2021年2月3日星期三

美股增長股watchlist 估值增長數據

 













- 縱合了美股主要增長股的重點數據, 包括本人持股及各大blogger和熱門討論區的焦點股票(點圖放大看會更清楚內容)。很多增長股是以市值對營業額(price to sales)作估值,但此比率忽視了(i)利潤率(或至少gross margin)以及(ii)增長率。是故在這列表中的估值,除了 price/sales 外,還加上包括利潤率的 price to gross profit (抱歉打錯了不是gross profit/sales),以及再包含增長的 price to gross profit to growth(也打錯了不是gross profit/sales/growth)

- 把重要的三組parameters,分別是營業額增長、price to sales、以及 price to gross profit to growth中,排較前位置的股票列出來,並用不同顏色 highlight。淺藍色的公司(即price to gross profit to growth在1附近的公司)更值得留意,尤其是 revenue growth也有被黃色 highlight 的公司。即是計及利潤率和增長後,他們是估值相對吸引的股票,他們當中有幾隻是本人目前的增股。反之紅色的是估值增長比上相對不吸引的公司。

- 要留意目前美股是業績期,有些公司剛公佈20年業績有些還未公佈。等業績期後這個列表會在同一個基準上比較,會更具可比性。


35 則留言:

  1. 謝謝分享, 今年期待也是大勝的一年。

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    1. 始終比較基數高及去年表現太好,純玩美股的話,今年有20%至30%回報應該算不錯掛

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  2. Very useful information, thanks!

    It seems that SE, MELI, SQ, TDOC are still relatively
    "cheap".

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    1. Yes, and that's why I hold them. But bear in mind that the figures for TDOC is a bit inflated because of the LVGO acquisition last year. After the consolidation of LVGO, TDOC revenue will grow at 30% plus per year

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  3. 值得一提的是我的重倉股TSLA, 相對估值屬最貴之列。可以把其合理化的其 consumer brand franchise 以及 elon musk可值得的估值溢價、以及以很長線的五到十年看, Tesla仍有很明確的增長前景, 例如自動駕駛,汽車保險及太陽能等,要知道Tesla不單是自動車那麼簡單

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  4. PINS係唯一一隻全部有highlight喎~

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    1. 今晚會公佈業績,的確要留意,肯投機的不妨買入。Pinterest的社交網絡內容很依靠電子商貿,而Amazon剛公佈的業績己有很好的正面啟示

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    2. 果然業績不差

      Pinterest (NYSE:PINS) has risen 6.5% postmarket after beating expectations and logging strong user growth in its fourth-quarter earnings.
      In a quarter still affected by widespread lockdowns, Pinterest grew revenues by 76% to $706M - bringing its full-year revenue growth to 48% ($1.693B).
      Global monthly active users rose 37% to 459M.
      “We welcomed over 100M additional monthly active users to Pinterest in 2020, more than any other year in our history, and now we reach more than 450M monthly active users around the world," says CEO Ben Silbermann. “As we look to the future, our focus will continue to be delivering more inspiring and shoppable content and helping advertisers realize the value and positivity of our platform.”
      And the company swung to a GAAP profit of $207.8M, from a prior-year loss of $35.7M. Net income on a non-GAAP basis jumped to $294.3M from $76.9M.
      Revenue breakout: United States, $582M (up 67%); International, $123M (up 145%).
      ARPU breakout: Global ARPU was $1.57, up 29%. In the U.S., it rose 49% to $5.94; internationally, it rose 67% to $0.35.
      As for guidance, it said it was still navigating pandemic uncertainty but expected Q1 revenues to grow in the low-70% range.

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    3. 可惜PINS盤後冇上一個Quarter咁大升幅

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    4. 咁始終市場期望提高,再來一個strong beat 已很困難

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  5. PINS表現真的比想像中更好

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  6. Trading update:
    Sell all EH to take profit

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  7. HOW ABOUT PTON? 毛利下降, 而且交付問題嚴重。

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    1. 如果今天被洗倉的話的確可考慮趁低買入。KPI反映需求很強,只是因supply & logistics bottleneck 令供應追不上

      Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ:PTON) reports FQ2 connected fitness subscribers of 1.67M (+134% Y/Y) vs. the consensus mark of 1.645M.
      Digital subscriptions grew 472% to 625K vs. 561K expected
      Adjusted EBITDA came in at $116.9M vs. the guidance mark for ~70M and the consensus estimate of $77.7M.
      Looking ahead, Peloton sees revenue of $1.10B vs. $1.08B consensus and connected fitness subscribers of 1.98M. The revised annual forecast anticipates slow but steady progress in narrowing PTON's order-to-delivery windows over the remainder of the fiscal year.
      Shares of Peloton are down 3.77% in AH trading to $152.03 to dent the +24% 90-day return.

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    1. Buy PTON also, coz the underlying demand is strong and the negative share price reaction was due to supply constraint

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  9. Buy back ENPH on a string set of Q4 results

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  10. Rectify my error last night and add back some TDOC

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  11. Sell ENPH
    Buy BA
    As the vaccine is rolling out well, Covid recovery plays are worth a bet now again

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    1. 此留言已被作者移除。

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    2. Yu sir, still have ENPH after sold yesterday? I can't find any bad news on its fundamental for supporting selling reason. Instead, I added yesterday.

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    3. I sold all because share price failed to rally in spite of a strong financial results. I have to be less aggressive and cut stock exposure given that rising bond yield begins to weigh on tech growth stocks.

      Also bear in mind the revenue model of ENPH is not very compelling as it lacks recurring income stream and it sill rely on one off installation as major revenue source

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  12. Sudden climb in US bond yield sends a warning flash and triggers stock pullback
    Sell PTON
    Reduce TDOC ARKG
    Cash level raised to 15% plus

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