| Tesla (TSLA US) | 18.2% |
| Apple (AAPL US) | 13.8% |
| Alteryx (AYX US) | 9.8% |
| Microsoft (MSFT US) | 9.8% |
| MasterCard (MA US) | 8.4% |
| Paycom (PAYC US) | 7.7% |
| MSCI (MSCI US) | 6.9% |
| Atlassian (TEAM US) | 6.7% |
| National Retail Properties (NNN US) | 3.7% |
| Realty Income (O US) | 3.7% |
| Cash | 11.2% |
組合 year to date回報：12.3%
標普500 year to date年回報：1.6%
納指year to date年回報：3.6%
恆指 year to date 回報：(6.4%)
－ 很久未試過跑羸指數那麼多了。除了有幸選中股王Tesla，以及科技藍籌Apple及Microsoft穩步上升外；更深層原因是投資心法似乎找到突破點，若能維持此表現，投資表現有望可克服一個瓶頸位
－ 第一個要點是更集中在走勢最強的強份。目前持股全都是在明確上升走勢，以及明顯地強於指數。例如早前沽出Facebook，其估值及走勢並不差；沽出是因其落後其他藍籌科技股。果然Facebook剛公佈的季績，便因成本控制而令市場失望。早前沽出Alphabet也是類似的考慮。投資貴精不貴多；有說股票市場的長期增值，大部份來自最優秀的一批公司。目前的持股已減至10隻，未來盡量控制在15隻以內
－ 第二個要點是在沽出決定上睇得緊些。除了以前提過的沽出準則外，止蝕點力求縮窄在3%至4%之內。若股價升勢過急，自創新高後若回吐2%至3%以上也要審視有否需要先行部份獲利。以往投資做得不好的地方，便是忽略個別部位的虧損對portfolio return的負面影響，尤其是在一輪winning streak過後，因自滿往往在止蝕、止賺上疏忽。目前力求造到即使一、兩天出現負回報或跑輸指數，也要認真檢視其原因
－ 總結此兩要點，便是不要給予投資組合內的under performer 太多時間拖累投資回報。若個股未能有優秀股價表現便要決斷些踼走
－ 今個月的投資表現仍有改善空間，有些買賣決定可再做得決斷些，以rule based的第一眼決定很多時是對的，不用等太多confirming signals。此外，Microsoft其實應一早加碼；只是此股於科技股來說相對慢牛，所以不其然地忽略此股
－ 武漢肺炎對美股打擊暫不大。但半導體股受累較多，因產業績鏈有相當部分在中國，會受到停工的影響。此外，Apple及Tesla的供應鏈及生產線等也會受到短期影響。反之，軟件行業，尤其是雲端SaaS的，暫時影響不大
－ 投資目前以美股為主，惟仍會注視武漢肺炎對港股的影響，今次疫病危機應能帶來一個趁低買入的機會
Good, 我朋友過去半年all in整副身家於TSLA，應該贏了層樓。
回覆刪除目前最要緊是身體健康！
刪除這個朋友是您本人嗎？^^
忘了跟師兄說，新年快樂，身體健康!
回覆刪除tsla升幅真係超勁,我走失了。
回覆刪除對於這些走失的大升股，不妨想想當初為什麼會走失這些機會
刪除想到既話,當初就唔會走失啦。
刪除Reduce AAPL, Wuhan Virus may be affecting supply chain in China
回覆刪除Buy BEP, alternative energy utilities, i.e. hydro, wind and solar, 4% plus dividend yield
Reduce AYX
回覆刪除原來昨晚中了 PAYC 的 stop loss order ，減持了一半，現金比重提高至接近20%
回覆刪除美股昨晚跌幅擴大，很多增長股走勢逆轉，納指下試廿天線，繼續啟動風險管理
Buy LULU
回覆刪除Add TSLA and BEP
今天讀了這篇文，更確信是買對了
刪除Tesla Model 3 — 汽車界的iPhone時刻
https://medium.com/@vgod/tesla-model-3-汽車界的iphone時刻-be314825d96d
TSLA買得好，當機立斷，不等回吐追入，捉得非常好，又大升了。
刪除今次終可威番一次了
刪除您早前提及的SQ表現也很好，我目前留意美股軍師買入的Stone（STNE），和SQ的業務近似，惟營運地在巴西
其實有一個體會，能讓您趁回吐買入的便不是爆升股
刪除之不過，昨晚增持的比重不是太多，始終不想太進取
我昨日701左右買了少少tsla
刪除一個好的開始，相信您也看到在基本面上TSLA 開始走上了獲利的軌道
刪除Tesla 應是一個長期的投資主題，分段小注買入可減輕高追的心理壓力
Add back AYX US
回覆刪除Buy STNEUS
回覆刪除這個某程度上在預期之內，上海只佔 Tesla 的總產能約2成，其實負面影響不算太大
回覆刪除Tesla -6% after confirming China deliveries delay
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) confirms deliveries scheduled for early February in China will be delayed due to the coronavirus outbreak. Execs expects the production line to catch up once the outbreak gets better and the Shanghai factory is reopened, although that timetable is unclear.
