2019年9月27日星期五

股災

目前組合:

Alphabet (GOOGL US) 13.6%
MongoDB (MDB US) 11.8%
Nvidia (NVDA US) 11.7%
Coupa (COUP US) 11.1%
Exact Sciences (EXAS US) 10.6%
MercadoLibre (MELI US) 10.5%
Guardant Health (GH US) 8.0%
Zscaler (ZS US) 7.9%
Eversunshine (1995 HK) 5.4%
Cash 9.3%


組合 year to date回報:(17.9)%
標普500 year to date年回報:18.8%
恆指 year to date 回報:0.3%

- 這個投資表現實在難以置信地羞愧及災難性,自己也很感挫敗及難以接受。過去一個月,美股指數再升近歷史高位,但只是靠公用、金融、能源及消費等舊經濟及價值型股份帶動。Facebook及Amazon等大型科技股在今輪升市已落後指數,而中小型以SaaS的雲端軟件股在9月份的表現更可用股災形容,不少自高位跌逾20%

- 今年的投資失誤在於首2個月沒全力追上反彈浪,到2月底時表現顯著落後指數,想買入高增長股搏追表現;但不少熱門的增長股(如TTD及TWLO等)到3月份時的估值已高及消耗大部分上升動力。正是一個買入好公司也要在對的時機及合理估值下買入的反面教材

- 自己的失誤當然自己負責,只遺憾太遲拜讀Saul及美股軍師的文章,接觸到這批高增長潛力股時已錯過升浪爆得最勁的一段。這也反映overcrowded的風險,回看Saul的六大愛股,AYX, MDB, ZS, OKTA, TWLO, TTD,在美股討論區實在太多人追隨,但除AYX及OKTA外,其餘4隻在今年首季爆上後,隨後半年也只是橫行

- 早前已因應資金撤離高增長股的市況沽出約30%至40%部位的中小型增長股,如TTD及TWLO等,買入如Alphabet (GOOGL)的藍籌,但投資表現仍受創很深。美股中小型股的波動性其實不比港股低,我接受持股因估值高而要作整固,但很多持股的回吐實在看得很忟及不甘心。例如之前佔最大比重的Zscaler,從高位回落近一半,但從多方渠道查證看,來自OTD及Palo Alto 的指控實在不盡確實,公司較早前的季績及guidance也合乎預期。另一個重災區GH也如是,公司8月份出了一個超乎預期的季績及guidance調高,但在無任何負面消息下,只是因軟銀及大股東減持的風險,幾乎每天的倒水式下跌實在是很氣餒

- 今次又是犯了未有沽出持股的錯誤。然而,早前因應市況沽出的部位其實不算少。但例如Zscaler,之前多方查證也不覺基本面有轉變(到頭來的確如是),故不想在股價被大幅被拋售時跟隨沽出。然而,業績發佈後股價來個20%的裂口下跌,才被迫忍痛沽出一半持股,已是太遲。我有因應市況減持股票以管理風險;但股價大幅下跌的同時,經查證後看不到基本因素有何惡化,我實在不願沽出。今次未有及時沽出某些持股是失誤,但回顧我買賣美股經驗,也有很多因一時的市場波動而沽出,從而錯失往後巨大升浪的例子

- Saul的討論區有人提到,今輪中小型軟件增長股被洗倉是因相關ETF停作運作,而需強制沽出股票有關。本周是相關ETF的最後沽出日期,有關股票沽壓應會減退。而觀看ZS,MDB,AYX等,近一、兩天跌勢企穩,波幅正在收窄,只是GH乃未止血。然而,美股這一輪升浪由舊經濟及價值型股,增長股遠遠落後,要小心這可能是牛市未期的現象

- 在對上的一個十年,我開始投資並取得了數以倍升的出色的表現。但這一個十年居然是原地踏步的迷失了十年。目前是放掉以往的成就感,重新再謙卑學習。未來會做的是要多嘗試分段買入及沽出、因應在給予耐性持有及追隨動力之間作平衡、以及適當的分散持股風險等


