2020年1月14日星期二

Back to winning streak

目前組合:

Apple (AAPL US) 13.2%
Tesla (TSLA US) 12.8%
Nvidia (NVDA US) 11.7%
Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) 10.6%
Coupa (COUP US) 8.9%
MasterCard (MA US) 8.5%
Paycom (PAYC US) 7.2%
Microsoft (MSFT US) 7.2%
Alphabet (GOOGL US) 7.0%
Alteryx (AYX US) 6.5%
Facebook (FB US) 6.0%
CrowdStrike (CRWD US) 2.9%

組合 year to date回報:8.6%
標普500 year to date年回報:1.8%
納指year to date年回報:3.4%
恆指 year to date 回報:2.7%

- 經一年半的失誤後,終回復顯著跑羸指數表現。除了把握年底及年初股市表多較強而適當地進取;選股策略正確,不再太側重中小市值增長股也是原因。以Apple, Facebook, MasterCard, Alphabet, Nvidia, Microsoft等 growth at reasonable price藍籌作骨幹、再搏中近期最當紅的爆升股Tesla及美團點評、以及重新買入中小市值增長股如AYX及COUP等

- 即使目前有再買入雲端股,取態也較前保守及picky。要求在營業額高增長之餘,至少要有non GAAP的盈利,或虧損大幅收窄,breakeven在望的公司

- 採用更多momentum trading的考慮,在大牛市中還未能輕易地創新高的公司,不會給太多時間等待。較早前己放棄了Amazon及Netflix、以及沽出新產品公佈後,股價乏力創新高的AMD、以及為生物科技股GH及NBIX止蝕

- 目前的確是相當順手的時期。市場上的領導股份也是較熟悉及偏好的股份。很多大市值增長在一個很強及明確的上升軌上;盡量享受這一段年初升浪,適時止賺鎖定利潤及增持現金。可以做得更好的是對買中的爆升股如TSLA等,其實可以小注每天再加注把比重增大,當然前提是要制定及執行止賺策略

- 目前當然不是自滿的時候,過去一年半投資的失誤實在太多,自去年底的強勢不過是修補其中部分。基於seasonal factor,年初股市的強勢某程度上在意料之內;今年頭兩周的良好回報很大機會是高於往後全年平均,要為總會出現的股市調整作準備。居安思危準備及執行止賺策略,盡量引入主動式沽出。目前的盤算是對高於50天線10%至20%的公司;要加強沽出戒備,一旦創新高後回吐1%至2%以上,便應沽出部份持股鎖定利潤。寧願如TSLA的操作實例,一旦股價掉頭再創新高後再補回。至於止蝕準則,今後目標是要控制在3%以內止損

50 則留言:

  1. 昨晚NVDA觸及限價盤,科技股昨晚見顯著獲利回吐,應該順應減持一些

    AAPL及TSLA已設下限價沽出盤,但昨晚未觸及

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    1. 雲端股近日回復動力,但汲取之前教訓,若走勢不對版要果斷沽出

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  3. Buy O US

    此為美國的REITs,目前的美股牛氣充足,但要居安思危,不能一味買入增長股。美國的10年期債息又再向下,現階段可買入一些防守性的股票,為一旦市況回調作好準備

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  4. YOU 兄 今年開局極佳,有了堅實基礎往後操作便更能進退自如了,
    我今年開局比較審慎,雖然買的股表現不錯但因持現金較多,目前只能輕微跑贏大市

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    1. 的確有大師兄歸位的感覺,但目前切忌自滿及放鬆。今年初的投資表現的確很順手,但我繼續密切觀察有否需要短線沽出以鎖定部分利潤,在一個bull run賺錢不難,但能否保往利潤才是關鍵所在

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  5. 昨晚睡前portfolio的表現還很正常,但一覺醒來,看到科技股升幅大為收窄。反之防守性sector如consumer staples, REITs及公用股等跑出,要小心及留意是否已展開sector rotation

    雲端股昨晚的升幅也有為收窄,再檢視他們的估值及break even的進程;經這段升浪後,好些雲端股的估值已變得較為進取,若勢色不對要果斷走人

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  6. the long awaited correction of Tesla might have come

    Morgan Stanley drops Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to an Underweight rating from Equal-weight due to valuation, the overall risk-reward profile of the stock and risks with the China business.

    "Near-term momentum and sentiment around the stock is admittedly very strong, but we ultimately question the sustainability of the momentum," writes analyst Adam Jonas.

    Jonas thinks investors will get another crack in the future at buying shares of Tesla at a more reasonable valuation.

    Morgan Stanley adjusts its price target to $360 from $250 after missing out on the big run-up.

    Shares of Tesla are down 2.91% premarket to $503.40 after doubling in just over 90 days.

