會先沽一半再觀察。

    回覆刪除
  2. 回覆
    1. 經一些深入研究後,對這兩公司抱有較大的期望及信心。簡而言之,這2公司分別在cyber security及database 上,因應雲及大數據的趨勢,推出了顛覆性的創新產品,並領前競爭對手很多

      貿易戰是不明朗因素;但一方面對中國的影響較大,此外科技股的表現仍領前指數,投資者仍願意買入受貿易戰影響較少並具成長性的公司

      刪除
    2. S&P昨晚倒跌0.8%,馬後炮看昨天的增持可能冒進一點;但從個股看,科技板塊、以至本身portfolio及重點watch list的表現又著實不差

      刪除
    3. 看來今晚跌破2800機會很大,唯有按計劃先暫時逐步撤退了

      刪除
  3. 目前正大幅度提高警覺,但以個股層面看大部份持股仍未到要沽出的程度。目前的宏觀走勢的確有惡化風險,但如投資取向以個股的基本面為重的話,也不要太輕易把手上的好股被震走;當然也需定下一個準則去到某個階段要撤退

    ZS將於周四收市後公佈季度業績,對組合回報的後向起決定作用

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. ZS業績正常但又低開呢

      刪除
    2. ZS 的業績對板,也有上調guidance,第四季的增長guidnace47%,較前放慢了一些,但仍是很理想數字

      業績後的回吐,應是估值高,加上個 positive surprise 無以前咁大,所以獲利回吐。單睇基本數據問題應不大

      刪除
  4. 美股表現暫仍很 resilient,開市時擔心市況也有減磅的衝動,但其後個股收窄甚至倒升

    ZS 業績後的回吐令人失望,但其20天線仍是向上。公司的業績其實無問題,主要是因估值高而欠缺更多的 upside surprise。參考近期的類似個案 TTD ,業績增長達標的話在獲利回吐後還有反彈的機會。今天在業績後一度跌8%應是有一些overshot

    回覆刪除
  5. Sell AYX US

    Undercut 50 day MA, 20 day MA trending down

    回覆刪除

  6. 今日科網股及雲計算股遭大洗倉,最強板塊也被拋售,樂觀點看也可代表大市短線跌浪可能也差不多完了。

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 唔一定,也可能反映市況全面轉差

      惟相信即使撤退不用太倉促,尤其是短線己頗超賣。MDB 及 ZS己在危險觀察名單上,惟2 公司目前的20天線仍未顯著下移

      刪除
    2. 原來是 Google, Amazon, Facebook等大型科技企業被反壟斷(antitrust)調查,拖累了整個板塊表現,之前守得尚算穩的科技企業被洗倉

      幸而早前已沽出 Amazon,此類消息應不致影響長期盈利增長前景。市場恐慌過後,這些不受anti trust 打擊的二、三線科技股或反可吸引資金流入

      刪除
    3. 應是利好小型雲計算, 但卻拖累大潟。MDB明天出業績, 在如此悲觀的氣氛應否唔博?

      刪除
    4. 非FANG科技股不受antitrust調查影響,但短期卻受資金流向拖累

      MDB應在6月5日收市後公佈業績,很大機會繼續高增長,但在目前市場氣氛下市場怎反應又是另一回事。中短期的市場波動不會影響對公司於noSQL(document based) database增長主題的看法。但穩陣而言,還是公佈業績後才追入較安心

      刪除
  7. TTD昨晚升12.9%,原該是投資者預計對科技巨企反壟斷(antitrust)調查反對公司作為一個digital marketing投放商反而有利。買入好股但被震走是投資遇到的問題,但無得馬後炮,5月初季績當日,因增長guidance稍為放慢,而被洗倉跌逾15%,又很難不沽出的

    回覆刪除
  8. MDB出了季績,可謂半杯水情況,revenue 增長78%,較預期更高。但由於研發開支,經營虧損收窄情況未算理想。昨晚業績前升7%應該有點 overhyped。惟對於這些營收初期的公司來說,營收增長更是重要

    MongoDB EPS beats by $0.02, beats on revenue

    MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of -$0.22 beats by $0.02; GAAP EPS of -$0.61 misses by $0.12.

    Revenue of $89.4M (+78.3% Y/Y) beats by $5.9M.

    MongoDB -3.9% on mixed FY20 outlook

    MongoDB (NASDAQ:MDB) -3.9% with Q1 beats and upside Q2 guidance offset by a mixed FY20 outlook.

    The Q2 view has revenue of $90-92M (estimate: $87.88M) and loss per share of $0.29 to $0.27 (estimate: $0.27 loss).

    FY20 has upside revenue of $375-381M (estimate: $372.46M) and downside loss per share of $1.11 to $1 (estimate: $1).