個股評論及操作回顧:

ZS - 為今個月虧損的重災區。花了不少時間參考其他人的意見,判斷OTR的看淡報告及Palo Alto Network的搶客指控均不成立。然而,這只看對了一半,公司季績後仍跌逾20%。ZS的業績優於預期,但guidance 調升不夠進取。估計原因是要說服大型企業更改核心網絡安全系統需要更多時間去做sales pitch。公司在雲端化的網絡保安的獨特性及領先性仍不容置疑,但需要些時間才能搶佔大型企業的market share。公司已請了一位reputable的Marketing Director;給予些時間於增長上應能重拾驚喜,維持是倍升股的期望。較早前已把倉位減半,會適時買回。參考劵商引述早前展銷會對企業客戶對Zscaler的評價,實在是非常的正面:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3501500-berenberg-leaves-zscaler-sidelines

MDB - 公司第二季的營收增67%,高於預期;且guidance也合理地調高。但公司的虧損降低速度卻稍為有落差,breakeven的日子或要稍為延後;業績後已減倉近一半。公司於nosql database的增長空間及競爭憂勢仍很大,回調後的估值已相對合理,維持是倍升股的期望

AYX - 之前走勢一直強於其他股票,早前沽出是因預期在中小型軟件股塊被洗倉下會被追沽。惟此數據分析平台的增長非常強勁,59%的季度營收增長,及120%以上的net revenue retention rate,尤其是此公司目前已錄得盈利。仍重點看好及等候機會買回

GH - 暫時看來是失敗的買入,為另一個重災區。公司的血液測試癌症有強的爆發力,但買入忽略估值高的風險。而軟銀可能套現及大股東出售股份是壓低股價的短期因素。尤其是軟銀投資的WeWork的IPO要延後,投資者擔心軟銀會有誘因短期內再套現GH

EXAS - 之前的股價企得甚硬淨,但9月份曾一天跌逾10%,原因是有機構質疑其大腸癌DNA篩檢技術。但觀乎其他分析師的睇法,該報告有斷章取義之嫌

https://www.360dx.com/business-news/exact-sciences-stock-falls-publication-new-crc-screening-cost-effectiveness-study

本周較早前有消息指美國FDA批准擴大其Cologuard測試的適用年齡範圍,但當日股價大幅高開後單日轉向且最後倒跌,其實非常不甘心:

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3501019-fda-oks-exacts-cologuard-younger-people


TTD - 早前沽出原因除了是相對走勢轉弱外,營收增長放慢前30%水平,相對來說也不夠吸引

TWLO - 業績後沽出,公司的增長逾80%,但當中有頗大部份來自發行新股支付收購去達到。公司收購Sendgrid的協同效應來得較預期慢

SQ - 業績後沽出,公司第二季的季績合乎預期,但guidance沒有上調。沽出的原因除市場反應欠佳外,支付及Fintech面對的潛在競爭對手似乎也較多

49 則留言:

  1. 還是STAN WEINSTEIN的理論準確,8月SaaS逆市微跌,股價數月停滯不前,已有stage 3的感覺,可惜對持股太有CONVICTION,堅定持有,所以導致今日慘痛。

    認同買入增長股需要在熱門時保持警覺,如2018年的SQ, NFLX。也可以分注買入賣出,避免持有太重貨以致積重難返,不忍心走。

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    1. 但同樣地過去也有很多經驗買了優質增長股,然後要高位買回

      我打算以後試用中庸之道,對有信心的持股30至40%,用buy and hold方式處理,餘下的因應市況果斷處理

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    1. Square 目前的估值相對便宜,但基於龍頭優勢不夠明顯,對公司的信心始終不夠大。加上早前公司的CFO 離職,美國投資者對之看法是比較負面,認為這是一個欠信心的訊號

