跑羸大市：
大市同步：
跑輸大市：
很多板塊的表現其實和大家想像中差不多。撇除金融股以外，其實不少板塊的走勢並不算太差；中資金融股的潛在風險，很多blog友己講很多次，Ａ股金融股的弱勢又不過時另一質疑對這類股份長渣的例證。
目前持股如下：
| YGM (375) | 15.5% |
| Gome (493) | 11.6% |
| Jiangxi Copper (358) | 9.8% |
| ZhengTong (1728) | 9.1% |
| Luk Fook (590) | 8.9% |
| Biostime (1112) | 7.1% |
| Galaxy entertainment (27) | 7.0% |
| Evergrande (3333) | 6.2% |
| Belle (1880) | 6.0% |
| Overseas Oceans (81) | 5.7% |
| Cash | 13.0% |
目前明顯是消費零售股跑出，而做奢侈品的又跑贏一般性消費品。目前組合內也是以消費股作主打。上周買入了兩隻內陸城市內房股，比重或許多了一點；以目前宏觀情況論，似乎是有國企中海外背景的海外宏洋（８１）為佳。
困擾大市的三座大山：歐債危機總算暫時解決、美國的國債上限危機應不過是政治風波、中國方面，通脹應能見頂，調控措施應不會再加重；但伴隨而之是硬著陸或軟著陸，暫時還是５０／５０。今個月公佈的經數據仍可以，但最新的匯豐PMI低於５０也是一個明顯利淡訊號。暫認同投資達人兄的看法，至少要升破並企穩２２８００才可較進取地看好。
本周會較留意以下股票：
天能動力（８１９）及超威（９５１）：整合及淘汰不合格產能政策令鉛酸電池出現供應缺口，對龍頭生產商大大利好；走勢上又似乎未充份反映有關因素，可參閱：
http://dannyyung.wordpress.com/2011/07/15/electric-bike-battery-producer-value-momentum-catalyst/
http://anthonycheungroche2.blogspot.com/2011/07/105.html
IT（９９９）：走勢上如能升破7.8至7.93元（depends on用周線圖或日線圖看）會是一個非常好的突破形態，惟須知道此股稍為落後應是因中國概念比重相對不高
中視金橋（６２３）：如能升破2.98至3元又是非常好的突破；在基本面方面看，為央視作廣告代理具消費概念及有獨特性、業績好、估值低、加上管理層今年也是積極回購也顯著利好
You sir你好，第一次過來打招呼！
回覆刪除原來You sir也對999有興趣呢！我星期五也買入了999，如你所說，7.8-7.93是個N頂的阻力區，唯一是搏其經過長達9個月的收集後得以破頂，而且還要中港零售大旺這個慨念繼續炒上去配合。
可留意沒有賭棉花價格(囤棉花)的紡織股.
回覆刪除國內股市今日急速下跌，形勢仍然非常熊，小心小心
回覆刪除不過同意 YOU Sir 所講，仍然有不少板塊跑出，只要避開跑輪板塊，盡量選動力股，市場仍然有一少亮點
Long HSI Jul Put 22,000
回覆刪除I concur with 達人兄 and turn cautious again because the A share index has just unexpectedly broken down the supportive level.
勝哥：歡迎到訪！不過IT今天的股價表現不是太好，目前仍是luxury consumer good顯著跑出
回覆刪除Cup sir: You made a good observation and I will try to spare time to investigate further on it.
You Sir ,謝謝你詳細分析^^
回覆刪除我仲吼緊 168 同 506 tim，但味千今日被洗倉，令我又有些擔心，大陸食品好似信唔過咁....
回覆刪除達人兄：在這樣的市況中，食品股等consumer staple反成資金避免難所。國企股有關的風險會較少，尤其是百年字號青島啤
回覆刪除花花：多謝來訪！
回覆刪除YOU SIR
回覆刪除1880好貴,向上望不多,為何不738? 我無貨,希望係唔好的市況,可以在20MA價買入.
