2019年12月30日星期一

部署2020

目前組合:

Apple (AAPL US) 12.9%
Tesla (TSLA US) 9.0%
MasterCard (MA US) 8.7%
Meituan Dianping (3690 HK) 8.3%
Paycom (PAYC US) 7.8%
Microsoft (MSFT US) 7.5%
Nvidia (NVDA US) 7.5%
Intuitive Surgical (ISRG US) 6.9%
Amzaon (AMZN US) 6.9%
Guardant Health (GH US) 6.2%
Facebook (FB US) 6.0%
ASML (ASML US) 4.7%
Aoyuan (3883 HK) 4.3%
A Living (3319 HK) 4.1%

組合 year to date回報:(14.7)%
標普500 year to date年回報:29.2%
恆指 year to date 回報:10.2%

- 在告別SaaS相關高增長股,及重新集中在中大市值股份後,終回復正常水準發揮。自12月中後很輕易地跑贏指數。的確19年是上了很沉重一課,這個修正為時已晚。美股指數一再創歷新高,但資金是比以前更選擇性吸納地具明顯競爭優勢的龍頭股之上,反之對仍在投資期的新冒起企業仍是持保留態度

- 始終今個月指數的升幅相當可觀,好些股份升得遍離50天線太多,便作了一些減持,尤其是半導體相關股份。在5G及大數據下,半導體的超級周期有可能延續至明年。AMD的賣點是在產品開發上有突破,開始領前Intel及搶去其 的market share。NVIDIA的賣點是在大數據、AI、自動駕駛、及5G之上,來自數據中心的需求恢復上升,若市場把公司看成是software oriented company的話估值有往上上調空間

- Tesla居然成了第二大持股。上海廠房投產似乎解決了公司在生產上的bottleneck、Model 3推出後消費者的評價似乎相當好。Tesla不單是電動汽車,電池技術、自動駕駛的大數據及軟件也是其賣點。到目前為止,不見其他汽車生產商在電池技術上可追上Tesla。一旦公司克服了技術及生產上的瓶頸位,向上爆發空間可以很大。若有一個明確的止賺/止蝕策略,是有意慾再加碼

- 資金集中在龍頭及大市值股的趨勢暫未見改變。中小型市值增長股中,目前還可以放入watchlist的應只有Shopify(SHOP),Trade Desk(TTD),及Paycom(PAYC)。而Alphabet(GOOGL)換了CEO後,也會關注會否因提高透明度及more investor friendly而提升估值的機會

- 要更看重風險管理,之前在這地方一直做得不夠。7%或10%的止蝕其實set得太過寬鬆,以後要絶大部分情況下3%以內止蝕沽出。假如每個trade的success fail rate是50%/50%,失敗的是控制在3%之內,而成功的平均約10%回報,長期roll over下去已可有不錯回報。再者,只要在基本面上及買入點上picky一些,觸及此3%沽出點的機會其實不高

- 此外,對投資組合內持續under perform的股票不應給予太大容忍度。在牛市中買中大升股並不難,但往往忽略落後股拖累投資組合回報。給予個股太多時間反映其基本面是要付出機會成本。要引入更多momentum trading思維,要求每隻持股在以周計的範圍內都要優於指數表現

- 通常1月份股市尤其是美股會有季度性的好表現。要把握年初的機會做得進取一些,並在3/4月時適量減持獲利

57 則留言:

  1. Sell GH PAYC US
    Reduce NVDA TSLA US

    以50天線 above %的確是一個好的沽出指標,周五己沽出了一些。今天美股早段高beta股跌勢較急,未能把握最佳時機沽出。所以對很多己進入沽出範圍的股票來說還是先設定觸發沽出盤會較適合

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    1. TSLA跌幅顯著收窄,彈弓手及認錯先補回Tesla

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  2. very positive review on Tesla Model 3

    https://medium.com/@vgod/tesla-model-3-%E4%B8%80%E9%80%B1%E5%B9%B4%E5%BF%83%E5%BE%97-8b768681263e

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  3. My decision to quit NFLX last week may be right. Stiff competition for media content is still a risk for the Company

    'Friends' bids farewell to Netflix

    Beginning today, the hit '90s sitcom, which has lived on the Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) since 2015, will no longer be available on the streaming service.