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  3. 雲端股是否真的屬革命性的突破技術,我仍有存疑。我一向喜歡行人少的地方,亦不怕fear of missing out熱門股。自己有自己的步伐。買美股ETF追求較細波幅的方法亦可考慮。過去數月不少報章專欄不停推介雲端股的好處,我已有點戒心。

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    1. 小心公用股己有點 overcrowded味道,XLU PE 達25倍已高過XLK (technology)的23倍

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    2. 最弊好多互聯網雲端股連PE都無。

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    3. 兩者業務性質及公司所處階段完全不同,無法直接比較,
      高速成長在業務初段的公司處投資期,支出大沒盈利很正常,沒PE不代表貴或泡沫,一些公司在業務周期頂點時可能PE只得單位數,但其實己是偏貴。

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    4. 此留言已被作者移除。

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    5. 就算買雲端股,個人傾向等過了燒錢投資期,到了收成期才買入,屆時仍有成為十倍股的機會。在燒錢投資期買入,博中的確有機會翻幾十個開,但冒的風險極大。我個人比較保守,不欲冒進,暫時留在漢中算;而且美國牛市周期已超過十年,異象頻生,現時也不是徑走子午谷,偷襲長安的時刻。

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    6. CRM我不清楚,但MSFT人人都使用,一向予人信心。不過目前美股普遍估值偏高,所以持有近一半現金可能較好。

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    7. Mircosoft 的雲端 office 應用當大家用慣後,未來肯定會及可以加價,將來盈利還有大量提升空間

      現在很晚,明晚才詳細回應您的觀點

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    8. "雲端股是否真的屬革命性的突破技術,我仍有存疑。"

      可能是,所以我少沾少相對 general application 的 雲端公司,例如 TEAM,SMAR等。但我的主要持股,如MDB 及 ZS等,是有一個較明確及具信心的增長主題

      先談 MDB (MONGODB),在 Internet of Things, AI, 大數據及雲等大趨勢下,肯定的是對數據需求大量增加,而以往的數據庫模式並不是最適用。 nosql模式的database較可能適合於這些新類型的應用。而MDB 目前在 NOSQL上是具有領先優勢,AMAZON 較早前也承認其NOSQL 的product 不及 MDB

      而ZS是以雲端為基礎的 network security solution,目前的確還未有在這個範疇完全類同的主要競爭對手

      我不是IT專才,但這些投資大主題都相對易理解及較具說服力。今次股價大跌,問題不外是估值高及財務上還未 breakeven。但他們的虧損正收窄中,而 ZS 在非會計準則上己開始盈利。較早前己因應市況對此兩公司減持近半,但對有明確信心的公司,不欲全數減持,最多可因應市況把倉位調到5%以下

      加上較早前套現的AYX 做大數據分析 solution,也是具明確增長前景以及目前無明確競爭對手的公司

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  4. 我仍相信SaaS的business model具很大優勢,長遠前景光明,目前最主要問題是今年升幅己巨,碰正現時市場口味由Growth轉Value便首當其衝,我自己今個月已逐步將相關股倉位減至10%以下,主要是考慮到即使這些股業績無問題故事仍完好無缺,但如市場口味轉變導至願意給予的估值持續萎縮,這些股會跌到什麼水平是完全無底,所以我的做法是起碼等走勢有所好轉才考慮買回,寧願到時買貴些。

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    1. 其實回看我是有應對風險,這些中小型增長股我過去一個月也減了40%,減的部位不算少,但也受創很深。或許我要學習再狠一些

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  5. 我買JD也蝕唔少,BTI收息反而幾穩!

