組合 year to date回報:4.7%
納指year to date年回報:8.2%
標普500 year to date年回報:11.1%
ARKK year to date 回報:(2.1%)
- 自2月中以來,投資回報再度遇上逆境。仿如回到19年的境況,投資回報難有寸進,並被指數拋離。要檢討的話不是著眼於選股及交易技巧,這兩個月的投資表現轉為大落後,原因很簡單,是因增長股經20年的超額回報後;在估值考量下,市場轉而追棒大市值科技股,疫情復甦股及所謂的舊經濟股等。
- 其實在投資策略上已作出對應,有適量減持增長股及分散投資至舊經濟股,所以year to date回報又比ARK基金以及美股成長型投資KOL的表現為佳。但問題是對舊經濟股不熟又玩不慣,曾買入的JPM, RIO, BA, CCL 等,拉勻是微蝕收場,只是能制約投資組合未致於太集中高增長股之上。反之舊經濟股中的REITs,消費股及公用股等,原來是領導界別但自己卻錯過。
- 美股的債券息率終見頂回落,但增長股表現仍是參差,只有個別股份回復強勢。長期而言的確增長股有很大機會跑贏,但當下市況仍是維持原本策略,心態上不要太進取以及在投資組合上作出某程度的平衡。
Add SE TWLO
回覆刪除Reduce COIN
刪除明明昨晚頭半段的升勢很好,但那知美國總統 Biden卻提出了向富人加capital gain tax的方向,投資組合即由大升轉為大跌。但見大部份持股仍守得住升勢,昨晚睡前只是再減持一些 NVDA
回覆刪除小弟都被COIN套牢了,SI亦然,該是時候有個了斷。跟他們說再見,好讓增持TSLA。😅
回覆刪除COIN的前景很有想像空間,只要比重不太高的話,應該可以捱下價罷?
刪除Buy back some UPST
回覆刪除Add back NVDA
刪除TSLA 季績後盤後跌逾2%,其中原因是季績欠太大驚喜,投資者嫌10億美金non gaap net profit的所謂earnings beat,有1億美金來自買賣bitcoin的利潤,盈利有水份之嫌。
回覆刪除的確扣除bitcoin 買賣利潤後1Q的盈利只是較去年第4季輕微增長。然而這個所謂的增長不如預期的季積,某程度上應是因第一季的seasonal factor影響以致相對較弱。我較為看重的汽車毛利率,其實輍去年第4季已有按季度改善
注意管理層關於FSD(full self driving,即自動駕駛)的update:
回覆刪除"Our team continues to focus on the V9 version of FSD City Streets beta, which will
soon become more widely available in the United States"
對比上季度對FSD的描述,今次管理層的update是近磅很多。FSD自動駕駛會是Tesla的未來又一個主要增長動力
*****
"our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision."
今次Tesla的業績最多只是中規中距,欠缺positive surprise ,視乎市場人仕怎解讀。然而,對比逾30%的portfolio weighting,以及投資多看重短期的基本因素,或有一需要把持股比重降低一些
回覆刪除Reduce TSLA
回覆刪除Add UPST
Buy SHOP on very strong set of 1Q results
回覆刪除Cut loss on COIN
刪除Sell AAPL also, not very worthwhile to bet before result announcement
刪除Ching, will you buy back AAPL ? I think it is hard to keep such growth rate.
回覆刪除的確錯失了Apple的earnings beat,是一個失策,究其原因是近日的手風不太順,所以更容易做錯decision
刪除如今日高位補回,值搏率未必很高,況且管理層表明,晶片短缺可能終會影響下半年的供應
我都係,aapl,amazn,nvda賣飛曬. 等利好出完回調再入
刪除Update yesterday:
回覆刪除Reduce TSLA UPST
Add SHOP
suffered another major setback last night, as rising US bond yield caused heavy sell off in growth stocks again
我睇指數如果5窮, 成長股都更跌多一波, you sir目前有多少cash? ytd如何? 我自己昨日把margin斬去, 考慮緊hold 20%, 及轉更多資金去crypto市場。
刪除目前差唔多fully invested,很慚愧地目前 ytd回落至只得微利
刪除但目前不少成長股仍在明確的上升走勢,例如CRWD SE NET等,只係波動較大,加上今年成長股不再獨當一面。但個別股份走勢未顯著轉差下,又不欲減持
Buy back AAPL
回覆刪除4月初至中的投資回報是不錯的,但下半月又再反覆下跌,到頭來月度回報仍是微蝕收場, 今年ytd 只降至微利。這個表現當然不滿意, 但目前這個成績仍是稍為優於其他以增長股為主力的投資組合
回覆刪除究其最主要原因不在於微觀的選股及買賣手法方面,納指自3月份的回升,太集中於Facebook, Amazon, Google等的大型股之上, 其他股份上升力度欠奉, 所謂的市寬欠佳。除非是主力數隻最大股,這兩,三個月跑輸指數是正常不過的事。
Growth stocks still performing very weak
回覆刪除Cut NVDA and TWLO
Tech sell off continues
回覆刪除Sell TWLO
Reduce CRWD
Reduce SQ also
刪除Buy NET
刪除Buy BHP has to add more exposure into old economy
回覆刪除Add back NVDA
刪除among base metal stocks, FCX may be a better choice
回覆刪除Thanks for bringing this out. The chart pattern looks bullish, I just added into shortlist
刪除Will you consider oil stocks as well , crude oil (USO)is just breaking out to new high
