| Nvidia (NVDA US) | 12.9% |
| Microsoft (MSFT US) | 12.8% |
| Tesla (TSLA US) | 11.8% |
| Mastercard (MA US) | 9.7% |
| MSCI (MSCI US) | 9.6% |
| Crowdstrike (CRWD US) | 9.0% |
| Alteryx (AYX US) | 8.9% |
| Realty Income (O US) | 5.8% |
| Apple (AAPL US) | 5.5% |
| Shopify (SHOP US) | 5.4% |
| Netflix (NFLX US) | 4.8% |
| Cash | 3.8% |
組合 year to date回報：2.5%
標普500 year to date年回報：(13.7%)
納指year to date年回報：(9.1%)
恆指 year to date 回報：(13.8%)
- 環球股市終回穩反彈，而投資組合亦回到高持股狀態，y-t-d回報稍為改善。但在這一段反攻期間，抵受的心理壓力不少，投資組合回報和指數的正面差距也見收窄。指數見底回升的一段，信心還不是太明確，在營造底部的震盪期間，一買一賣之間很容易做錯決定，直至上周後期，投資組合回報才見顯著改善。其中在波動市況中支持稍為向好的立場的美股的波幅指數VIX 終見回落。我認同股市具前膽性，疫情最惡劣情況過去足能驅使股市見底回升。
- 此外，目前的市場效率很高，感覺上很多投資者都懂捕捉這個難得的機會趁低買貨。很多基本因素很具信心的公司，如MSFT，MSCI，NVDA等。自低位回升收復失地的步速較指數快很多，在一週內己收復很多失地，再不追入的話便要冒上錯失大好趁低買入機會的風險。在重啟QE的時代，加上市場效率提升；套用某些投資名家的說法，待市場波幅收窄時才買入，便容易流於紙上談兵。在剛過去的兩周，尤其是對很有信心的公司，面對股價走勢的快速收復；某程度上可說是焗買，所以持股比重也在短時間內重回高位。
- 在這次重新增持股份中，我第一批買入的是相當具信心的股份如MSFT，NVDA，MSCI 等。其後也注意到市場口味轉變，市場於領導股take profit；並把焦點移往於反彈浪中滯後的股份追落後，所以我在這數天買回 O，TSLA，AYX、SHOP等。
- 美股這兩周回升的力度頗為明確，但仍不能排除看錯的可能性。說到底，環球疫情最多只能說最懷情況接近過去，但個案回落的速度也影響經濟隨後復蘇的力度，當中還存在很多變數。目前高的持股比重，的確面對心理壓力，要準備風險管理方案。但從正面方向看，不單VIX顯著下滑，反映企業債的ETF，HYG 和 LQD 均大幅回升，金融市場的恐慌情緒改大為改善。以反映中長線走勢的周線圖看，納指及自己的核心持股，經這兩周的反彈後，暫仍維持長期升勢中的大型調整之格局。
- 我認為投資長期而言要成功，選股仍是最重要，風險管理及買賣策略等是次要。現拋磚引玉，請大家想像在五至十年內有什麼公司在股價及盈利增長上可跑出（美股及港股皆可），尤其是一些革命性，可領導產業進化的公司。請每位列出五至十隻，我的選擇是：
TSLA US
NVDA US
LVGO US
SDGR US
SHOP US
SPCE US
241 HK
可能我還是選回MSFT, MA, V
回覆刪除如果未來可以加速會選NEE那些, 革命性改變三兩年總有一兩間公司彈出, 有時難點預料, 但一步步改變還是可以看得見一點點
師兄Bill Shankly句名言很好, YNWA!
但NEE 除了替代能源發電外,有否一些獨特的competitive edges呢?
