2020年5月11日星期一

牛氣沖天

目前組合:

Tesla (TSLA US) 20.8%
Crowdstrike (CRWD US) 13.0%
MSCI (MSCI US) 12.7%
Datadog (DDOG US) 12.7%
Nvidia (NVDA US) 10.6%
Microsoft (MSFT US) 9.0%
Livongo Health (LVGO US) 6.2%
Apple (AAPL US) 5.2%
Brookfield Renewable (BEP US) 5.0%
Schrödinger (SDGR US) 4.1%
Cash 0.8%

組合 year to date回報:25.1%
標普500 year to date年回報:(9.3%)
納指year to date年回報:1.7%
恆指 year to date 回報:(14.0%)

- 目前投資世界的確是更兩極化,舊經濟股份如能源、金融、航空、旅遊等還在武漢肺炎的困境中苦苦掙扎。但以雲端為首的科技股的升浪更趨強勢,好些如AMZN, NFLX, SHOP, DDOG等己相繼再創歷史新高。2月中至3月中跌浪無疑很具震撼性、但自3月底的反彈也好得有點令人難以置信。

- 目前y-t-d 回報己回復至很接近2月中27.7%的高位。在3月底至4月初反彈走勢開始確立時,重新買入股票但大盤走勢仍波動,的確心理壓力較大。但至4月初回升走勢趨於明顯時,集中買入具信心的股份上,追回至目前水平又著實不是太難。

- 這一個月來的手風很順手,但y-t-d 回報回復至這個水平時,不應再進取。尤其是手頭上不少股份已進入高於50天線幅度的警戒水平上(10%-15% plus for big cap/ 20% to 30% plus mid/small cap),適時把部份持貨高位獲利套現,並等候調整再買入,才是進一步拋離指數的動力。

- 長線十倍股有兩個重要的特質 game changing/ disruptive business。目前持股中有三數隻是尤具時特質的,大家應不難看到。

37 則留言:

  1. game changing/ disruptive business, 我想 TSLA 同 SDGR 應該都係吧, 我記得你之前曾買入 SDGR 但之後又賣掉, 因為你這個 trade 我看了一些這股的簡單介紹, 相信這股具備 gaming changing 的特質, 而且發展才剛起步同市值還少, 十倍增幅的概率應該大於已是千億市值的 TSLA 吧.
    因為本人資金少, 所以全倉這股了

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    1. 除了TSLA,SDGR,我對LVGO 的前景也有很高的期望。以IoT及AI為糖尿病治療,節省病人及保險公司的成本,且可把應用拓展至高血壓等,再看公司的financials,是很值得憧憬

      MSCI 及 AAPL明顯是economy moat的公司. NVDA, CRWD, DDOG 無疑在各自的範疇有迎合AI及cloud的產品,但又未至於很革命性

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    2. 奉勸一句,即使本小也不適宜買這些很小型潛在十倍股,除非您真的很具信心,SDGR只得30億美金市值

      一個portfolio的構成,也應有些blue chips 打底

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    3. 多謝你的提醒, 其實如果走勢明顯轉差, 我都會先沽出的. 不過長遠這確是有發展優勢的公司

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  2. 最近才留意到這個Blog, 可惜太遲了. 兩個月就從天而降, 對於是美股新手的我來說, 就像看到另一個世界呢. 我都在構想一個美股portfolio, 先嘗試設立目標, 跑嬴標普好了. 期待Blog主的分享, YNWA.

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  3. Strong quarterly results and guidance of DDOG

    Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG) shares gain 2.5% after-hours following a strong Q1 showing with revenue up 87% Y/Y.

    Customers with $100K+ ARR grew from 508 in last year's quarter to 960.

    Operating cash flow was $24.3M with $19.3M in FCF. Cash and equivalents totaled $798.5M at the end of the quarter.

    For Q2, DDOG guides $134-136M in revenue (consensus: $126.31M) and $0-0.01 EPS (consensus: $0.02 loss).

    The FY20 outlook has revenue of $555-565M (consensus: $534.50M) and $0.02-0.06 EPS (consensus: $0.06 loss).

    Datadog (NASDAQ:DDOG): Q1 Non-GAAP EPS of $0.06 beats by $0.08; GAAP EPS of $0.02 beats by $0.06.

    Revenue of $131.25M (+87.4% Y/Y) beats by $13.52M.

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  4. 昨晚很多美國科技股又再破頂創新高,我的ytd回報也剛好破頂。所以當下的資本市場更趨兩極化,且市場效率有所提高;只要能抓住投資大主題,要跑贏指數不算太難。目前的持股及portfolio回報不俗,但檢討watchlist, 仍有很多尚未充份捕捉的投資機會

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    1. 再加LVGO,SDGR昨晚表現都很強,ytd過30%了,總之不要被勝利沖昏頭腦

      但這些公司市值較少,始終不敢很大注

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    2. SaaS 公司很多,但這個的業績特別優異,也很快breakeven

      觀察到公司的一個賣點是很易install and execute,所以造就了很高的增長

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  6. SAAS股舊年尾既SELL OFF令人覺得可怕
    今年頭既爆升亦都令人覺得狂喜

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    1. Because SaaS can benefit from the coronavirus outbreak out of the work/stay at home theme

      Last week my investment performance was a failure because I only look at revenue growth but ignore profitability. This year I put more weighting on profitability as the stock has to be at least close to breakeven. With this criteria, my investment performance significantly improves this year

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  7. Very cautious comment from Fed Chairman. Be aware

    The pandemic panic raises concerns of long-term economic harm, says Fed Chair Jay Powell, with the current outlook highly uncertain and downside risks significant.

