歐債危機擴散、美國復甦無以為繼，牛去熊來的機會逾來逾大；大家的確須為提前來臨的又一個經濟及股市低潮期作準備。
今天開市見市況還好，買入山水水泥（６９１）、下午見YGM(375)失守升軌，予以減持、收市前買入具防守性的數碼通（３１５）。目前持股如下：
| Luk Fook(590) | 12.3% |
| Gome(493) | 11.7% |
| YGM(375) | 9.8% |
| Biostime(1112) | 9.8% |
| Shanshui cement(691) | 8.3% |
| Galaxy entertainment(27) | 7.3% |
| Overseas Oceans(81) | 7.3% |
| Belle(1880) | 6.0% |
| Evergrande(3333) | 5.9% |
| Smartone(315) | 5.8% |
| Cash | 15.7% |
之前兩天組合逆市企穩，但今天輪到強勢股被洗倉，組合今天追跌2%。但計數８月份頭四天組合居然仍有微利，實在慶幸。就算是熊市重臨，也無大不了；經金融海嘯的洗禮後，自問應對風險的能力有改善；自今年初熊踪初現後，我對操作手法及組合表現還是大致滿意的。
目前無意執行大撤退計劃。正如早前文章所言，即使是熊市，市場上似乎還有不少綠洲板塊，如奢侈消費品、澳門股、食品股、甚至乎太陽能及水泥股等等。即使在這個市況，我也看到一些有趣投資主題的股份（不計那些熱炒股）。目前選擇局部性出擊策略，但要以審慎操作為原則：（一）保持較高的現金水平（目前１６％的現金水平還是稍為偏低）、（二）更加注重買入點及止蝕止賺操作，買入要審慎、沽出要果斷（友blog ＣＵＰ對買入點的掌握值得學習）、（三）只買入接近高位的強勢股。還要留意不是所有綠洲板塊均能維持至整段熊市，假若歐洲的經濟危機波及中國的實體經濟，很多消費股應該會支持不住。
我想熊市中還是要調整心態，以保本代替進取；這樣會減少因時機或選股不對而被套的機會，從而保存戰鬥力。
現把我在０８年底金融海嘯後在Yahoo舊blog的災後檢討重貼，為自己應對可能重現的熊市作提點：
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!dDLWvl.ZFQHA2eb9TMVL_APODSs-/article?mid=3348
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!dDLWvl.ZFQHA2eb9TMVL_APODSs-/article?mid=3369
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!dDLWvl.ZFQHA2eb9TMVL_APODSs-/article?mid=3378
http://hk.myblog.yahoo.com/jw!dDLWvl.ZFQHA2eb9TMVL_APODSs-/article?mid=3407
I too believe that we can trade our way out of this mess, but judging from the horrible us and europe markets I guess I need to take some loss tomorrow and raise my cash level further more.
回覆刪除tontongood: take it easy, I think it would be acceptable if we could limit the total loss to 20% (from bull market peak) throughout the whole bear market.
回覆刪除剛剛看美國那邊, 一片愁雲慘霧, 明天再被血洗應該已經是不可避免了, 情形令人絕望, 不知行情能不能在絕望中產生呢? 還是要就此邁入熊市?
回覆刪除yfchan:目前步入熊市的機會大於５０％，美國經濟有再次進入衰退之勢，加上歐債危機未能受控，已是足夠理由。反之，投資者擔憂的中國危機，暫時卻未出現
回覆刪除我目前的目標是有秩序地撤退，把損失減至最低；我們身經百戰，應該能做到這個目標
我目前的操作準則是跌破上升軌／支持位便要沽出，看來明天又有些持股要說再見了
我的初步預案是沽189, 加315和270.
回覆刪除渣打, 東亞及長和業績並不是特別差, 但也不能穩住市場, 外圍又惡劣, 不說進入熊市, 但中短期確實看不到利好消息, 可能最可靠的還是黃金. 六福本來也有興趣, 但現在不大敢買, 2840似乎值得做為鎮倉, 但又怕悶, 而且沒有息收.
其實今年和熊市的確沒有大分別.
回覆刪除Cup Sir: The current market development shares some similarities with that in 2008.
回覆刪除Chan Sir: Unfortunately you have extend and fine-tune you retreat plan. May be we’ve to get used to holding more cash.
After yesterday’s US market tumble, I think there is no more argument about whether this is bull/bear. Today I will stick to discipline and sell stocks which have fallen down the uptrend and substantially raise my cash level.
回覆刪除Nonetheless, it is unwise to clear off all stock position under market chaos when the market open. I guess the market shall open low and then rebound slightly. Therefore we’ve to gauge the appropriate selling time. For some stocks, I may give some time to observe their relative strength. I may also consider adding some defensive plays as I don’t want to completely retreat under such a market panic. Don’t forget a probable QE3 may trigger a bear market rebound.
sell 375, 3333, 1112 & 1880
回覆刪除sell 27
回覆刪除sell 590 also
回覆刪除我仲加注了 1880 tim ~_~
回覆刪除Cash level raised to 45% now, don't want to sell more under this kind of situation.
回覆刪除Tontongood: many of the stocks have reached my compulsory stop loss level. I’m holding around 60% plus cash and I think I should stop selling for today. Too drastic change do little to help portfolio. I may even add one defensive play depending on the situation after European open at 3:00 pm.
回覆刪除今天沽189, 493, 1112, 873, 加315, 270, 536, 本已經沽809, 下午又買回了部份. 現金提升到30%以上.
回覆刪除真是慘痛的一天,