| Tesla (TSLA US) | 18.3% |
| Microsoft (MSFT US) | 12.0% |
| Crowdstrike (CRWD US) | 11.6% |
| Datadog (DDOG US) | 11.1% |
| MSCI (MSCI US) | 8.9% |
| Alteryx (AYX US) | 8.3% |
| Nvidia (NVDA US) | 6.6% |
| AMD (AMD US) | 5.9% |
| Apple (AAPL US) | 5.2% |
| Livongo Health (LVGO US) | 5.1% |
| Cash | 6.9% |
組合 year to date回報：15.1%
標普500 year to date年回報：(12.2%)
納指year to date年回報：(3.8%)
恆指 year to date 回報：(15.5%)
- 這兩週的投資表現絕對是喜出望外，自重拾進攻模式後，4月初以來再經歷非常好的return path。整體環境仍甚具挑戰性，但如能捉到 Cloud，work at/stay at home,以及遙距醫療這些大主題，自3月底的反彈取得可觀回報並不困難。反之 financial, 能源等舊經濟主題，雖則估值低及走勢落後，偶爾搏反彈或有一、兩天的高回報，但拉勻來說，risk reward profile 絕不化算
- 目前的宏觀環境及geopolitical 及有很多不明朗因素，但觀看上周五美股波幅指數 VIX 大跌逾13%跌回40以下，目前仍傾向相信市場訊號持看好立場
- 兩隻 SaaS 股 Crowdstrike 及 Datadog 不經不覺在不斷增持下，成為第三、四大持股。原本對這公司的信心不是太大，但美股討論區有很多資深投資者對此兩公司很大信心，且公司在高營收增長(80% 以上)之餘，更己進入了non GAAP 有盈利的階段
- 至於 Microsoft，則明顯是組合的中流抵柱，有著降低投資組合beta 值（波幅）的作用。至於Tesla，利好消息其實仍很多，中國的廠房己全面復產，Model 3在中國的反應也很好，而新推出的ModelY全球而言也有很好的評價；有分析指因武漢肺炎，拖慢了其他車廠在電動汽車R&D的後腳，故對Tesla 反而有利。Tesla 會於29日公佈季績
- 關於近日原油ETF 的苦主案，有感而發投資盡量要做在能力圏以內的事情，影響原油價格的變數實在太多，再加ETF 的條款很多潛在風險也可能未有披露。反之，目前投資組合內的公司，要有基本的理解及掌握並不太困難。目前也越認同投資貴精不貴多的道理，這大半年來買賣的來來去去都是那一批公司，只是於買賣技巧及策略上仍要鑽研
- 較遺憾的是未有全面捕捉e commerce的行情，Amazon買了一轉但很快沽出了。Shopify 早前在高位主動獲利套現，當時股價己高逾50天線近30%，沽出也是合理動作，但沽出後股價繼續上升。以business model 以言，提供個性化商貿平台的Shopify應較大眾化的Amazon更有增長動力，會繼續是重點watchlist裏面
- AYX的走勢相對較弱，其中原因是有劵商調低評級，認為疫情對公司的短期銷售會構成相對明顯影響，而公司是從事數據分析而不是目前熱門的SaaS。不擔心公司的核心競爭力，惟若相對弱勢持續的話或會減持。此外，投資者也預期此公司會是大型科技企業的收購對象
- portfolio組成的大方向應不會太大改變，武漢肺炎後的投資主題及大趨勢明確，不用貪品一時三刻的表現便宜而追落後。反而經4月份的大幅反彈過後，5月份在心態上宜稍為保守一點
BLOG主有冇試過計番, 如果你無視肺炎問題唔做任何TRADE, 其實YTD同而家比係贏定輸?
回覆刪除其實buy and hold 的話，ytd回報應會好一些。但這個不是情願一切不做的借口，如果完全buy and hold的話，自高位回落的幅度可達30%至40%，當中要負擔的心理壓力很大。況且今次危機是十多年來最嚴重的危機，自3月底的大幅反彈也有些幸運成份，這個反彈幅度不是應份的
刪除如早前文章檢討所言，在2月中美股見頂回落時，很多沽出decision是正確的。但於3月初跌浪後期時，仍有地方可以做得好些
的確，有3月底市況開始企穩，但走勢仍波動時，重新大手買入但指數仍波動，當時的心理壓力是較大的
就算buy and hold的回報率更好， 如果重來一次， 我想還是應該做點什麼， 畢竟我們很難確定自己的選股完全沒有問題。 從控制風險的角度出發， 盡量將組合的YTD回落程度控制在一定範圍內， 哪怕付出沽出未來的大牛股， 也是值得的， 因沽出的牛股可以隨時買回來， 但組合回報率回落太多的話， 心理壓力巨大之餘， 買賣決定也會受到很多限制。 哪怕是再優質的股票， 我們也不知道資金未來是不是會繼續青睞， 而期間大幅回落導致的賬面損失是實實在在看得到的。 不要說時間總會讓價值顯現的， 看看港股裏有多少質素還不錯的股票長期不升的， 資金不肯流入， 再好的股票也是沒用， 而市場口味可能長期不變， 也可能隨時變化。
刪除多謝chan sir 的繼續解說及補充,的確若一直buy and hold的話,最擔心是跌至最低位時抵受不了壓力而做了明燈全數沽出。我認為可把ytd回報為負數設定為一個重要的warning signal
刪除陳sir也承認於宏觀市況變化時轉身不夠快,但同時間陳sir於選股及sector 配值時遠遠補足了此缺點,我也很欣賞陳sir在選股及板塊配置的思維。對於包括我的很多投資者來說,單靠選股及板塊配置,而不作整體減持去應對武漢肺炎跌市,並不可取,當中要面對的心理壓力也很大
1. 完全認同適合自己既投資方法先係最岩.
