我認為Ｓ＆Ｐ把美國的３Ａ信用評級除去，就如國王的新衣童話故事中，指出國王沒穿衣服的小孩一樣。簡要看法如下：
－ 有說法指金融機構的CAR（資本充足率）是以其指有的債券評級作計算。若大量金融機構持有的美債被降評級，會造成它們的CAR下降甚至乎不夠，造成新一資金緊縮。不過，這個看法需要一些量化分析支持
－ 信貸評級被下調，或多或少總會影響企業的融資成本，對本已疲弱的美國經濟再加壓力
－ 美元將下跌、黃金價格上升、股票市場近日的跌幅應尚未完全反映這個利淡因素
－ 當市場震盪過後，對中國是一個好的掘起機會。美國在環球金融領導作用下降，和美國及歐盟相比，即使計及中國的潛在風險，中國仍是相對較穩健經濟；人民幣的地位勢必提升，亦加速人民幣國際化的進程
－ 以往美債被視為無風險資產，所以過往西方國家出現金融震盪，資金回流美債；造成經濟基調較佳的亞太區（尤其是香港）的股市跌幅往往會大於風眼核心的美國。以後這種荒謬情況或會改變
星期一會先觀察各種資產市場的訊號再作行動，惟美國被降評級是從未試過，暫時傾向再度減磅
Not a good indicator for the market open this morning
回覆刪除Israeli Stock Index Tumbles Most Since 2008
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/israeli-stocks-tumble-most-since-november-2008-on-u-s-rating-cut-europe.html
Greenspan Sees Stocks Falling After S&P Cut
回覆刪除http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/greenspan-says-markets-to-take-a-while-to-bottom-out-u-s-bonds-safe-.html
Big Foreign Buyers Likely to Stick With Treasuries Despite Downgrade
http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-08-07/biggest-foreign-buyers-to-stick-with-treasuries-after-downgrade.html
有一點睇唔通既係恆指PE，熊市好少會係咁低既恆指PE開始發生
回覆刪除sell 493
回覆刪除Most of the expected bad news surfaced, I do nothing this morning waiting quietly for a rebound.
回覆刪除匿名: I’ve checked that the PE of Hang Seng Index in NOT 2010 peak was 15.4x. Though this valuation was not excessively demanding, but definitely this was not a bargain valuation. More importantly, the global economic outlook has deteriorated significantly in recent months.
回覆刪除tontongood: Yes the market may be oversold but in this volatile market I think we should keep at least 50% cash
buy 590
回覆刪除buy 27
回覆刪除add 81 before market close
回覆刪除So many monies flowing around in the market...where are they now and where will they go after these series of panic selling? Is US bond/gold the right place to hide?
回覆刪除撈底？歐美股市仍然下瀉中。
回覆刪除CUP: I am behaving much more prudent in this bear run with cash position still staying at 60%. As mentioned, I'll strictly keep my minimum cash position at 50%. I think that’s reasonable to build light speculative position on some technically strong stocks when the market is such oversold, especially that I were shaken off of GOME (493) this morning.
回覆刪除DOW is now plunging 280 points, and NASDAQ sinks 3.2% now......
回覆刪除Cup sir:
回覆刪除Tonight's sell off may be caused by this announcement:
http://finance.yahoo.com/news/SampP-to-review-ratings-for-apf-1344749763.html;_ylt=Anh0_pOgkyWT4ZTQN8Xbgw67YWsA;_ylu=X3oDMTEzMmYwc2U1BHBvcwMyBHNlYwNicmVha2luZ05ld3MEc2xrA3JlYWRtb3Jl?x=0
May be I've to admit that I'was trapped by the market this time. But you know it's hard to resist the temptation to bottom fish, especially that the market was severely oversold and I only commit a small proportion of funds for bottom fishing.
想請教1下....
回覆刪除如果用越升破越買 gee 方法 泥買 1818 or 2840
到恆指反升時, 金價會吾會跌呢???
金價其實係咪好難大跌 ga lee??
謝謝大大!!
第三個CD-ROM
CD-COM:現時黃金很大機會跑贏大市，也是可取的資金避難港；但佔資產比重不宜太多，及買入不宜太進取。始終黃金不是生息資產，且目前美債價格上升，反映投資者並未因其降級而對美債信心崩潰
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