2021年4月22日星期四

繼續苦戰

 
















組合 year to date回報:4.7%
納指year to date年回報:8.2%
標普500 year to date年回報:11.1%
ARKK year to date 回報:(2.1%)

-        2月中以來,投資回報再度遇上逆境。仿如回到19年的境況,投資回報難有寸進,並被指數拋離。要檢討的話不是著眼於選股及交易技巧,這兩個月的投資表現轉為大落後,原因很簡單,是因增長股經20年的超額回報後;在估值考量下,市場轉而追棒大市值科技股,疫情復甦股及所謂的舊經濟股等。

-        其實在投資策略上已作出對應,有適量減持增長股及分散投資至舊經濟股,所以year to date回報又比ARK基金以及美股成長型投資KOL的表現為佳。但問題是對舊經濟股不熟又玩不慣,曾買入的JPM, RIO, BA, CCL 等,拉勻是微蝕收場,只是能制約投資組合未致於太集中高增長股之上。反之舊經濟股中的REITs,消費股及公用股等,原來是領導界別但自己卻錯過。

-          美股的債券息率終見頂回落,但增長股表現仍是參差,只有個別股份回復強勢。長期而言的確增長股有很大機會跑贏,但當下市況仍是維持原本策略,心態上不要太進取以及在投資組合上作出某程度的平衡。




60 則留言:

  1. 明明昨晚頭半段的升勢很好,但那知美國總統 Biden卻提出了向富人加capital gain tax的方向,投資組合即由大升轉為大跌。但見大部份持股仍守得住升勢,昨晚睡前只是再減持一些 NVDA

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  2. 小弟都被COIN套牢了,SI亦然,該是時候有個了斷。跟他們說再見,好讓增持TSLA。😅

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    1. COIN的前景很有想像空間,只要比重不太高的話,應該可以捱下價罷?

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  3. TSLA 季績後盤後跌逾2%,其中原因是季績欠太大驚喜,投資者嫌10億美金non gaap net profit的所謂earnings beat,有1億美金來自買賣bitcoin的利潤,盈利有水份之嫌。

    的確扣除bitcoin 買賣利潤後1Q的盈利只是較去年第4季輕微增長。然而這個所謂的增長不如預期的季積,某程度上應是因第一季的seasonal factor影響以致相對較弱。我較為看重的汽車毛利率,其實輍去年第4季已有按季度改善

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  4. 注意管理層關於FSD(full self driving,即自動駕駛)的update:

    "Our team continues to focus on the V9 version of FSD City Streets beta, which will
    soon become more widely available in the United States"

    對比上季度對FSD的描述,今次管理層的update是近磅很多。FSD自動駕駛會是Tesla的未來又一個主要增長動力

    *****

    "our FSD team is fully focused on evolving to a vision-based autonomous system and we are nearly ready to switch the US market to Tesla Vision."

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  5. 今次Tesla的業績最多只是中規中距,欠缺positive surprise ,視乎市場人仕怎解讀。然而,對比逾30%的portfolio weighting,以及投資多看重短期的基本因素,或有一需要把持股比重降低一些

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  6. Buy SHOP on very strong set of 1Q results

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  7. Ching, will you buy back AAPL ? I think it is hard to keep such growth rate.

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    1. 的確錯失了Apple的earnings beat,是一個失策,究其原因是近日的手風不太順,所以更容易做錯decision

      如今日高位補回,值搏率未必很高,況且管理層表明,晶片短缺可能終會影響下半年的供應

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    2. 我都係,aapl,amazn,nvda賣飛曬. 等利好出完回調再入

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  8. Update yesterday:
    Reduce TSLA UPST
    Add SHOP

    suffered another major setback last night, as rising US bond yield caused heavy sell off in growth stocks again

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    1. 我睇指數如果5窮, 成長股都更跌多一波, you sir目前有多少cash? ytd如何? 我自己昨日把margin斬去, 考慮緊hold 20%, 及轉更多資金去crypto市場。

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    2. 目前差唔多fully invested,很慚愧地目前 ytd回落至只得微利

      但目前不少成長股仍在明確的上升走勢,例如CRWD SE NET等,只係波動較大,加上今年成長股不再獨當一面。但個別股份走勢未顯著轉差下,又不欲減持

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  9. 4月初至中的投資回報是不錯的,但下半月又再反覆下跌,到頭來月度回報仍是微蝕收場, 今年ytd 只降至微利。這個表現當然不滿意, 但目前這個成績仍是稍為優於其他以增長股為主力的投資組合