刪除2. 小弟而家仲o係SAUL STYLE (BUY AND HOLD UNTIL STORY CHANGE, AND FULL INVESTED IN MARKET) 與 一般投資者 (跟市調整組合/現金比)之間遊走緊.
今次肺炎算係一個幾特別既情形, 見到SAUL STYLE去到今日係唔會輸俾出出入入既人. 所以好奇問下BLOG主哈哈.
Saul 其實不是單單buy and hold,他一年來持股也有頗大的變化,但都是fundamental driven,完全不睇圖且不理會如武漢肺炎等宏觀事件
刪除但要採用他那一套並不容易,也不適合每個人,我去年是錯誤地跟隨他的方向及選股,以至投資表現大為失準。今年採用以往方法,加上作出一些優化,投資表現才大有改善
首先,您的選股要很準及對公司的基本面很有把握和信心。第二,即使您選對股票,要完全不理股價及走勢波動坐下去,當中要對公司基本面的判斷很有信心。例如他大力看好及重倉的DDOG,在上市初期我也有跟他買,但很難忍受當中股價的波幅而被震走,直至這一個月,股價波幅收窄及升勢明確,我才坐很安心
Saul 的portfolio 的確表現很出色,但portfolio的個股表現可以差異很大,若把他的那一套跟D唔跟D,可能反會拖累您的投資表現
YOU sir 今年表現實在神勇！
回覆刪除的確解決了一些問題後,這半年的投資表現好了很多,我也有信心可持續下去
刪除美股討論區裏較我表現佳的鬼佬大不乏人,都是抓著雲端這個大主題,但我不會太強求比較,如我們去年的討論,太集中及重注在中小型SaaS公司上也不是很合適的做法
我也買入了TSLA，緊抱You sir大腿!=]
刪除兄台過獎了,我的TSLA只得您的幾個百分點
刪除無容置疑我是看好TSLA,但始終不敢如兄台那麼重注。諗兄除了宏觀經濟外,我想不到TSLA 有什麼特別的風險, 其他汽車廠要在電動車及driving software 要趕上TESLA絶不容易,且以長線角度看TESLA的未來不止電動車那麼簡單
開始投資美股半年, 想知道邊D美股討論區較值得注意?
回覆刪除Jacky
Saul investment discussion 的英文討論很高質及fundamental driven,但只講雲端及SaaS相關股份
刪除中文討論區的話,美股投資紀錄 及 貓與招財貓們的成長美股筆記&討論區 這兩個facebook group 我較為推介,都是台灣的社群
thanks, 會仔細研究下啲討論
回覆刪除Jacky
TSLA升了=] 師兄fat fat。
回覆刪除btw, 小弟更新了網址。
ching all in TSLA仲轉埋網頁
刪除仲諗住可以睇下你係港股既交易添
Market weakens
回覆刪除Sell AYX US
Reduce MSFT US
Add a bit NVDA US
刪除昨晚科技股獲利回吐,而靠舊經濟股金融及能源支撐美股指數。昨晚portfolio 跌2.5%,但這一周的表現仍有很好的回報。
回覆刪除的確一些受惠於武漢肺炎的互聯網公司升勢不繼,而近月底也會有機構性投資者先行獲利吐現高增長高beta股份。此外,不少持股也近季績公佈而要多加注意。
ching睇唔睇下$NAT, 如果油價近半年都低迷, 油輪股應該唔錯
刪除多謝介紹，但是玩這些周期股，我都是輸多贏少居多
刪除Add MSCI
回覆刪除Buy BEP
Put some money back into old economy stocks. BEP is an alternative energy generator with attractive dividend yield.