    In fact, the series was Netflix's second most-streamed show in 2018, according to data from Nielsen.

    WarnerMedia (NYSE:T) outbid Netflix, to the tune of around $400M-$500M, for the rights to 'Friends' this past year, and all 236 episodes will be available on HBO Max when it launches this May.

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  4. also add a bit TSLA

    Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) says it produced almost 105K vehicles in Q4 and delivered ~112K vehicles to top the consensus mark of 106.1K.

    The deliveries count for the quarter included 92,550 Model 3 cars and 19,450 Model S and X vehicles.

    The company says it continues to focus on expanding production in both the U.S. and at the newly launched facility in Shanghai, which has demonstrated production run-rate capability of greater than 3K units per week.

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    1. very good trend, thank you! This is my top 1 holding now.

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    2. that's fine as long as you have an exit plan and stay discipline to it. TSLA is still a high risk high return stock

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    1. 始終不能完全抺去SaaS曾長股,COUP已有 non GAAP盈利,早前季績大幅優於預期及提升 guidance。走勢波幅收窄及即即將破頂

      至於選擇沽出ISRG以讓出Cash position,只是因相對走勢較弱,況且整個醫療 sector是弱於指數走勢

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  6. Buy GOOGL
    Add COUP

    The market is not that bad and software stocks are gathering momentum

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  7. Buy PAYC
    Add AMZN
    Sell TSM
    Sell ASML

    Follow sector momentem, trim semiconductor stocks, add software stocks

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  8. Sell 3883 HK, as China properties shares are weakening in momentum

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  9. 昨晚買進CRM 因見突破了一整年的橫行,好些其他SaaS股也有轉強及作勢突破跡象,不過始終這類股波幅大,我仍是持多隻(CRM,ADBE,SHOP,PAYC,COUP,NOW)並限制總占比在10%左右

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    1. 似乎買入的時機不錯。我目前重新買入的saas股以要錄得盈利為上,計有 coup, adbe, payc等。您的saas股也符合這準則,除了shop以外,但shopify的個性化電商saas有能力成為Amazon的另一主要e commerce媒介,也很有憧憬的空間

      Johnson另外的90%買了些什麼?

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  10. 20% 港股
    20% 龍頭科技 ( MSFT, GOOG, AMZN, AAPL)
    10% 電子支付 ( MA, V, GPN )
    10% 壟斷式專業服務 ( SPGI, MSCI, MCO)
    10% SaaS
    15% 其他
    15% 現金

    目前保有較多現金主要考慮是美股已持續上升了3個月而幾乎冇調整,黎緊有機會先進入一段整固回氣期

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    1. 1月份通常是seasonal strong 月份,應不用太擔心短期見頂掛,反而3及4月出現調整的機會大些

      美股的投資種類真多,我才剛知道原來Moody及S&P 也是上市公司

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    2. 是的,SPGI,MCO,MSCI 都屬業務穩定增長,股價長期上升趨勢且波動較低,令人持有得相當安心,所以已持有好幾年了

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  11. 買入AYX

    目前己用了些overdraft,這方面要控制住,不可長期維持在槓杆狀態

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  12. 今轉最遺憾是走漏了TSLA,YOU兄走過又迅速買回,決斷快而準 :)

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    1. 這個也多得林兄早前的留言提醒︿︿

      目前正致力從去年的災難性失誤回復過來,其中一個要點是要更注重中短期股價動力

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    2. 之前有小量再加注Tesla,目前portfolio佔比12%,仍是第二大持股。現在回看,只要有stop gain機制,一旦買中這些爆升型公司,其實可每天加一小注,把position size繼續提高的

