市況的惡劣實在超越想像，由於現金比率接近９０％，今天也想趁崩盤撈底。但經一番考慮及觀察後，今天還是忍手為上。首先撈底的目標業務上須有一定防守性、且走勢上尚未出現熊走勢。剩下能引起我興趣的選擇著實不多：華潤燃氣（１１９３）走勢異常硬淨，但跌幅不夠吸引，今天只有短時間停留在低位；經今天大跌後，九興（１８３６）的中長線升勢已遭受破壞，且高檔品牌鞋的製造外判業務不算是太具防守性；數碼通（３１５）是可考慮之選，但今天的跌幅實在太嚇人，想用多一兩天觀察；安踏（２０２０）的估值變得吸引，但中長線走勢看似乎尚未見底部支持。
市場觀察方面，匯豐中國PMI連續第三個月下跌，且停留在５０分水嶺以下；令國內A股跌突了昨天的反彈幅度，拖累港股跌幅擴大。歐洲股市低開後，港股跌勢也未能停止。於是即使有充裕彈藥在手，且不少股份出現具撈底吸引力的跌幅；在未有充份TA及FA的把握下，眼見港股受多方面衝擊，今天也忍手算數。（早前買入勝算頗高的佐丹奴（７０９），也落得慘淡下場，可見撈底風險之大）
目前year to date回報－１１％，總算還可以。自８月初確熊市後，交易的次數及注碼已有所減少，把損失控制在可接受範圍內，也反映熊市中學習忍耐的重要性。
目前不少股票的估值已跌至不太合理的吸引水平；但早前熱炒的零售消費股、及濠賭股價，目前只是回歸至合理水平。感覺上目前的市場情緒和０８年８至９月相似。以鐘擺效應看，在環球經濟的壞消息未出盡前，估值便宜後可以更便宜；投資者目前切勿太衝動大手撈底。
目前組合：
| Link REITs (823) | 7.4% |
| Giorando (709) | 5.1% |
| Cash | 87.6% |
Lo Cho and Lo Tsang's views seems outdated! Franklin Lam's evidence-based research seems pointing to another direction. What is your view?
回覆刪除I buy RedMonkey's analysis for 992, and Mr Market's analysis for 農行. Keep their stocks
You sir，响呢D有反彈（不過係好弱果隻）無上升既時候，點解唔沽期權幫補下？反正股市如果升，手上股票又可以cover風險。今日恒指十月20000好似收110點左右，沽左袋五千大洋都好丫。
回覆刪除不正：歡迎留言，熊市中也可以失驚無神地被挾高千多點；put call這些損失空間無限，獲利有限的工具以我的風險胃納而言興趣不大
回覆刪除Kevin：老曹的觀點向來沒有興趣，反而想知林奮強的觀點。農行的資本充足率似乎不夠，即使要撈內銀也不是我的首選
You are right , today I have to face the facts that small percentage can do big damage!
回覆刪除buy 315
回覆刪除我掛11.98買315, 衰貪心結果買不到
回覆刪除This morning I changed all 590 into 315 at 12.6.
回覆刪除But if we buy Mr Lam's research and the undervaluing assessment the option of buying 4 &17 is not bad among those in the HSI
回覆刪除If some more bad news coming, maybe it's time to get off the boat first
回覆刪除我本身都以 709 和 315 作搏反彈對象，但今朝無厘頭買左 590，竟然無買 709 和 315，慘！！
回覆刪除oh, 1193 pay back time, hope can buy back around 10.
回覆刪除You Sir 說的也是道理。朋友也說沽期權賺少少但風險無限叫我小心。但自己通常都有股票在手，心諗沽Call option，如果市升，股票都升。升得幾誇張最多打和。
回覆刪除而且我通常沽下月2000點以上期權，斷估股市跌2000點多過升2000，所以未有特別查究。但You Sir 叫小心，我也做少少功課吧。
開Excel download HSI 過往10年data。假設由2001年1月每月1號沽1張下月2000點以上期權，渣至到期。期權金大約100至200點。保守算120點=$50x120=$6000。
如是模擬操作，十年共得期權金$762000。另大市升超過2000點月份，共輸$662000。實賺$100000。所以沽Call Long run 會賺(如果頂得住輸十萬十萬果幾個月，譬如2007升得最勁果幾個月)。
不過沽put就輸得慘。如果將以上倒轉沽put。輸$1111000。減期權金實輸$349000。所以沽put期權金都會多D既，不過應該唔夠輸。
知道You Sir 對期權興趣不大，不過既然計完一大輪不如給大家參考一下。
tontongood: 我目前對燃氣股頗有興趣,惟要小心資源稅改制對它們或會有間接影響
回覆刪除達人兄: 今天六福的反彈幅度都算不錯
不正: 多謝你提供的有趣資料,應是有用的參考;但如你看開本blog,都知我不太熱衷洐生工具,short call失敗的心理壓力對我而言是很大;每人的投資風格不同,只要你的那一套work 便可以了
今天小注撈底數碼通算是成功，帶動今天組合升0.4%多些，表現有些驚喜
回覆刪除今天決定撈底，主要有三個觀察：（一）恆指跌幅擴大至５００點後，終有些明顯的單日承接力及反彈、（二）恆指的RSI已跌至離金融海嘯的最低水平不遠、（三）公用股及REITs今天也出現大跌
目前歐洲股市又轉升為急跌，今次撈底可能會是錯誤決定；但自己的現金水平維持在８０％以上，即使恆指仍未見底，目前現金水平仍足以令我安心
You Sir，不定期追看貴Blog多年，為閣下的投資功力進步而高與。你保持一貫的實事求事，立論中肯，不斷撿討，再修訂你的投資理念，難得的是你願意無私地和素不相識的投資人同行。
回覆刪除Sam
Kevin: I know Mr. Lam's vision and concur with it. But from investment, if we're gonna to face another economic downturn, commercial properties can be hardly defensive.