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  6. Earlier this week sold NVDA and test buy AAPL

    Just sold GOOGL US to trim equity exposure as recession risk is looming

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    1. 反之中小增長股己過跌得超賣,錯過了最佳減持時機。在之前己超跌下,目前的跌幅暫且又不算很嚴重

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  7. 納指今日跌破今年升軌,好多代表性個股如AMZN,FB,GOOG,DIS,MSFT,MA,V也破了相應的重大支持位,形勢(起碼短期)開始有點不樂觀

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    1. 指數未跌破200天線及8月份的低位,未算全面轉差

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    2. From Investor Business Daily,

      "On a positive note, the stock market may be getting oversold and could be due for a bounce. The put-call volume ratio reached as high as 1.37 Wednesday, reflecting a high number of bearish bets on stocks, before ending the day at 1.24. Historically, such spikes in investor fear often coincide with market lows. "

      As far as I recall, put call ratio can be an useful indicator for short term top/bottom

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  8. 不如試下集中返港股? 印象中當年表現倍升時是以港股為主的

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    1. 不會完全唔玩港股,但不再是主力,始終在美國容易找到倍升股。是自己的問題多於市場的問題,一是錯失了今年初最易賺的一段,要追上實在不容易、二來是太遲認識Saul這位美國民間高手的文章

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  9. 買入 3662 HK
    以物業管理板塊來說,早前買入的1995 HK雖則不差,但相當欠缺上升動力。買入奧園物管,適當時候或會沽出 1995

    恆指仍未轉強,但物業管理及消費此兩板塊已見動力上升,或許是先行訊號。美股方面,高增長股在之前超跌下,昨晚的相對表現其實不差,跌幅顯著收窄以至倒升,會觀察是否在形成底部

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    1. 不一定是先行訊號,也可以是大跌前的僅餘綠洲板塊。

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  10. Buy NVDA AYX ROKU

    目前改以小注買入,以分散及控制風險

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  11. 周五再買入 ATVI US (Activision)
    主要是看好 Call of Duty mobile version的推出,有不錯反應,應能帶動盈利增長反彈。公司目前的PER20多倍,對具長期品牌地位(world of warcraft)來說,是合理水平

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  12. 昨晚GH跌幅一度擴大至7%,忍痛止蝕。除了Softbank 可能沽出套現外,這個潛在競爭對手的消息可能是 (https://boards.fool.com/for-those-still-in-gh-34308975.aspx)股價近月大跌的原因。

    這次交易是一個很不愉快和失敗的經驗,公司的前景及增長爆炸性很強,自9月份股價大幅走弱,而不覺公司有何重大負面消息。股價在極度超賣後,連續反彈三天,但昨天在增長股表現不俗下又跌逾6%,終忍不住要沽出。生物科技股的股價波動的確難掌握

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  13. 昨晚因應市況減持了一些 MDB US

    新近上市的Datadog(DDOG US),從事 IT infrastructure monitoring, application performance management, 及log management等。被很多美股高手重點看好,值得留意

    https://boards.fool.com/datadog-ddog-thoughts-and-purchases-34311884.aspx?sort=whole#34311884

    https://boards.fool.com/datadog-ddog-thoughts-and-purchases-34311884.aspx?sort=whole#34311884

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  14. Add ROKU

    Roku (NASDAQ:ROKU) +3.6% pre-market after Macquarie upgrades shares to Outperform from Neutral with a $130 price target, raised from $110, saying the stock is set to triple over the next three years.

    "Roku has built a leading position in the U.S., and we believe its devices will find a ready market abroad," as the shift to connected television viewing that is occurring in the U.S. will follow internationally in the coming years, says Macquarie analyst Timothy Nollen.

    Roku can grow its user base by 2x-3x to more than 70M active accounts by 2022 from 31M currently, which are mostly in the U.S., Nollen says, adding that 72M subscribers by 2022 could drive Platform revenue to $2.3B and overall revenue of $2.7B, nearly triple 2019 guidance.

    Roku's average Sell Side Rating is Outperform while its Seeking Alpha Authors Rating is Neutral.