Kelvin:主要是短線相對走勢的考慮。然而，從往績、品牌地位等看，百麗絕對是貴得有道理；往國內百貨公司看，百麗品牌的女裝鞋的價錢是明顯高一截。我並非不喜歡７３８，當股價稍為回調時，我會有興趣再買入的
回覆刪除今天不出博文，簡單回顧今天操作：
回覆刪除今天牛刀小試，買入恆指7月22000 Put。今早見國內Ａ跌急跌，自６月中的反彈趨勢全遭破壞。惟手頭上持股的表現okay，不想胡亂沽出持股，便嘗試買入put作對沖。大盤下跌可抵消部份損失，大盤上升的話期權金損失相對組合規模是一個低水平，等同買一個保險。這操作的風險是恆指在結算時被挾高
國內股市的走勢突然又轉得很兇險，且板塊跌幅全面，反映市場對硬著陸憂慮增加；這勢必拖累港股表現
此外，今天組合跌約0.2%，表現算是不俗
回覆刪除You Sir，會不會考慮買國指put做對沖instead of恆指？
回覆刪除多謝勝哥提點，我是因擔心A股的熊走勢而對沖，那國指較恆指是更好的工具。我只是稍為擔心國指期權的差價會高了點。
回覆刪除cancel off the LP position with little loss incurred
回覆刪除Only action These two days are acquired some 700 and 712 this morning.
回覆刪除tontongood: 712 has a good growth story, but its TA is not so convincing. I think Tencent is a good bet. If you like IT stocks, you can keep an eye on Kingdee (268) too.
回覆刪除千萬不要說提點，交流交流罷了！今天國內股市雖然上升，但成交及走勢都未夠convincing，港股則鞭鞭有力，怪哉！
回覆刪除You兄, 點睇1899? 死得好無辜
回覆刪除勝哥：今天升市是由中移動及內銀等帶動，其他板塊升幅尚未是十分全面
回覆刪除CHAN：受收緊銀根及基建投資見頂影響，市場不看好貨車業前景，是故１８９９亦落後大市
You 蛇，隻 1728 你目標價係幾多，今日升到我有 D 驚 :D
回覆刪除１７２８破位暫時就唔理咁多了，除非走勢上有明顯的見頂訊號。１１１４的走勢可作１１７２８的參考，因１７２８主要是代理寶馬、Audi等汽車
回覆刪除Thanks，咁一於等佢抄爆先算
回覆刪除To tontongood: This is for your reference. This report is from Yuanta Securities.
回覆刪除Comtec Solar (712 HK)
Earnings outlook ridden with challenges
Downgrading Comtec to HOLD We downgrade Comtec based on: 1) the delayed ramp-up of its new 400MW capacity in Haian due to power shortages, leading to a revised shipments estimate of only 410MW for 2011, vs. previous guidance of 700MW; and 2) our 7.4 ppt downward revision to our GM forecast for 2011 on faster than expect wafer ASP decline in 2Q11. Accordingly, we significantly reduce our EPS forecast by 62% for 2011 and by 52% for 2012, and cut our TP to HK$3.50.
Consensus EPS has significant downside risk: We see significant downside risk to the Bloomberg consensus EPS of RMB0.35 for 2011F and RMB0.51 for 2012, as consensus has yet to factor in the delayed ramping-up of Comtec’s Haian capacity, as well as the sharp ASP decline in 2Q11, in our view. Our new EPS estimates are 49% and 31% lower than consensus for 2011 and 2012, respectively.
Potential threat from mono casting: We are positive on the development of a new process for ingot casting - quasi-mono ingot casting - which we anticipate is close to commercialization. This new production process can be retrofitted to current multi-crystalline furnaces, and poses a threat to current pure mono producers as it allows high-efficiency, near mono-crystalline ingots to be produced at a similar cost to multi-crystalline ingots. As a result, we believe Comtec needs to accelerate its shift from P-type mono wafers to their N-type counterparts in order to maintain its margin. Current guidance suggests that out of the 410MW of total shipments expected for 2011, only 50-100MW will be N-type mono wafers.
Thanks You Sir, will take a close look at it.
回覆刪除