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  7. Further reduce TSLA
    Sell COUP
    Buy NNN (REITs)
    Add DDOG

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  8. Sell all DDOG
    Buy MSCI

    Be aware that SaaS reversed sharply from intraday high and narrowed gain for 2 back to back days. Momentum is weakening and has to be decisive, particularly for high volatile plays like DDOG

    Have to switch the strategy to adding more stable growth stocks, like REITs and MSCI

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  9. Sell all 3690 HK in view of looming SARS 2.0 risk

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  10. you sir今年表現神勇, 操作重現昔日風采.

    特斯拉應該是今年美股股王了.

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    1. 的確如是,很久未試過持續跑蠃指數,目前要繼續維持穩定表現。去年的表現實在太羞家,已痛下決心改善。此外,換了brokerage service provider,佣金低了也有助更決斷的買賣決定

      至於Tesla,很簡單地說,當一個夢開始有盈利支撐時,向上重估的空間可以很大。此外,Tesla不單是電動車,投資者也看上了他在自動駕駛的技術,以及已累積了的駕駛大數據可作為 machine learning的價值。

      TSLA近排強勢的股價已說明一切,目前要考慮的繼續加倉的策略,以及在年初三當晚收市後公佈季績,有否需要減持一些以控制風險

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    2. 睇番應該是29號晚收市後公佈季績

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  11. 的確買賣是再決斷了及多了momentum trading 的 consideration

    Facebook (FB)的股價表現不算很差,但和其他大型科技股相比明顯較為落後,故也選擇out了。大牛市中也只宜集中在最強勢的股份

    BYND也是因有素食類似肉的投資主題而不畏昨晚升了15%追入,即日也有數%的回報

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    1. 你今年的表現真值得鼓舞,獲益良多, 但為何選擇BYND?

      因為引入中國中產市場, 山林大火環保考慮, STARBUCK選用更多BYND的產品?

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    2. 表面上是強勁的momentum,而基本因素方面,全球暖化危機迫在眉睫,如Tesla的電動汽車以及 beyond meat的素食肉,這個環保消費大方向應該錯不了。bynd暫不覺有明顯competitor以及同類上市公司,財政上公司應該快要 breakeven. Starbuck deal是一個 breakthrough,可以預計類似合作模式陸續有來

      今年至今的確是出了一口氣,但不嫌其煩地說,要準備及執行一個take profit plan,保住利潤至緊要

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  12. add a bit TSLA and NVDA, enlarge the position of winners bit by bit

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  13. Sell AMD
    Add little AYX and SEDG

    The strong results of Intel (INTC) may be pulling money back from AMD to INTC

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  14. Sell MSCI and GOOGL last night before sleep. Seemed the the Wuhan Coronavirus is beginning to weigh on the Western market. Cash level now close to 20% as a pre caution measure

    Hope everyone stay safe and healthy in the Year of Rat

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  15. 好在周五己沽了一些貨,持貨比重減低了一些,風險管理模式啟動

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  16. 風險源頭在中國,我諗港股同A股大鑊好多。

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    1. That's for sure and fortunately we already sold all HK/China shares

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  17. Sell all NVDA - around 40% of revenue from China

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  18. Buy TEAM

    Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM) +9.8% reports Q2 beats with 37% Y/Y revenue growth. The company guides in-line Q3 revenue of $395-399M and downside EPS of $0.20 versus the $0.22 consensus.

    TEAM guides an upside FY20 with $1.59-1.6B in revenue and $1.03-1.09 EPS.

    Q2 revenue breakdown: Subscription, $228.7M; Maintenance, $116.9M; Perpetual License, $29.1M; Other, $34.1M.

    Cash flow from operations totaled $218.4M with $202M FCF.

    Atlassian added 5,003 new customers in the period, bringing the total up to 164,790.

    Atlassian (NASDAQ:TEAM): Q2 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.37 beats by $0.10; GAAP EPS of $0.49 beats by $0.51.

    Revenue of $408.72M (+36.7% Y/Y) beats by $19.29M.

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  19. SQ剛突破,可予留意。我昨天已買了一口。

    Square Cash app has room to raise fees, analyst says
    Jan. 28, 2020 9:12 AM ET|About: Square, Inc. (SQ)|By: Liz Kiesche, SA News Editor

    Square (NYSE:SQ) Cash app users would be willing to pay more than the current 1.5% fee to instantly transfer funds to a bank account, writes Macquarie analyst Dan Dolev.

    Square rises 1.1% in premarket trading.

    The average price users were willing to pay was 2.3%, according to a recent customer survey by Dolev.

    He estimates that raising the instant-deposit fee by 50 basis points "could result in $250M-$300M, or ~10% additional sales growth in 2021 versus consensus estimates."