The 1Q results of MSCI looks assuring. Yesterday's sell off was more like a profit taking
QQQ YTD 回報重回正數，但不少傳統經濟股還在-30%以上水平，傳統股可能還有不俗追落后空間
回覆刪除對，但是始終對買賣這些股票的信心不夠及往績不好。或許買入壟斷性的金融服務企業如 MA, MSCI, MCO等可作為一個替代
刪除Yet take a note on the monthly chart which reflect the longer term trend. After the April rally, NASDAQ is still on course of a solid long term bull run
刪除However, S&P and Dow Jones, which have more component of old economy like financials and energy, are looking more like a bear market rebound. This difference is telling
回覆刪除Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) followed ups its profitable Q1 with a confident tone on the earnings call, despite the impact of the pandemic.
Elon Musk said Tesla is putting pedal to the metal with new products, highlighting the Model Y in particular.
He also highlighted the 400-mile "true range" of the Model S.
Musk said production costs in Shanghai are dropping and Model 3 prices in China will be dropped later this week. The company sees more potential to improve margins in China as the supply chain is improved and localized.
CFO Zach Kirkhorn stated the expiration of some EV federal incentives on its orders didn't hurt demand, with Tesla ending the quarter with its "highest ever" backlog. Kirkhorn also reaffirmed that the company has enough liquidity to go ahead with important projects, although the Tesla Semi launch has been pushed back to 2021.
Looking forward as usual, Musk says he is looking forward to being a global manufacturer in North America, China and Europe with capacity of over 1M cars next year.
Tesla expects to hold its Battery Day event in California or Texas (Giga?) in May.
Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) is up 5.28% after posting higher automotive revenue than anticipated and recording a Q1 profit.
刪除Margins also topped expectations, with automotive margin arriving at 25.5% of sales and GAAP gross margin reported at 20.6% vs 17.5% consensus.
Operating free cash flow less capex was -$895M during the quarter due to inventory growth. That mark could be a conversation starter.
Tesla says the Gigafactory Shanghai saw further volume growth, which resulted in a material improvement in margins of locally made Model 3 vehicles. The EV automaker also says the Model Y contributed to profits, which is the first time in its history that a new product has been profitable in its first quarter. Model Y deliveries from Gigafactory Berlin are scheduled for 2021.
Tesla isn't issuing any near-term guidance due to the pandemic. "While near-term profit guidance is currently on hold, we believe we will achieve industry leading operating margins and profitability with capacity expansion and localization plans underway," notes the company.
Very good results of TESLA and it was up nearly 10% aftermarket. The question is do I dare to add more as TSLA already accounts for 20% of my portfolio? And the strategy of adding more share?
刪除Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $1.24 beats by $1.45; GAAP EPS of $0.09 beats by $1.75.
Revenue of $5.99B (+31.9% Y/Y) beats by $140M.
Tesla says it produced 102,672 vehicles and delivered 88,496 vehicles to mark its best Q1 ever.
Automotive gross margin came in at 25.5% of sales vs. 22.5% in Q4 and 20.2% a year ago.
MSFT reported solid results and guidance, so did Facebook and GOOGL. The Internet stocks were so far resilient from the CCP virus
回覆刪除"Minimal" COVID-19 impact - Microsoft gains after FQ3 beats
"COVID-19 had minimal net impact on the total company revenue," says Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT), reporting a fiscal Q3 beat. Shares are up 2.5% after hours.
Revenue breakdown: Productivity and Business Processes, $11.7B (consensus: $11.53B); Intelligent Cloud, $12.3B (consensus: $11.79B); More Personal Computing, $11B (consensus: $10.46B; withdrawn guidance: $10.75-11.15B)
Intelligent Cloud featured a 59% Y/Y Azure revenue growth (61% in constant currency) compared to the 62% growth in Q2. Enterprise Services grew 6%.
For More Personal Computing, Windows OEM was flat on the year and Surface devices grew 1%.
In Productivity and Business, Office 365 Commercial revenue grew 25%. Office Consumer products and cloud services increased 15%.
The company repurchased $9.9B worth of stock in FQ3, up 33% from a year ago.
Add back a bit MSFT on very solid Q3 results
回覆刪除不错的美国股票电报频道
回覆刪除https://t.me/mgstock
https://t.me/s/mgstock
周五我只沽出 AMD。指數大跌，但其餘持股沒有跌破 21 day EMA，甚至 8 day EMA，所以周五並無很進取的減持
回覆刪除上周後段的美股市況雖差，且環球新症略為回升；但觀察到VIX在指數大跌時只升9%，且仍低於警戒線水平。且高息企業債ETF並未如3月初暴跌的情況，經4月份的大升後，的確要審慎一些，但目前未到要很risk averse 的程度。目前現金比重提升至約13%
Buy little SDGR to begin building position, not much action tonight and still in cautious mode
回覆刪除Add MSCI and NVDA
回覆刪除Add little bit CRWD and SDGR, just piling up on the current holdings
回覆刪除