The EV automaker has been relatively immune from broad concerns over a reeling Chinese economy as investors and analysts focus on the long-term picture.
Wedbush is out with a note this morning in that vein. "We are currently modeling ~20K deliveries in the key China region for the March quarter. In our opinion the current situation is more bark than bite as the aggressive trajectory of Giga 3 production and demand out of Shanghai look very strong out of the gates and the potential to hit 150k units/demand out of this region over the next year still remains intact," forecasts analyst Dan Ives.
Sell AYX/PAYC/TEAM
回覆刪除Add BEP
美股指數今晚上升，主要是由舊經濟股如金融、能源、公用等帶動。而增長股及雲端股高開後大幅人倒跌，加上股價己超越50天線甚多，適先避其鋒
至於超強勢股TSLA，目前繼續觀察，一隻超強勢股的走勢不會那麼快逆轉
and one addition rationale for the sell decision is the disruption in share price movement pattern
刪除Add back AAPL
回覆刪除Apple's (NASDAQ:AAPL) major suppliers in China plan to resume full-scale production on February 10 despite the continuing coronavirus outbreak.
Chinese officials and companies have set the date to resume work, but there are doubts about the timing due to the travel bans and health impact of the virus.
Most iPhones are produced in China, primarily by Hon Hai (OTCPK:HNHAF,OTCPK:HNHPD) and Pegatron.
Sell MSFT also, as it is far above its 50 day MA
回覆刪除Buy 700 HK and 2013 HK
回覆刪除Allocate some money back into HK equities
刪除騰訊社交網絡服務平台中小企業精準營銷服務提供商的微盟集團(02013.HK)。騰訊(00700.HK)旗下微信小程序運營三周年商業化成績昨天首次曝光，野村指騰訊小程序新功能可建立用戶購物信心，重申騰訊「買入」評級看437元，富瑞則指微信小遊戲商業化有增長趨勢給予騰訊「買入」評級看455.3元。
於昨天召開2020微信PRO公開課上，「商業化」成了關鍵詞。小程序運營三周年商業化成績首次曝光，2019年小程序日活躍用戶超過3億，累計創造逾8,000億人民幣交易額，按年急增160%，不僅如此，小程序商業化中，廣告和交易變現雙雙得到提升。其中流量主廣告收入2019年按年升53%，而中長尾小程序通過官方廣告能力獲得收入佔比由56%提升至76%。在小程序、企業微信、小遊戲、微信支付等多條業務線分頭推進下，基於微信的商業閉環已經初見雛形。
摩根士丹利發表研究報告，首予微盟集團(02013.HK) 「增持」評級，目標價6.6元。報告稱，微盟提供的商業雲端服務幫助零售商在毋須提供分成下將直銷過程數碼化。該行料其向中型客戶加快滲透將大幅改善經營數據及觸發估值重評。
刪除報告表示，微盟軟件即服務(SaaS)定位強勁，鼓勵零售商維持客戶基礎以避免向電商平台提供高額分成。隨著電商平台集中化及擠擁，零售商有意自設私人客戶平台，提高經營效率。大摩認為，微盟商業雲端可滿足有關需求。隨著微盟與更多社交平台合作，將為客戶帶來更大附加價值。受惠上客增長及每月戶平均收入(ARPU)擴張，該行料微盟SaaS收入在2018至2021年間年均複合增長達39%。
大摩估算，微盟現估值相當於2020年預測市售率(EV/sales)3倍，較內地同業折讓45%，較美國同業更折讓逾70%，認為估值吸引。
昨晚沽出的股票應該決定正確，除了Microsoft以外。轉型為cloud based subscription model不單帶來穩定銷售增長，剛剛的季績也反映隨之而來的利潤率擴大也可帶來估值提升，繼續是一個 convincing core holdings
回覆刪除昨晚沽出原因純粹是因其股價高於50天線逾13%，以該股而言是很偏高的水平。現在回看，減持一半會是較合理的做法
Add back some MSFT US
刪除Cut loss STNE
回覆刪除Buy TTD
TTD與微盟業績有點相似，電子商貿及針對性廣告營銷也是大趨勢，以中港股市來說，SaaS的題材非常特別，加上有700持股做靠山及為主要客戶。可以令股值提升。
刪除微盟的business model是TTD 及 SHOP的混合，暫時看來是我近期買得比較成功的港股，但始終太依靠騰訊及市值細，比重不會太高
刪除港股方面，從事醫藥研究外判的如2269,3759等，近期也顯著領前指數
STNE的止蝕做得銷為遲，之前買南美版 Amazon MELI 也是以虧本收場。始終這是拉丁美洲科網企業仍要面對較大的政治風險
刪除AAPL ...
回覆刪除The Chinese authorities have told Foxconn that it cannot open its iPhone production factories on February 10, as reported by Nikkei.