刪除就咁睇唔好有太sexy 的故事, 一步步成長就或者會有
刪除V呢D係鐵膽～ TSLA，SPCE 如果跌得夠殘都會考慮買
回覆刪除TSLA昨晚又大升了
刪除Sell O
回覆刪除Add TSLA and SHOP
昨晚S&P仍跌,納指微升,但和雲及stay/work at home相關的股份仍大幅走強,看來市場己找到反彈回升的焦點
沽出 O US,這些零售商用物業的REITs仍面對較大不確定性,不太為市場受落.而 Tesla 繼續回勇,繼年初後繼續成為拉動投資組合的火車頭
241好難搵位入
回覆刪除今天才剛突破高位，現價買入也不算太遲
刪除這個升勢減持了不少美股, YTD 算是+了一點, 未來美股主力放在SaaS, AYX, CRWD,DDOG, OKTA,LVGO 等等,另外MSFT. 但市面上一片樂觀, 我反而不敢太樂觀
回覆刪除目前美股的反彈才趨向明確，應不用太急減持。SaaS 我不會太重倉，增長主題夠sexy，但估值高及很多仍未有GAAP 盈利，目前仍屬於初成長階段
刪除TSLA$720太多蟹貨, 今日又GAP UP, 拋物線上升, 需要主動式沽出一半獲利嗎
回覆刪除Credit Suisse upgrades Tesla (NASDAQ:TSLA) to a Neutral rating from Underperform and hikes its price target to $580 from $415 (more than 10% below last night's close).
刪除Analyst Dan Levy says it gives Tesla a larger competitive edge in the transition to EV, as coronavirus disruption will make it more difficult for legacy automakers to balance the long-term shift to EV in the face of near-term cycle disruption.
Levy sees Tesla as having a clear advantage in battery lead, improved liquidity and signs of improvements in execution. The firm's valuation framework on Tesla assumes 1.2M units sold per year by 2025.
Other good news of TSLA include very positive review and response of newly launched Model Y, plus China factory and sales resuming to normal.
刪除Plus today the share price of TSLA just regained 50 day MA, so no need in hurry to take profit
我認為主動式沽出適宜在上升動力減弱時應用
刪除Test buy LVGO, add little TSLA
回覆刪除下一輪跑出既應該係新既醫藥療法
回覆刪除尤其係COVID19出現之後
ILMN
TDOC?
其實可以下ARK INVEST列左既2020年BIG IDEAS
Deep Learning — From Vision to Language
Streaming Media — The Primary Technology Behind Content Distribution
Electric Vehicles — Faster Adoption Than Most Think
Automation — Increased Productivity and More Jobs
3D Printing — An Underestimated Technology
Autonomous Ridehailing — The Future of Transportation
Aerial Drones — A Cost Saver and Potential Life Saver
Next Generation DNA Sequencing — The Transformation of Oncology
Biotech R&D Efficiency — The Convergence of Technologies in Healthcare
Digital Wallets — The Transformation of Banking
Bitcoin — An Evolution of Monetary Systems
TDOC 可以放入 watchlist，但ILMN做基因分析，太難掌握，且走勢也不算太標青
刪除Regarding healthcare theme, I am more convinced about my newly added LVGO, it's about big data plus AI healthcare. Here are some informative links:
刪除https://seekingalpha.com/news/3558936-livongoplus-8-premarket-on-preliminary-q1-revenue
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4329796-livongo-health-lvgo-presents-cowen-health-care-conference-slideshow
https://boards.fool.com/lvgo-earnings-surprise-34425152.aspx?sort=whole#34456282
咁咪有D似平安好醫生?
刪除TDOC 係美版平安好醫生
刪除LVGO好難三言兩語解釋清楚，以我理解係用healthcare devices收集用戶大數據，並配以AI，幫助治療糖尿及高血壓等病
Sell MA & NFLX
回覆刪除- weak US retail sales are dampening the share price of Visa and MasterCard
- sell Netflix on strength to take profit
Add little bit LVGO
After this round of rally and consolidation, the trend is more obvious that funds will be concentrating on Cloud (work from/stay at home), plus Internet healthcare and Tesla
Buy DDOG
回覆刪除Add little TSLA
Sell AAPL
回覆刪除Expecting weaker iPhone demand, Goldman Sachs downgrades Apple (NASDAQ:AAPL) from Neutral to Sell.
刪除The firm expects a 36% decline in iPhone units in Q2 and a 24% decline in H1 CY20.
Analysts led by Rod Hall forecast a shallower recovery in early 2021 and "lingering" ASP weakness due to the economic downturn.
Hall also expects the downturn to ding ASP for other Apple products and to slow Services growth.
Goldman drops its Apple target from $250 to $233, a 19% downside.