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    3. 我一直也留意你的,謝謝你。大多數買賣也非常好。
      但我發覺YOU SIR有時捉到鹿脫不到角,不要介意,例如買到藥明生物,雅生活服務,Shopify,可能同我一樣怕突然大跌,見高位橫行便放了, 之後又突破展開升浪。往往捉不到突破果一下買回。如果買入時注碼較少,是否能改善怕因太重倉無故大跌而急於主動式止賺呢? 我心中也是有此疑問, 所以最後除TELSA大注外, 其他分散到15隻股, 感覺較輕鬆。

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    4. you sir分注買非常明智, 原理就是點解香港人有幾層物業都不怕, 因為他們有利潤在手, 辣招前一間一間地分注買, 同樣買股也一樣, $310的TELSA已無成本, 溝上不溝落, 利潤在手心理上較易駕馭,類似SAUL及美股軍師, 最終放長線釣大魚。

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    5. 多謝去年低潮時期仍有捧場。自去年底起,投資表現已回復輕易跑羸指數。但要注意風險管理,在跌市時能保住利潤才是長期跑羸指數關鍵要點

      您這個問題可分多方面回應。總會遇到沽出股票後其股價繼續上升,但我無為個別股票走寶而太感到可惜。美股的科技龍頭Facebook, Microsoft, Apple, Amazon, Alphabet, Nvidia etc,再加Master Card,還未計高風險的Tesla。每隻佔比7%至12%,己可佔去portfolio的大半。雅生活服務目前看來不是差的中資股,但和上述的美股龍頭公司比,計及估值及risk reward profile,我寧願集中在美股的龍頭公司

      我目前主力美股,港股目前只有美團一隻。不代表現階段我不看好港股,有些如700,1299及388等我是睇好的。只是能力圈問題實在無時間應付那麼多股票,總要作出取捨,對我來說portfolio內有10至15隻股票較為適合

      沽出雅生活服務,是其年初見股價顯著落後指數,因momentum trading的考慮而沽出。其後見股價升破沽出價也無補回,因資金己用在年初繼續加碼美股了,況且我又不算特別看好物管股

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    6. 牛市中大部份股票是上升的,但不可能賺盡每一隻股票的升浪,總要有些取捨

      Shopify近排的走勢不俗,之前沽出不是正確的決定,但公司始終未有錄得盈利,所以未能放心忍受波幅

      藥明生物是中國頂尖的醫藥公司,去年12月初沽出的確不是一個好的決定。原因是中國醫藥行業的降價風險太高,擔心最終仍會影響到醫藥的研發支出,在政策風險的擔憂下造成了這個做得不好的沽出決定

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    7. 我認為分散注碼太散無意思,佔portfolio 得3%至4%對提升投資組合回報沒有顯著幫助。其實如果買中有economic moat,加盈利增長動力,再加股價走勢具動力的公司;除非出現了系統性風險,否則無故突然大跌的機會實在不大。去年選股的失敗,在於只看重revenue growth,而無睇profitability

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    8. 此留言已被作者移除。

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    9. 我見散戶兄個倉,除首位比重佔6%,其餘首十大比重股票也只介乎1-3%之間,但去年散戶兄回報高達31%,所以分散注碼一樣有機會達到高回報的。

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    10. 誰是散戶兄?

      每個人有不同的方式,也未必適合每一個人。但對我而言,要管理多於15隻持股會很吃力

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    11. 其實看怎個分散法,如是什麼Industries或概念都包羅萬有,的確是很難大幅跑贏指數,因組合本身已指數化,如股份數目雖多但只集中在數個Industries或概念,則仍有機會可以較好跑贏大市,我就是採用后者,因對自己的選股能力及信心不足夠

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    12. 我去年回報也達35%,看似很高但其實也只是跑贏S&P500 些許,有段時間因較集中SaaS股,高峰值回報曾高達50%多,所以要取得大幅跑贏指數,始終還是需要集中持股

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    13. 去年市況其實並非四平八穩,受貿易戰及本地影響,其實好容易會被震出震入,能長持重倉到年尾殊不容易。

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    14. 是的,我的回報很大部份是在去年1-4月的easy market中取得的