    究其最主要原因不在於微觀的選股及買賣手法方面,納指自3月份的回升,太集中於Facebook, Amazon, Google等的大型股之上, 其他股份上升力度欠奉, 所謂的市寬欠佳。除非是主力數隻最大股,這兩,三個月跑輸指數是正常不過的事。

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  10. Growth stocks still performing very weak

    Cut NVDA and TWLO

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  11. Tech sell off continues

    Sell TWLO
    Reduce CRWD

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  12. Buy BHP has to add more exposure into old economy

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  13. among base metal stocks, FCX may be a better choice

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    1. Thanks for bringing this out. The chart pattern looks bullish, I just added into shortlist

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  14. Will you consider oil stocks as well , crude oil (USO)is just breaking out to new high

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    1. Probably not. Oil price is subject to too many factors and I had a bad luck playing oil stocks in the past decade

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  15. Tech stocks still weak and Nasdaq reversed back into loss at midnight

    TSLA triggered my stop price and I further cut position in TSLA

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  16. Add back SQ because of robust 1Q results
    Buy EXP to add exposure in building materials

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    1. Share price doesn’t react to this positive result is an alarming signal, in particular that the market doesn’t favor growth stocks at the moment. I am positive on SHOP but I have to limit my exposure on growth stocks, as they are clearly out of favor in the near term

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  18. 我也覺得TSLA要跌了,因為:
    1.最近向上突破了Bollinger Bands
    2.Trefis估值($450)遠低於現在的$672
    3.最近RSI超買剛結束

    類似這篇blog的下跌徵兆
    https://slashtraders.com/tw/blog/stock-bearish-signals/

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    1. 係整個增長股都下跌,我總算也有把比重調低,但科技股怎也打算留些貨底

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    1. 其實今年又不算特別難玩,只是投資者大都集中於成長股上,而過去兩個月則是價值股outperform

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  20. 雖然知道長線D high growth stock 會升返, 但睇住咁樣跌落黎,個心都會有D唔好受, 唔知YOU兄係點樣去做調節?

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    1. 正如留語中的操作更新,這陣有增加現金及把部份持股調往傳統產業股,目前這兩者的比重共接近50%

      這一個月的投資表現的確明顯回落,但和其他以增長股為主的投資者相比,相對表現已算較好了

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  21. Very strong result of UPST, up 20% pre market. This stock is volatile, but a robust quarterly results is looking to propel its share price back on rally

    Upstart Holdings (NASDAQ:UPST) stock surges 16% in after-hours trading after the company boosts its 2021 revenue and contribution margin guidance.
    Now sees 2021 revenue of $600M, up from its previous guidance of $500M and better than the $502.2M consensus.
    Expects contribution margin of ~42% for the year vs. 41% previously.
    Still expects 2021 adjusted EBITDA margin of ~10%.
    UPST sees Q2 revenue of $150M-$160M, higher than the $117.1M consensus.
    Expects Q2 contribution margin of 44% and adjusted EBITDA of $23M-$27M.
    Q1 adjusted EPS of 22 cents beats the average analyst estimate of 15 cents and jumped from 5 cents in the year-ago quarter.
    Q1 revenue of $121M rose 90% Y/Y and exceeded the average analyst estimate of $116.1M.

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  22. US CPI came stronger than expected, inflation is looming

    Add XLF UPST

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    1. Sell AAPL
      Reduce TSLA NVDA

      Continues to cut exposure in tech, increase weighting in old economy

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  23. 之前把資金調往傳統產業股,減緩了投資回報的下跌。但昨晚尾段指數跌跌擴大,傳統產業股也守不住顯著下滑。

    目前的現金比重近30%,已在相對很高水平。但昨晚道指的大跌,初步破壞了其上升走勢。若傳統產業股跟跌,未能發揮頂住投資回報作用的話,應要繼續執行撤離計劃。

    通脹重臨是近期投資者的憂慮。繼昨晚公佈CPI後,今晚美國將公佈PPI(生產價格指數),若果此數據不是升很太多的話,有望為指數先行止血

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  24. 走勢好可怕, 今日開市高追的, 恐怕都要止蝕, Tsla似是熊走勢, 唉, 今年真係不是投資成長股的時候。

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    1. 根本是用大市值股托住指數

      已經把成長股的比重不斷降低,但仍損失慘重

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