    Q1 revenue breakdown: Subscription, $84M (estimate: $78.1M); Service, $5.39M (estimate: $5.01M).

    Q1 cash and equivalents totaled $158.1M.

    Non-GAAP gross margin was 70%.

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 我也覺MDB業績冇問題,回咁多可能是昨日升突左,這類超高增長股業績如沒有大的positive surprise多數會引發獲利回套,但如業績對板,慢慢也會收復失地,TTD、ZS便是例子

      刪除
    2. 我略減持後跌幅又顯著收窄,真是明燈,所以買中好股也要掌握波幅

      惟我相信減持正確。在雲及大數據的趨勢下,noSQL database 的增長可以很大,公司在這方面暫無明顯競爭對手,大有機會是十倍股。但公司的 breakeven 來得較預期慢一些,不值 20%的投資比重

      刪除
  9. Reduce MDB
    Buy TWLO

    Reason: both have convincing growth stories. But the breakeven of MDB is likely to be delayed, while Twilio is already booking some profit

    回覆刪除
  10. 升勢好急, 會不會主動式沽貨?

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. Yes, among my current holdings MDB is now above 30% above its 50 day MA and I should put it in the watchlist for profit taking

      刪除
    2. 中小型科技股 Tableau 及Looker分別先後被 SalesForce 及 Google收購,令二、三線軟件股的估值漲

      刪除
    3. As a reference, in mid March MDB could shot as high as over 50% above its 50 days MA, though it won't necessarily
      as overshot this time around

      刪除
    4. 所以主動式沽出要執行也有難度,昨天MDB 也在應短線沽出的臨界點。但來又未至很 overshot,二來正式重上升勢只維持短短數天,所以想再渣耐一些,誰短股價己見了短期頂部

      刪除
  11. 今日軟件股遭洗倉,正好是換馬執靚個組合的好時機,沽出一些次貨,加注目標也是MDB,ZS,TWLO,SHOP,NOW,AYX呢幾隻

    回覆刪除
    回覆
    1. 沽出了什麼次貨? TDD也應是值得放在重點 watchlist的公司

      刪除
    2. 全沽了WDAY及ADSK,TTD沒怎麼跌,不好加

      刪除
    3. 昨日加注埋TTD,

      目前MDB,ZS,TWLO,AYX,NOW,VEEV,SHOP,TTD,MELI合共占比約40%,算是比較進取的配置比例

      刪除
    4. 我更相信進攻是最好的防守,我也要著緊繼續優化我的組合。兄台目前的 core portfolio很好,我相信可再集中一些

      刪除
    5. The business model of TTD looks promising. I was cautious on its slowing revenue growth trend as reflected by its share price tumble after its early May result announcement. Nonetheless, the bullish trend lately suggests that investors sill eye more on its long term growth theme of programatic advertising

      刪除
    6. 我不敢太集中因承受不了業績公布后的劇烈波動

      刪除
  12. To put it simple, this press release again reiterates that ZS delivers superior performance in cloud applications like Office 360. ZS is a convincing core holdings

    SAN JOSE, Calif.--(BUSINESS WIRE)-- Zscaler, Inc. (ZS), the leader in cloud security, announced today the release of its 2019 Office 365 Migration Survey, which examines enterprises’ experience with Office 365 and shows that gateway appliance upgrades and excessive network latency continue to delay Office 365 deployments. The survey showed that 41 percent of enterprises found network congestion as a major factor impacting the user experience. To address network issues, almost half of the enterprises surveyed are exploring the use of direct internet connections, which can reduce congestion and eliminate the latency caused by backhauling traffic.

    “Modern cloud applications require modern cloud architectures. Many organizations mistakenly deploy Office 365 on top of their current legacy networks, which leaves users with a poor experience and dropped connections,” said Punit Minocha, SVP of Business and Corporate Development, Zscaler. “Office 365 was designed to be located as close to the user as possible, but traditional networks fail to deliver the same advantage.”

    回覆刪除
  13. Disney is my star performer today

    Disney (NYSE:DIS) is up 2.4% out of the open after Morgan Stanley boosted its price target, pointing to stronger estimates for the company's key Disney Plus direct-to-consumer service.

    The firm raised its target to $160 from $135, now implying 15% upside. Its bull case target is $210, implying 52% upside.

    It now expects more than 130M global over-the-top subscribers by 2024, matching up with the company's own new guidance.

    "Our willingness to underwrite these higher DTC estimates stems from 1) a faster-than-expected global launch, 2) more IP aggregated more quickly than anticipated, and 3) a plan to leverage third-party distribution," it says.

    It set its new target on the combined effect of higher revenue expectations and expected profitability of the streaming service in 2024, along with Disney sustaining its premium multiple as the shift to DTC occurs.

    回覆刪除