一些市場觀察：
－ 內房股的動力顯著轉差，應與憂慮國內的資金鏈凍結有關
－ 奢侈消費股的動力顯著減弱
－ 很多早前呈現動力的二、三線股，今天呈轉升為跌的疲弱姿態，是頗熊的訊號
－ 反而之前被過份拋售的板塊如體育用品、百貨及醫藥等；股價走勢略為轉強，但動力並不足夠
－ 內銀股的形勢較想像中好，尤其是大型內銀股；目前內銀股的估值應已很大程度反映中國經濟硬著陸，在現水平不欲太過看淡
－ 有一個利好觀察，港股及美股正呈現一浪底高於一浪底形態；歐洲股市前天雖破底，但目前已略為升回底部之上；至少市場期待QE3及奧巴馬刺激就業方案的公佈
組合難得地五連升（雖則每天的升幅很輕微），反映長短倉的策略暫時有效，在波動市中透過long strong, short lagged穩住組合回報。但仍有地方要檢討，便是昨天在股價反彈幅度不夠時做空中海油（８８３），並在中海油再反彈至接近最高位置時止蝕；又成了一個明燈操作，且損失不低。做空中海油，靈感來自這篇及相關博文：(http://sixianghuayuan2.blogspot.com/2011/09/blog-post_3920.html)；看來漏油事件影響比想像中大。但這教訓道出即使是弱股，也要在right timing做空。
近日買入具防守性的華潤燃氣（１１９３）（近日燃氣股表現不俗），且對大昌行（１８２８）及時獲利套現；總算在股票資產調配上有好表現。今天觀察大盤好淡爭持，惟向淡一方略佔上風；在歐洲股市低開後，拍板買入HSBC熊證作對沖。思路上無大問題，但歐洲股市目前在低開後又作V型反彈轉跌為升，似乎這一著時機又是錯了。為保自已略為改善的回報，心態上變得較著緊，有時反而是做多了；在如此波動市況有時一動不如一靜。在目前回報還是可以時，不如耐心等待一個如９月１日般適合做淡的情況出擊做淡更佳。
目前組合如下：
| Gold value ETF (3081) | 7.1% |
| China Resources Gas (1193) | 7.3% |
| Gome (493) | 6.5% |
| HSBC bear | 4.5% |
| Cash | 74.5% |
水泥股加油
回覆刪除我仲以為睇緊cup sir嘅blog,,都係買黃金etf同hsbc熊
回覆刪除You Sir 沽出 1828 套利的時機非常好！
回覆刪除buy back 1114
回覆刪除投資達人兄: as you mentioned, "食左先講", have to learn from my past mistakes
Buy some 493.
回覆刪除The market seems to want a good reading of the CPI data.
Cash down to 60%
Still can't make up my mind on buying Bears, so hard to manage timing.
有否留意494走勢?????
回覆刪除巴士仔：４９４走勢有所好轉，但基本面上此公司在目前大環境下很難發圍，暫時興趣不大
回覆刪除tontongood: Bear cert is a useful tool to play with the bear market as long as you grasp the skills. Obviously it is much better to buy bear cert when the market is close to the peak of bear market rebound. Maybe you can allocate 1-2% of your portfolio for some trial trades. We cannot rule out the risk of any investment. I play short with HSBC because it has been the weakest blue chips for a while so I feel safe to play short with it. But I’m quite frustrated that HSBC outperforms the broad market significantly this morning without any clue. Nonetheless, my HSBC bear cert exposure is limited so the loss is still bearable. This is the point of risk management through limited portfolio exposure.
Thanks You Sir.
回覆刪除Will start playing with very small money, by the way I seem too optimistic about market buying willingness, will add more cash if this afternoon market show little good signs.
you sir:
回覆刪除1193, 493,中長線邊隻好呀?Thx^_^
chanel: 1193 coz gas utilities is defensive in nature. But again the appropriate buying point has passed so it’s better to be patient and wait for the next opportunity. (you can look for my previous post to see my buying time)
回覆刪除係~ 對494有同感 現在選擇做淡都要小心.
回覆刪除Thanks You Sir^0^
回覆刪除You sir
回覆刪除1114, 1193給你一個讚,神乎其技!
快叫cup搞投資比賽，我要和各位一戰定江山！
回覆刪除在華潤燃氣、華晨及黃金ETF帶動下，組合難得地六連升。最近數天頗留意華晨，今天終決定買入並令組合表現追回
回覆刪除匯豐突然轉為強勢，令我措手不及，也反映不應太貿貿然用熊證出擊做淡
華潤燃氣已進入須考慮獲利範圍、國美表現令人失望，已跌近波幅區的下限，表現再無改善須沽出
早晨, You Sir!! ^^ 祝中秋節快樂! 花好月圓!
回覆刪除-- Vagabond
you sir
回覆刪除中秋節快樂,人月兩團圓!
take profit on HSBC bear cert
回覆刪除cut loss 493
回覆刪除Vagabond & chanel: belated happy mid-autumn, hope you enjoy the holiday
回覆刪除cut loss 1114
回覆刪除