    A Fed survey, he says, shows 40% of households with less than $40K in income have lost a job.

    As for negative rates, there's no mention about them in the speech. Most of the Fed aren't thought to be fans, but Fed Funds futures nevertheless have priced in negative policy rates by early next year. Powell's decision not to say anything in his speech might prompt more negative rate bets.

    Powell: "While the economic response has been both timely and appropriately large, it may not be the final chapter."

    Market reactions so far: Stock index futures continue to hold modest gains; the dollar (UUP, UDN) is slipping a bit, and gold (XAU:USD) has added a few dollars, now up 0.7% to $1,720 per ounce. In bonds, the 10-year Treasury yield has dipped a couple of basis points, now at 0.65%. TLT +0.45%.

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  8. Market weakens,

    Sell BEP, LVGO
    Reduce TSLA
    Set stop order to reduce DDOG

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    1. 昨晚午夜時DDOG觸及了沽出價,減持部分獲利,現金比重提升至23%

      S&P及杜指己跌破21EMA及短期上升走勢。但代表新經濟的納指走勢仍強,仍企在明顯的上升走勢,很多watchlist內的科技股昨晚跌幅均顯著收窄。大盤走勢尚未全面轉差

      之但係,這兩個月的回報表現實在太好了,加上昨晚Fed Chair Powell的審慎言論,高位減持一點獲利套現也好,尤其是LVGO及DDOG己大幅拋離50天線很多

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  9. 市底一點都不弱,稍為調整已經有人接

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    1. 信心一般啦,美股昨晚倒升主要是因炒作美國又會再推出刺激經濟方案。但美國經濟回復的過程未如預期,昨晚的initial jobless claims仍企在高位,單單這些因憧憬救市的升浪效力未必持久

      昨晚的倒升似乎是舊經濟股的平倉帶動,新經濟股上升力度並不強

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  10. Exclusive: Tesla's secret batteries aim to rework the math for electric cars and the grid

    Electric car maker Tesla Inc (TSLA.O) plans to introduce a new low-cost, long-life battery in its Model 3 sedan in China later this year or early next that it expects will bring the cost of electric vehicles in line with gasoline models, and allow EV batteries to have second and third lives in the electric power grid.

    https://www.reuters.com/article/us-autos-tesla-batteries-exclusive-idUSKBN22Q1WC

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  11. 受疫情減退及憧憬開發疫苗成功等推動,美股昨晚出現突破性上升。然而,昨晚的上升主要由落後股及舊經濟股帶動;之前跑羸指數的雲端科技股卻升幅落後甚至回吐,會考慮因應市場回味轉變而作出一些sector rotation

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    1. 岩岩睇到d news 話今次係平方根型recover.
      如果岩既話 代表黎緊個市會好flat, 相對個股會重要

      反而覺得係一個好時機儲下saas 股貨
      今次疫情如果無論recover or not 都會對舊經濟股做成負面影響
      而saas 呢類型輕資產,survived 呢個pandemic既,growth 會得益accelerate得更厲害。
      可能係最後一次見到呢家呢d 價錢了

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    2. 這個中長期大方向應不會改變,但如SaaS的短線升幅over extend,加估值太高的話;也需留意其他板塊的機會

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    1. Take profit on SDGR because of sharp intraday reversal

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  13. 請問,因為國安法影響,港股大跌,不知資金會不會轉去美股?抑或兩邊都跌?但暫時認為VIX指數都算冷靜。美股未必太淡。

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    1. 對香港的房地產股的確有沉重影響,但對於近期的強勢股如物管,高端醫療等,有國安法與否其實無關係,這個應是趁低買入機會

      一國兩制己certified,香港人應有自己岡位內盡力做可做的事。也慶幸自己己把資產轉移至美股,至少在財產上保障了自己。

      關於portfolio update,昨晚再減持了些MSCI,原因是在整個portfolio中走勢最弱。觀察自己持股及重點watchlist的走勢,美股方面暫無地方需要擔心

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    1. 這些short operation向來不是我的強項。況這YANG應是純中資股,若因國安法看淡香港,沽空香港的金融及房地產股應是更合切的方向

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    2. 主要係睇美國BAN中概股+香港國安法雙重打擊 :)
      CHING所言亦甚是
      領展個價低到.....

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  15. Market significantly worsens

    Sell MSCI and CRWD

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  16. 師兄有冇留意SQ同PYPL, 會唔會考慮將支付公司入倉?

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  17. 如上面留言,之前己買了SQ並有加碼

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