回覆刪除Probably not. Oil price is subject to too many factors and I had a bad luck playing oil stocks in the past decade
刪除Tech stocks still weak and Nasdaq reversed back into loss at midnight
回覆刪除TSLA triggered my stop price and I further cut position in TSLA
Cut loss NET
回覆刪除Reduce CRWD
Reduce SE
刪除Add back SQ because of robust 1Q results
回覆刪除Buy EXP to add exposure in building materials
Add back SE
刪除Rebound losing momentum,
刪除Cut loss on SHOP
why sell SHOP? its Q1 results is very good
回覆刪除Share price doesn’t react to this positive result is an alarming signal, in particular that the market doesn’t favor growth stocks at the moment. I am positive on SHOP but I have to limit my exposure on growth stocks, as they are clearly out of favor in the near term
刪除我也覺得TSLA要跌了,因為:
回覆刪除1.最近向上突破了Bollinger Bands
2.Trefis估值($450)遠低於現在的$672
3.最近RSI超買剛結束
類似這篇blog的下跌徵兆
https://slashtraders.com/tw/blog/stock-bearish-signals/
係整個增長股都下跌,我總算也有把比重調低,但科技股怎也打算留些貨底
刪除Sell MELI
回覆刪除At midnight
刪除Add EXP
Reduce SQ TSLA
Risk off.
回覆刪除應該係sector rotation多些
刪除目前好難玩
回覆刪除其實今年又不算特別難玩,只是投資者大都集中於成長股上,而過去兩個月則是價值股outperform
刪除雖然知道長線D high growth stock 會升返, 但睇住咁樣跌落黎,個心都會有D唔好受, 唔知YOU兄係點樣去做調節?
回覆刪除正如留語中的操作更新,這陣有增加現金及把部份持股調往傳統產業股,目前這兩者的比重共接近50%
刪除這一個月的投資表現的確明顯回落,但和其他以增長股為主的投資者相比,相對表現已算較好了
Very strong result of UPST, up 20% pre market. This stock is volatile, but a robust quarterly results is looking to propel its share price back on rally
回覆刪除Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) stock surges 16% in after-hours trading after the company boosts its 2021 revenue and contribution margin guidance.
Now sees 2021 revenue of $600M, up from its previous guidance of $500M and better than the $502.2M consensus.
Expects contribution margin of ~42% for the year vs. 41% previously.
Still expects 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin of ~10%.
UPST sees Q2 revenue of $150M-$160M, higher than the $117.1M consensus.
Expects Q2 contribution margin of 44% and adjusted EBITDA of $23M-$27M.
Q1 adjusted EPS of 22 cents beats the average analyst estimate of 15 cents and jumped from 5 cents in the year-ago quarter.
Q1 revenue of $121M rose 90% Y/Y and exceeded the average analyst estimate of $116.1M.
US CPI came stronger than expected, inflation is looming
回覆刪除Add XLF UPST
Sell AAPL
刪除Reduce TSLA NVDA
Continues to cut exposure in tech, increase weighting in old economy
之前把資金調往傳統產業股,減緩了投資回報的下跌。但昨晚尾段指數跌跌擴大,傳統產業股也守不住顯著下滑。
回覆刪除目前的現金比重近30%,已在相對很高水平。但昨晚道指的大跌,初步破壞了其上升走勢。若傳統產業股跟跌,未能發揮頂住投資回報作用的話,應要繼續執行撤離計劃。
通脹重臨是近期投資者的憂慮。繼昨晚公佈CPI後,今晚美國將公佈PPI(生產價格指數),若果此數據不是升很太多的話,有望為指數先行止血
Buy ROKU
回覆刪除Buy MSFT
刪除Add XLF
刪除Reduce TSLA SE
Growth stocks still performing very weak and has to continue cut exposure
Sell NVDA SQ
刪除走勢好可怕, 今日開市高追的, 恐怕都要止蝕, Tsla似是熊走勢, 唉, 今年真係不是投資成長股的時候。
回覆刪除根本是用大市值股托住指數
刪除已經把成長股的比重不斷降低,但仍損失慘重