經昨天的大陽燭大成交突破後，向牛的訊號進一步明顯；對我而言，突破２０４００才確認牛市不過是例行公事而已。觀察國企指數及升市的濶度，市底實在是被兩大廢股（HSBC及中移動）拖累的恆指為強。
不單中港股市，印度及巴西等新興市場今年開局也展現相對強勢，year to date回報達6%以上。今年新興市場可能玩mean reversion，表現可以翻身並跑贏美股。
昨天買入農行（１２８８）、加碼東岳（１８９）及重慶機電（２７２２），基本上已重回滿倉的攻擊狀態。這種單邊升市行情通常一年只會出現兩至三次，要好好把握機會。
持倉比重已高的，可考慮為組合作進一步優化；把組合中的弱股（走勢相對較弱、防守性股票、或早前累積升幅過多，升勢見疲態的股份）換入估值相對較低、並具動力的強股。尚未積極入貨的，遺憾地現時高追在操作上及心態上均會很蝕章，唯有等待下次機會。
投資者現階段可能會較留意落後的股票。我不否認炒落後的理念；但如昨天大盤following through day大升，該落後股連一支似樣的大陽燭也沒有，很大機會不是好東西；這些股票暫時可以不理。
目前組合：
| Techtronic (669) | 13.8% |
| Singamas Container (716) | 9.6% |
| YGM (375) | 8.9% |
| BYD (1211) | 8.0% |
| Dongyue (189) | 8.0% |
| SUNAC (1918) | 7.3% |
| CPIC (2601) | 7.1% |
| Chongqing Machinery (2722) | 6.8% |
| CMB (3968) | 6.7% |
| Ping An (2318) | 6.4% |
| ABC (1288) | 5.8% |
| COGO (81) | 5.1% |
| Boshiwa (1698) | 4.3% |
| Cash | 2.0% |
You Sir 太強..like
回覆刪除點睇716? 尼2日好似較弱 對2357有沒有興趣?
KEN
You Sir 好進取 ^^
回覆刪除Ken：兩、三天的弱勢不須太擔心，況且７１６之前已升了很多，略作整固也是合理；２３５７有注資概念，但暫時興趣不大
回覆刪除達人兄：大盤才剛突破不久，現時不進取還待何時？！當大盤升至階段性高位後，會把部分持股套現
You Sir, 現價以下那股比較值博？
回覆刪除1288
716
2722
Thanks
Goodboy
YOU SIR 午安! 來拜個早年先!
回覆刪除Sunny: welcome back, enjoy your stay in HK!
回覆刪除Goodboy:假若相信環球經濟及股市周期已見底的話，７１６的爆發動力應該最大，雖則該股的波幅也較大；１２８８及２７２２應是平穩向上之選
all are good news, cool!
回覆刪除Builder Confidence Rises to Highest Level Since June 2007
http://www.cnbc.com/id/46039215
Homebuilder confidence in the market for newly built, single-family homes rose for the fourth consecutive month in January to its highest level since June 2007 on the NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market Index.
Greece Nears Deal With Private Creditors
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-17/greece-nearing-deal-with-private-creditors-marathon-ceo-says.html
Greece and its private creditors are beginning a final push to renegotiate debt as a member of the investor group said they are likely to get cash and securities with a market value of about 32 cents per euro of government bonds.
IMF Seeks $500B Boost to Lending Resources
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/imf-said-to-seek-1-trillion-boost-to-insulate-economies-from-euro-crisis.html
The International Monetary Fund is proposing to raise its lending capacity by as much as $500 billion to insulate the global economy against any worsening of Europe’s debt crisis.
The Washington-based lender is aiming to increase its resources after identifying a potential need for $1 trillion in financing in coming years, an IMF spokesman said in a statement. The IMF is studying options and will not comment further until it has consulted its members, the fund said. To incorporate a cash buffer, the lender is seeking a total $600 billion.
2318 唔等人！！>_< 今日局追 @58.90
回覆刪除buy 3333
回覆刪除sell 81
回覆刪除buy 691
回覆刪除U sir , 讀您著作，獲益良多！雖然我極少跟您的持貨，但卻是靈感的泉源！！
回覆刪除拜過早年先！
祝身體健康 一本萬利 事事如意 恭喜發財
投機青年
You Sir, 今朝仲想問你, 3333 走勢唔錯, 點知你已快手買回 ^^
回覆刪除投機兄:多謝支持,希望我無做燈啦!不過話時話本blog在掌握大方向上是做得不錯的
回覆刪除達人兄:在這單邊升市追逐動力是重要的,且3333符合我估值便宜加具動力原則;有留意過其他內房股,但發現還是這隻upside較大
another good news that should not be overlooked
回覆刪除China Mulls Relaxing Capital Rules for Banks
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2012-01-18/china-said-to-consider-relaxing-capital-requirements-for-banks.html
China’s banking regulator is weighing a plan to relax capital requirements for lenders after the world’s second-largest economy expanded at the slowest pace in 10 quarters, four people with knowledge of the matter said.
The China Banking Regulatory Commission is delaying implementing the most stringent capital adequacy ratios and may lower risk weightings for loans to small businessmen and companies, the people said, declining to be identified as the matter is confidential. The watchdog may also allow banks to increase the excess bad-loan reserves used in calculating risk buffers, they said.
buy 868
回覆刪除U sir , 不要咁謙啦，人家當您是燈神，您老人家就當佢地是神油囉！！
回覆刪除您也買 868 ，我隻 3300 收番一半沽盤先！！
哈哈
投機青年
Blogspot幾時先肯整個鐘, 時間好混亂 :(
回覆刪除sell 1698
回覆刪除you sir, is 189 already over bought?
回覆刪除thx
Kan
Kan: In a bull rally, a stock can stay overbought for quite a while. Today's drop is a normal correction and no need to be too worried about it.
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