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  13. Add AYX US

    另定下了部份 TSLA的限價沽出盤,睇下今晚會否觸及而需要部份獲利吐現

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    1. Sell ADBE US

      the stock is very fine, but I have to keep disciplined and cannot let my overdraft level too high. So I have to offload a relative laggard among today's big rally

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  14. 可留意MDB,我認為NoSQL比其他SaaS有很大的幻想空間, 而且今日走勢不尋常地強, 可能會展開一波升浪。

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    1. 這隻暫時 pass 了。經去年的教訓後,無盈利的公司(即使non GAAP也算數)較難會consider

      NoSQL理論上很有前景,但公司剛過去的季績收入增長放慢,虧損未見顯著收窄,加上公司剛公佈issue convertible bonds;這次回升可能是升市後期轉炒作落後股

      經去年的教訓,不會太刻意追求太爆炸性的升幅,今次買中TSLA是有些可遇不可求。買賣FAND檔次的領導股,再改善買賣技巧,長期而言己可取得很好回報

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  15. 又係每次炒高後大股東又再減持

    藥明生物(02269.HK)公布,公司其中一名控股股東Biologics Holdings配售6,080萬股現有股份,佔已發行股本4.69%,每股配售價為96.05元(較昨收市價103.2元折讓6.9%),套現約58.4億元。

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  16. Sell AMZN US

    Could not tolerate any stock showing not enough momentum during such a bull rally. AMZN is a clear laggard to other Internet giant including FB, GOOGL, and MSFT

    Also set stop order to reduce TSLA again, see if it could be triggered tonight

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    1. Also Sell AMD, be a bit more cautious after such a strong start to 2020

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    2. Also set stop order to reduce AAPL before sleep

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    1. Seems some breakthrough in automatous driving

      Israel's Ministry of Transport and Road Safety has decided to ground Tesla's (NASDAQ:TSLA) Autopilot, the self-driving system installed in all of the company’s vehicles.

      Autonomous driving is still not approved in Israel, while a series of fatal accidents involving Tesla cars over the past few years has ignited a federal investigation in the U.S.

      It was only last week that Tesla reportedly leased a 2,000-square-meter showroom in Tel Aviv, though it continues to maintain a pop-up shop at the city's Ramat Aviv Mall.

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    2. The latest push higher for Tesla (TSLA +4.6%) follows positive comments this morning from Oppenheimer.

      "We believe TSLA has key advantages in powertrain design, battery technology, ADAS fleet size, roadmap to energy independence offerings, and consumer enthusiasm that can translate into material operating leverage, share gains, and market disruption as renewables and autonomy trends accelerate. We expect continued share volatility while raising our earnings multiple to reflect higher levels of AI/Disruptor characteristics, yielding a $612 PT."

      "With 600K-plus vehicles on the road collecting data for its L4/L5 ADAS system, we see the fleet as a critical advantage on top of its leading vehicle architecture and operating system. We believe successfully managing corner cases will prove essential in commercialization and TSLA's advantaged data position is a crucial lever to that end."

      The new PT applies a 30X multiple to Oppenheimer's 2024 EPS estimate of $28.67, discounted three years at 12%. "Our expanded multiple captures TSLA's leading technology differentiation and incremental growth potential," writes analyst Colin Rusch. The average sell-side rating on TSLA is still at $353.42.

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  18. SaaS 股又再度熱炒,連沉淪已久的ZS及MDB都變氣勢如洪

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    1. I never doubt the long term growth theme of these two companies, but in the medium term they might have faced some up and downs

      That's why the entry time is important. I entered these two stocks when their bull run was running out of steam last year. I focused too much on their long term prospect and ignored medium term market signals. When looking back, the investment style of US SaaS KOL Saul cannot work on everybody

      I don't regret too much on missing these 2 stocks. Putting positive bias aside, I find they registered slowing revenue growth, while financial loss remained meaningful, compared to other SaaS stocks I bought recently

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  19. Test buy CRWD; revenue still near 90% you growth, net loss significantly narrowing, turning into positive free cash flow

    for price trend, it's turning a base for breakthrough

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