Sell SHOP on strength to take profit
刪除昨天大跌是否由牛轉熊, 我自己大量減持股票, 恆指, S&P, DOW JONES確認是RISING WEDGE向下突破。
回覆刪除但同時也留意CRWD OKTA DOCU VEEV SHOP ZM SMAR NFLX TSLA LVGO 的走勢, 這些均曾破頂或近幾個月新高的股票, 他們走勢比我感覺是調整後再大升的Big Winner。
來不及更新,昨晚睡前 set 了 NVDA 的stop sell order,今早醒來見到差不多在最低位中了stop loss price,減持了約一半.連同早前的take profit,現金比率升回20%以上
刪除理由是昨晚的市況不算特別差,似是一個大的pull back多些,但VIX昨晚顯著回升逾5%,所以仍有些謹慎。昨晚午夜見美股的跌幅收窄,所以未有執行沽出,只是set 了走勢相對較差的NVDA 做stop sell order 作一個保險,那知在收市前中了
我的研判是武漢肺炎最壞情況己過,資本市場應見底回升,而油價低企不會造成意料之外的大震盪。cloud/work/stay at home 股明顯是目前的領導板塊,我也相信是長期趨勢,但一旦經濟逐步恢復的話,市場焦點或會短線轉移往其他sector
I think the latest results of Netflix were mixed. Very strong subscriber growth, but weaker than expected net profit, and humble management guidance on subscriber growth
回覆刪除Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX): Q1 GAAP EPS of $1.57 misses by $0.07.
Revenue of $5.77B (+27.7% Y/Y) beats by $20M.
Global streaming paid memberships 182.86M (+22.8% Y/Y) vs. guidance of 174.09M, net addition 15.77M.
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) is up 3.3% in early after-hours trades after topping consensus on revenues and smashing user growth in its Q1 earnings, despite some COVID-19 clouds obscuring the radar.
Revenues rose nearly 28% to $5.77B, edging consensus for $5.75B. EPS grew to $1.57 from a year-ago $0.76, but fell short of expectations for $1.64 (estimates that were revised up heavily in recent weeks).
Global streaming net adds were 15.77M, crushing estimates for about 8.5M. That compares to 8.76M in net adds last quarter, and 9.6M net adds in the year-ago Q1.
That brings overall global paid memberships to 182.86M, up 22.8% Y/Y.
In general pandemic impact, it says "for the most part" things have gone smoothly, with product teams relatively unaffected (and working on a scaled-back innovation timeline). But "we have seen significant disruption when it comes to customer support and content production."
Netflix (NASDAQ:NFLX) was riding high after posting record subscriptions amid the COVID-19 pandemic, though shares flattened out postmarket after the company released its executive reaction to the numbers. (They ended after-hours trading up 0.2%.)
On the issue of cash flow, one effect of the shutdown is that the company actually went free cash flow positive, by about $162M (for now). Productions have shut down, trimming spending, and that leaves Netflix with about $5.2B in cash at quarter's end (along with an undrawn $750M credit facility) - "more than 12 months of liquidity and substantial financial flexibility."
The company said there was heavy uncertainty surrounding the effects of COVID-19, but "as a courtesy" it provided guidance anyway: As governments lift home confinement, it expects viewing and growth to decline. It's guiding for 7.5M global paid net additions in Q2, but calls that "mostly guesswork."
But it does expect Q3 and Q4 to have lower net additions than the prior year periods, in part due to a pull-forward effect into the first half. And it expects Q2 revenue of $6.05B (22.8% growth) and EPS of $1.81, with operating margin increasing to 17.9%.
As for the content pipeline: Quizzed by Michael Morris of Guggenheim on the investor interview, content guru Ted Sarandos says "We work really far out relative to the industry" due to launching entire series at once. "Our 2020 slate of series and films are largely shot, and are in post-production, remotely, in locations all over the world. And we're actually pretty deep into our 2021 slate. So we're not anticipating any big moving things around."
By way of example, he says The Crown and Netflix's big Q4 animated release Over the Moon "are shot productions and in the finishing stages right now to release later this year as planned."
market sentiment stabilises, buy AMD
回覆刪除Add little LVGO, DDOG & CRWD
刪除Increase weighting on stocks which are more resilient and recovering back to recent high
Buy AAPL
回覆刪除