當上周大家都憧憬，市場對壞消息再無反應，環球資本市場至少可略喘穩；亞太區股市今天卻來一個反高潮大幅下挫，原因是解決歐債危機無進一步進展。可見即是技術分析指出值搏率高，熊市中搏反彈其實很容易變成被套。
中港股市的跌幅較亞太地區來得深；近月國內房地產銷售開始不繼，內房股開始大幅回落、亦帶動水泥股急跌。若中國樓市有顯著的回落，對經濟的衝擊不會較歐洲及美國經濟再次探底為少。觀乎中港股市近日的弱勢，可見市場正反映中國經濟有可能硬著陸的風險。我個人仍認為硬著陸風險不會太高，但要尊重市場訊號。
上周眼見股市中短線見底機會頗大，加上持倉比率低於２０％（且其中一隻是很少程度受惠大盤反彈的領匯），不想在反彈市中被大盤追上；便買入具防守性的佐丹奴（７０９），以作攻中帶守。我的操作已算較保守，但今天仍要遭受一些損失；可見在熊市中要盡量戒急用忍。燃氣股算是有不俗抗跌力，華潤燃氣（１１９３）今天的表現算是合格。但稍為失望的是領匯（８２３）未能發揮抗跌作用。從另一角度看今天傳統公用股及REITs也跟隨大市下跌，證明市場的風險胃納很差。早前沽出黃金ETF只是反映我的買入點不好，在合適時機不排除會再買回。
目前的整體訊號實在是很熊；大盤的反彈實在是很短暫，要再開熊證也不容易把握到機會。只是目前的現金比率已很高，且持股也相當具防守性；過往大半年經驗也指出在大跌市日跟沽，多數不會有好結果（反之亦然）；今天選擇不作任何操作。在現階段或會少些捕捉大市波幅，用多些時間做基本分析的功課為下一輪牛市作準備可能會更好。
目前持股：
| China Resources Gas (1193) | 7.4% |
| Link REITs (823) | 7.2% |
| Giorando (709) | 5.7% |
| Cash | 79.6% |
是啊！買上買落也不會買多。等侯機會才開大砲轟，最怕慢跌，心急岀戰•••
回覆刪除another bad news, seems there will be another plunge today...
回覆刪除Italy Rating Lowered by S&P, Outlook ‘Negative’
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-09-19/italy-s-credit-rating-cut-one-level-to-a-by-s-p-as-government-debt-mounts.html
Bought some 2877 at 10.2 for speculating.
回覆刪除Tontongood: I think Shineway Pharm is a reasonable bet. The current valuations of Shineway have reflected most of the industry negatives. I’m just wary of the broad market risk.
回覆刪除馬彼得：我又唔怕慢跌，最怕又係o個市升番少少然後貪心搏反彈，之後又被套。現時正學習戒急用忍，即使搏反彈也以少注及用防守性股份出撃
Sold 1828 and a little 1193 before market close, raise cash level to new height.
回覆刪除You Sir, you are right, the stock market as a whole is quite risky.
tontongood: I think the TA for both 1193 and 1828 are still okay as they still hold on their uptrend. But I feel more comfortable with China Resources Gas given its defensive nature and more solid price pattern.
回覆刪除You sir and tontongood sir's 1193 is a very good pick
回覆刪除chan sir: yes, but this time I've to take the opportunity to take profit. No need to sit too long during a bear market. Though I wrote some FA stuff on this Company earlier, I pick 1193 ahead of 2688 on TA grounds.
回覆刪除Just off load all remaining 40k of 1193, very good price.
回覆刪除Me next target 2319.
agree, you sir, maybe it is a good time to take profit today, 1193 is a good company, but price is not cheap now. i still believe 270 is a better choice.
回覆刪除take profit on 1193 too
回覆刪除tontongood: 2319 is a reasonable bottom fishing choice. But I am just a bit wary of the raw milk cost pressure and its high valuation
2319 is high on my watch list, but will wait cause I am currently betting on 2877, just want to keep it simple.
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