2011年9月30日星期五

9月份月結:輸少當贏

目前組合:

Link REITs (823)6.8%
Giorando (709)4.9%
Cash88.3%


9月份回報:-1.9%
年初至今回報:-11.7%

港股異常疲弱的表現,已非單單歐洲債務危機和美國經濟雙底衰退所能解釋。過去兩個星期的事態發展顯示,中國經濟硬著陸的可能性已大大增加。內銀股和內房股的大幅下挫,提醒投資者須關注中國經濟大幅下滑的可能性。自8月初開始作大撤退行動,到9月現金比率升至歷史高位;在如此惡劣市況下,9月份的投資表現總算可以接受,相對上表現也較不少blogger為佳。

即使買入防守性很高的如領匯(823)和佐丹奴(709),卻發現的抗跌力遠比預期弱。正由於它們被視為最具防守性的股票,使我對其價格變動失了警覺,錯失了止蝕機會並讓跌幅擴大。

在華潤燃氣(1193)及大昌行(1828)賺取了短線交易的利潤。另一方面,未能果斷止蝕佐丹奴(709)及華晨(1114),並讓其跌幅擴大,正是“贏粒糖、輸間廠”,也反映搏熊市反彈的難度。由於並非在適合買入點購入黃金ETF(3081),故也以輕微虧損離場,自己也未算掌握金屬品的買賣技巧。

我有興趣再次開淡倉。但市場如此疲弱,恆指反彈連10天平均線也不到;在無一個令我覺得安全的反彈高位做淡,結果候高反彈做不到,而大市卻越跌越有。

14 則留言:

  1. 有88%CASH 漫漫長路~ THX You Sir 一路的分享!!!!

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  2. 我很歡迎you提出我blog的不佳處

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  3. Due to my PC is in repair, can only post brief comments in English here, will try to make a more detailed update on Mobday:

    - the extra-ordinary weak performance of Hong Kong stock market should has more to do with Euro debt crisis and double dip US recession. The recent developments in the past two weeks suggest the likelihood of hard landing has significantly increased for China. The freefall of China banking and property shares is a worrying signal.

    - I opted to pick defensive plays such as 823 and 709, but found they provide lesser than expected resilience against market gravity. In fact, I became less alert to their price movement as taking their defensiveness for granted. I may dump my remaining stock holdings as defensive stocks cannot perform as a shelter when the market is close to meltdown

    - so far my performance was not bad. I even made little profit on trading the likes of 1193 and 1828. On the other hand, I let my loss to accumulate in 709 and 1114
    as I fail to stick with cut loss discipline. I made little loss
    on gold ETF 3081 as I missed the appropriate time to buy

    - I have interest to make short position again. But the market was so weak that the HSI rebound even failed to touch the 10MA, which is my minimum TA requirement to go short

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  4. right time to get off the boat
    Storm is coming!

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  5. 似乎哩一刻都幾多人相信自己預見股市將會繼續插水...

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  6. You Sir,想每天算一算恆指2011年PB
    似乎有比14254更新的數據,請代找一找恆指2011年預設市脹值 ?
    或者有沒有免費網站可找到不斷更新的恆指2011年PB數據?謝謝

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  7. 匿名:剛查過bloomberg的數據,恆指2010年帳面值為13965,11年預測值為14460,可作為估底的參考

    Kevin: The market tumble suggests something very bad in economy about our country will surface soon

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  8. Can't agree more. 100% cash then short HSI or buy bear put whenever market rebound.

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  9. But, have a gut feeling that when that many people start thinking of buy put, the market would hit short-term bottom soon.

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  10. 不正: But the sentiment is so bearish and everybody is waiting for a rebound to go short, so the HSI rebound cannot even touch the 10MA

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