    He rates Square at Outperform with a $105 price target.

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    1. 似乎買得不錯,請多分享股票交流

      對SQ 有些偏見,但會放下成見放入watchlist 的

      不過今天始終不想太冐進,武漢肺炎的風險還未settle,雖則正路來說對美國的打擊不致太重



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    2. 這單新聞可能是更有趣及能引來投資者憧憬的新聞,比特幣交收平台

      Square (NYSE:SQ) has won a patent for a payments network that would enable seamless transactions between crypto asset types and fiat currencies, Coindesk reports.

      The patent provides for a system that could let people holding different asset types transact in real time: "The present technology permits a first party to pay in any currency, while permitting the second party to be paid in any currency," according to the application.

      That could smooth the use of currencies like bitcoin (BTC-USD) for retail use - an application where few merchants can take payment methods that take too long to process amid wildly swinging values.

      The patent suggests the system could be extended to add support for asset classes including securities, derivatives or loans, Coindesk notes.


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  20. Buy back MSCI US, market seems stabilise a bit

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  21. Good results and guidance of Apple

    Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL): Q1 GAAP EPS of $4.99 beats by $0.45.

    Revenue of $91.82B (+8.9% Y/Y) beats by $3.41B.
    Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) +2.4% reports Q1 beats driven by strong iPhone and Wearables sales.

    Revenue breakdown: iPhone, $55.96B (consensus: $51.38B); iPad, $5.98B (consensus: $6.73B); Mac, $7.16B (consensus: $7.18B); Wearables, Home and Accessories, $10B (consensus: $9.89B); Services, $12.72B (consensus: $13.06B).

    Greater China revenue grew 3% Y/Y to $13.58B.

    Operating expenses totaled $9.6B.

    Q2 outlook: Revenue, $63-67B (consensus: $62.47B); Gross margin, 38-39% (consensus: 38.3%); Operating expenses, $9.6-9.7B (consensus: $9.31B.)

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  22. 這幾天的先沽出,後補回,拉勻反而令投資回報略為低一些。但這個可視作為風險管理的保險費

    美股昨晚的表現回穩,且在Apple季績良好帶動下今晚看升居多,投資者看來暫不太擔心武漢肺炎會衝擊西方經濟,但目前還未可放下戒備狀態

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  23. 回覆
    1. Cut loss BYND

      Not a good experience on this stock, failed trade within a short period of time, shouldn't touch it again in near future

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  24. Great results of TSLA and MSFT!

    Tesla(特斯拉)第二季盈利倒退25%至1.05億美元,剔除特殊項目後每股盈利為2.06美元,優於市場預期的1.72美元。收入從72.3億美元增至73.8億美元,同樣勝預期。

    Tesla上季交付量創新高,並預計今年將交付超過50萬輛,推動公司股價盤後飆升近12%,首次突破600美元大關。

    Tesla表示,於上海工廠正按預期進行生產,由於中國需求強勁,將增加Model 3的產量。同時本月已在加利福尼亞州的工廠已開始生產Model Y,並計劃於3月底提前交付。

    Tesla上季共交付11.2萬輛汽車,優於市場預期,目標今年交付量可輕鬆超過50萬輛,高於去年的36.75萬輛。


    微軟第二季盈利增長38%至116億美元,收入則上升14%至369億美元,兩者皆優於市場預期,主要受惠於Azure雲業務收入連續8個季度錄得增長。在業績公布後,微軟於盤後股價上升4%,報174.7美元。

    Azure上季收入增長62%,低於去年同期的76%,但高於首季的59%。微軟財務總監Amy Hood表示,市場對Azure的服務需求增加,當中包括運行應用程式的運算能力及數據存儲服務等產品。

    微軟又表示,包括Azure及基於雲端發展的軟件版本的收入達到125億美元,高於去年同期的90億美元,而毛利潤率亦由62%提升至67%。

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  25. 道期跌200點,唔知搞咩?美國科網股普遍業績優於預期,除了波音。

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    1. 西方國家暫時所受的直接影響的確不大,但若疫情擴大令中國要被鎖國或暫停國民上班,那確實會影響全球的製造業供應鏈。例如如剛公佈理想季績的Tesla,其新營運的上海model 3生產線也要暫停至少一星期

      原本Tesla及Microsoft公佈理想季績,對今晚美股很有期待;但今晚看來又要留意有否需要啟動risk management mode了,雖則對我的投資組合及美股整體而言仍不是太擔心

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  26. 回覆
    1. Sell NVDA, seems that chip stocks are more vulnerable to the wuhan virus

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    2. Sell COUP, as a pre-caution measure to raise cash amid weakening market

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