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  15. 美股增長股近周的表現正在改善,但昨晚Activision逆市下跌。原來暴雪早前於電競比賽中,終止了一名於比賽上嗌"光復香港 時代革命"口號的香港人的比賽資格。對此,己有不少美國及香港台灣網民不滿及表示罷玩。暴雪在這些言論自由爭議中,隨時兩面不討好,影響玩家人數。姿態上也不想持有這樣對待香港人的公司,會考慮沽出

    https://www.hk01.com/%E9%81%8A%E6%88%B2%E5%8B%95%E6%BC%AB/383525/%E6%9A%B4%E9%9B%AA%E6%AD%B8%E9%82%8A-%E7%88%90%E7%9F%B3%E6%88%B0%E8%A8%98-%E5%A4%A7%E5%B8%AB%E8%81%B7%E6%A5%AD%E8%B3%BD%E9%A6%99%E6%B8%AF%E9%81%B8%E6%89%8B-blitzchung-%E9%81%AD%E9%99%A4%E5%90%8D

    An Activision Blizzard (NASDAQ:ATVI) player suspension over Hong Kong commentary is threatening to wash out success from its recent Call of Duty: Mobile launch, showing the company can't take chances on its Chinese market, the WSJ's Dan Gallagher notes.

    The mobile game surpassed 35M downloads in its first three days and 100M in its first week, with Sensor Tower estimating global gross revenue at $10M (about triple the launch revenue speed of rival Fortnite).

    And the game hasn't launched in China yet. But the company's suspension of a Hearthstone league player for voicing sympathy for Hong Kong protesters has launched backlash in the U.S., including a #BoycottBlizzard hashtag.

    It's bad timing for that, Gallagher notes, with revenue at Blizzard falling over the past two quarters and heading for a 28% decline this year.

    ATVI is down 30% over the past year over worries about its game pipeline, he says, and "Criticism at home may be unpleasant, but the company won’t want to risk losing the China market."

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  16. 高增長股走勢確實是改善中,我也開始逐步補番D貨

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  17. Sell ATVI
    Buy LULU
    Add NVDA DDOG

    目前把每注的注碼調低以控制風險,所以交易的次數也較頻繁

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  18. Buy 2269 HK

    水泥及內房有機會展開反彈走勢

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  19. SaaS 又遭大規模洗倉,價值股又回勇,Growth/Momentum 轉 Value的走勢是否仍在延續真是不易判斷,只能用一個平衡的組合去應對了

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    1. 應該係這單消息,不再減息代表對高增長高估增股的意欲減低。好在我之前也把投資組合略為分散至其他 sector

      Markets have more or less priced in a near-certain chance of another rate cut when the Fed meets at the end of this month, but the Chicago Fed's Charles Evans is not at all on board.

      "Policy probably is in a good place right now," he tells an audience in Peoria. What's more, he says his fellow Fed members are in agreement.

      That this is coming from Evans is particularly notable given his generally more dovish attitude.

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  20. 昨晚高增長軟件股大跌的原因在於Morgan Stanley調低對WDAY的評級,引來連鎖效應。雖則手上高增長軟件股的增長軌道和WDAY不盡相同;但在經濟下行風險增加,以及今波反彈的表現仍未太突出;仍要留意該批股票可能仍未過危險期

    Cloud-software stocks were slammed Wednesday morning after Workday Inc.’s analyst day sent fears through the sector and a Morgan Stanley analyst suggested that a recent pullback in the hot sector was not enough to dive in wholeheartedly.

    Workday WDAY, -11.33% shares dropped as much as 13.3% through 1 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, swinging to a loss on the year. The concern appears to be slowing growth for the company’s Human Capital Management, or HCM, software, the core human-resources business for Workday.

    Cloud-software stocks were slammed Wednesday morning after Workday Inc.’s analyst day sent fears through the sector and a Morgan Stanley analyst suggested that a recent pullback in the hot sector was not enough to dive in wholeheartedly.

    Workday WDAY, -11.33% shares dropped as much as 13.3% through 1 p.m. Eastern time Wednesday, swinging to a loss on the year. The concern appears to be slowing growth for the company’s Human Capital Management, or HCM, software, the core human-resources business for Workday.