Reuters previously said that any additional delays would have a significant impact on Apple’s iPhone sales. The company depends on Foxconn factories to assemble iPhones in the quantities it requires; if the company can’t make them, Apple can’t sell them.
https://9to5mac.com/2020/02/08/report-china-delays-foxconn-plans-to-restart-iphone-production-due-to-ongoing-coronavirus-concerns/
Buy AMD
回覆刪除Add LULU
作為LULU的FANS, 我比較擔心疫情令中國中產的消費意欲下降,中國門市最快到2月17日才營業。中國的銷售都佔總銷量4分1, 雖然大陸客戶轉向電子商貿落單, 但疫情持續, 人民也沒心情外出學YOGA。另一角度, YOGA可在室內進行或一個人做都可以, 適合疫情下又想留在室內做運動的人。
回覆刪除Thanks for input. LULU doesn't disclose its geographical sales breakdown. I just checked its result announcement press release, if we judge by number of store breakdown, Asia (let alone China) shall account for less than 10% of sales. Correct me if I am wrong
刪除http://investor.lululemon.com/static-files/e3cc788d-d594-417e-8a2d-25a860b09f40
2013連續兩天大幅衝高後顯著回落，今天倒跌3%，目前帳目上仍有合理利潤；但以中短線的角度看，今天應沽出或至少減持
回覆刪除究其原因，是目前主力在美股，對港股沒花太多精力監察
Reduce AAPL - I am afraid there is still uncertainty over China's factory resumption
回覆刪除Swap NNN for O because of relative momentum
Add AMD US
Buy TSM
回覆刪除Add little bit TSLA
Sell 2013 HK, admittedly the selling time was not good, should have taken this Monday or Tuesday
回覆刪除Test buy SHOP US
回覆刪除Tesla 配股，但攤薄比率不高，到目前為止市場反應先跌後升
回覆刪除Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) plans to offer about $2B in stock, along with a $300M greenshoe option for the underwriters.
Proceeds to be used to strengthen its balance sheet, and for general corporate purposes.
Expected trading date: today, according to Bloomberg.
Underwriters: Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley.
Elon Musk plans to purchase up to $10M of the offering, and board member Larry Ellison up to $1M.
Comments from the SA comment gallery: "Repair the roof when the sun shines." "With shares at $700+, he should be fired for NOT doing a capital raise."
配股價767美金，可見市場反應仍是相當受落
刪除Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) capital raise is said to price at $767/share, according to Bloomberg.
That would mark about a 4.6% discount from today's close of $804. Tesla shares are down 0.9% in postmarket action, quoting at $796.68.
The car and battery maker planned to offer about $2B in stock along with a $300M underwriter option.
SaaS的AYX竟破頂，fear of missing out應該參與一點。
回覆刪除The 4Q result of AYX was a strong beat
刪除Alteryx (NYSE:AYX): Q4 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.64 beats by $0.35; GAAP EPS of $0.44 beats by $0.27.
Revenue of $156.45M (+75.5% Y/Y) beats by $25.8M.
Alteryx (NYSE:AYX) +2% reports Q4 beats with 76% Y/Y revenue growth.
For Q1, the company sees revenue of $105-108M (in-line with the $105.5M estimate) and a loss per share of $0.11-0.07 (consensus: $0.05).
The FY20 forecast includes $555-565M in revenue (consensus: $522.5M) and EPS of $0.80-0.91 (consensus: $0.82).
Q4 non-GAAP gross profit margin was 93%, flat on the year.
Income from operations totaled $51M, up from last year's $26.4M.
Alteryx ended the quarter with $974.9M in cash and equivalents.
AYX 是做大數據分析的 user friendly應用軟件，不屬於雲計算的一類
刪除2月初股價出現一支大陰燭下跌時，因應風險管理而沽出；其後股價雖回升至高位，但因近業績公佈而不想太搏買入，需知中小型增長股在業績公佈前後波動可以很大
雖然這個沽出後補回錯失了中間的某些升幅，但經去年的失敗教訓，要更注重風險管理，情願錯失當中的一些升浪。很多沽出decision事後看來無需要也費時失事，但若做少一次風險管理損失可以很大，當作是買一個保險
Buy back some AYX
回覆刪除Sell TSM
回覆刪除Reduce AAPL - there is still uncertainty over China's supply chain
Add MSFT
Add SHOP
I think the earlier pullback of MSFT was because of this. It has no material impact on its growth and represents an opportunity to add on dip
刪除A judge has temporarily blocked the $10B, winner-take-all JEDI cloud contract in response to a suit from Amazon (AMZN +0.2%).
Microsoft (MSFT -1%) was awarded the Pentagon contract last October.
Last month, Amazon Web Services filed a formal motion to pause Microsoft's work on the contract, alleging the award process had clear deficiencies, errors and unmistakable bias." The court has now granted that request.
Earlier this week, Amazon said it wanted to depose President Trump, Defense Secretary Mark Esper, and former Defense Secretary James Mattis in its JEDI legal battle.