回覆刪除Sam: thanks for your compliment. I am happy to see that I manage to cap loss in this bear market and show improvement in coping with bear market, but yet there is room of improvement in some aspects. Like other professionals, investment is a continuous learning process and a successful investor has to keep humble and learn from others. Arrogant and eco centric attitude would only make one into a joke, just like the teacher's case
Hi You Sir,
回覆刪除Given the fact that the global economy is in a clear downward turn, and inflation in many countries is surfacing, what's you view on Gold after if it continue it's recent tumble?
網上的所謂高手好多, 4月大市向下尚仲話牛市, 猛叫人搏,入了大量sp ,搏下半年大昇, 完全無提最近狂加按金,跌成咁仲驚都唔驚!?
回覆刪除模擬操作?
我都想開個 blog, 用一億做本金, 只買一天Short or long,要麼發達揚,要麼再摺埋開過!
股市升，手上股票可以不升!!
回覆刪除Tontongood: gold price is in correction because there is no QE3 and of USD rebound. Tightening liquidity in China may also be a reason. Given that expansionary monetary policy will remain in face of a 2nd recession and concern on developed countries' fiscal condition, the long term uptrend of gold price is likely to remain intact. You can first observe whether gold price can gain supportive level
回覆刪除I really think that this recession is very big and long lasting. There is great possibility HSI will down below 13000-. As a result, I already sold all stocks and short a lot of call option of week stock like 330, 5, 1919.
回覆刪除剛剛翻爬信報舊文，留意到羅耕兄8月11日在信報的拼圖。推算出今次跌市的最後跳船機會應該是9月23日。果真和近日的市況非常相近，十分利害。尤其近月公司D客拖數情況同08年果時一模一樣。如果星期一有反彈，我會考慮清埋手上D貨尾。
回覆刪除水泥價回升，旺季回歸！
回覆刪除兵爺會否加碼亞泥？
315 take profit
回覆刪除屁股:水泥價格通常在年底會反彈,但在目前市況這類周期性股票風險會頗高
回覆刪除This morning offload all 2877, reduced 458
回覆刪除Now meaningful holding are only 709, and a little 315,a little 458.
88% cash.
YTD -10.6%.
Have to always remind myself of this word 忍.
tontongood: fortunately I took profit on 315 this morning. In bear market, sometimes it is better to stay sideline. Definitely you should raise cash level but I think 2877 may be the one to keep on.
回覆刪除Yes, 2877 is quite strong at this moment, I sold it cause I fear in bear market today's stronghold might be tomorrow's graveyard!
回覆刪除I am not that worried at all. Stocks that tumbled strongly recently are those still seeing rally in the beginning stage of this bear market. Shineway Pharm has plunged nearly two third in the past year and hence the selling pressure is not that big relatively. You can find similar pattern in other stocks that have been technically weak for a long time, like 2208. (Of course, I do not say share price having fallen a lot constitutes a reason for bottom fishing.)
回覆刪除CUP 今天說組合-2.3%? 他又「忘記」計算上星期五SLV的損失了！又來輸錢扮失憶, 可憐
回覆刪除Cup Sir近來操作有些少失誤，但到目前為止year to date虧損只是在數個百分點之內，已經處理得很好了
回覆刪除他已經被踢爆未有計算交易費用,所以他的回報應該是-10%左右吧
回覆刪除如果計及Cup 兄的portfolio size及選取的經紀行，交易費用比率是有下調的空間。況且他的交易次數又不算是很頻繁，我粗略估計交易費用不會造成這麼大的回報率差距
回覆刪除看投資blog，博主組合的投資表現只是其中一個參考；更重要的是博主的觀點及內容是否有價值
看投資blog，博主組合的投資表現只是其中一個參考；更重要的是博主的觀點及內容是否有價值 x 2
回覆刪除