    “SaaS valuations are still at risk to further market volatility and we expect the group to remain choppy until we get through C3Q estimates and there is some greater comfort that the demand backdrop has not materially worsened as we head into 2020,” Evercore ISI analysts wrote in a midday note on the decline in cloud-software stocks.

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  21. https://www.barrons.com/articles/12-stocks-losers-tough-earnings-season-51571083610

    Slack Technologies, ServiceNow, and a number of other enterprise software stocks are trading sharply lower Wednesday after cautionary comments from Morgan Stanley analyst Keith Weiss on growth rates and valuations in the group.

    On Slack (ticker: WORK), Weiss slashed his target price to $28 from $38, maintaining an Equal Weight rating, and cautioned that growing competition and other factors will likely limit the multiple investors will pay for the stock.

    On ServiceNow (NOW), Weiss cut his rating to Equal Weight from Overweight after a year-to-date gain of more than 50%, citing risks in a chief financial officer transition and tough coming earnings comparisons, among other factors.

    Although Weiss trimmed his price targets on a host of high-multiple software stocks, he issued a separate, more detailed analysis of Slack, and the market is obviously taking his cautionary take to heart.

    “Mixed Q2 results, increasing competition, weakening IT spending environment and mixed commentary from management around ‘funnel conversion issues’ likely limits the multiple paid for WORK,” he writes.

    On the competitive front, Weiss points to a recent Morgan Stanley survey of chief information officers that finds Slack’s position weakening versus Microsoft Teams. The survey also found growing interest and an improving competitive position for Google Hangouts.

    As noted, Weiss does a deep dive on software multiple compression in a separate note, asking rhetorically if the sharp pullback in enterprise software valuations offers a buying opportunity in the group. Weiss advises against bottom-fishing, warning that there is still risk in “high multiple names.”

    “Despite solid secular demand trends behind software and generally solid Q2 results, software stocks have pulled back 23% on average from the 52-week highs,” he writes. “With a combination of high growth software multiples at historical peaks and heavy institutional ownership of the names, prices proved difficult to sustain against a volatile macro environment and sector rotations away from momentum names.”

    So is it time to buy? Nope, he says. Weiss notes that many stocks still trade at sales multiples above historical averages, with stocks still up 27% year to date on average despite the pullback. He also says the company’s CIO survey finds “a steep deceleration in software spending growth into 2020,” and he cautious that many companies face “difficult comps” in the second half of the year. “We see unfavorable risk/rewards for a lot of the high fliers in software,” he writes.

    Weiss does find some stocks attractive, including those in the “growth at a reasonable price” category, like Adobe (ADBE) and Microsoft. But he cut price targets today on a host of names, including MongoDB (MDB), PagerDuty (PD), LiveRamp Holdings (RAMP), VMware (VMW), Workiva (WK), and Yext (YEXT).

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  22. 港股動力股形勢較好,按揭放寬有利地產股,會不會考慮買回16?
    相反美股,SaaS真令人失望,若指數回吐, 定必再破底, 目前, 買回NFLX, MSFT, TSLA,GOOG, NIKE等走勢好的科技股及零售股勝算更大。

    NFLX業績又不錯。

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    1. 幸好較前己買入物業管理股,但港股中除美團點評(3690)及海底撈(6862)外,沒有其他很具信心的選擇

      我相信我買入的SaaS相關股票的底子是比較好,它們還在起步階段的初期,還有很大的成長空間。而Slack的確易受Microsoft及Facebook的潛在競爭威脅,反之我持有的AYX, MDB, ZS, COUP等的進入障礙是較為明確。但經昨晚的大跌後,除非走勢顯著轉強,不欲貿貿然買入

      早前己買入Apple, Nvidia, LULU等持股以分散風險,但注碼仍不夠

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    2. Netflix 升幅收窄,始終競爭增力及製劇成本仍是重大挑戰

      有留意Tesla,但以此股的track record,始終不敢在業績前搏

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  23. Buy GOOGL US

    To diversify more into blue chip stocks

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