政策上的微妙轉變

歐洲政府已明確表態要加強應付歐債危機的力度，尤其是加強強化銀行資本，及為較弱的歐債國家的債劵發行提供擔保等等。以下節錄這篇bloomberg報導的重點：

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-15/g-20-tells-europe-to-deal-decisively-with-debt-crisis-at-oct-23-summit.html

Europe Crisis Plan Wins Global Backing

Europe’s revamped strategy to beat its two-year sovereign debt crisis won the backing of global finance chiefs, who urged the region’s leaders to deal “decisively” with the turmoil when they meet for emergency talks in a week’s time.

European officials yesterday outlined the initiatives they’re considering at a meeting in Paris of finance ministers and central bankers from the Group of 20 economies. With the continent’s fiscal woes rattling financial markets and threatening the world economy, governments were urged to complete the plan at their Oct. 23 summit in Brussels and to tame the threat of contagion by maximizing the firepower of their 440 billion-euro ($611 billion) bailout fund.

Europe’s strategy, which has still to be made public, currently includes writing down Greek bonds by as much as 50 percent, establishing a backstop for banks and multiplying the strength of the newly-enhanced European Financial Stability Facility, people familiar with the matter said Oct. 14. Optimism the crisis may soon be tamed spurred stocks higher last week and pushed the euro to its biggest gain against the dollar in more than two years.


In the works is a five-point plan foreseeing a solution for Greece, bolstering of the EFSF rescue fund, fresh capital for banks, a new push to boost competitiveness and consideration of European treaty amendments to tighten economic management.

Options Discussed

Options include tweaking a July accord struck with investors for a 21 percent net-present-value reduction in Greek debt holdings. One variant would take that reduction up to 50 percent, the people said.

Under a more aggressive proposal, investors would exchange Greek bonds for new debt at a lower face value collateralized by the euro area’s AAA-rated rescue fund, the people said. The ultimate option is a restructuring involving writedowns without collateral, they said.

The bank-aid model under discussion is to set up a European-level backstop capitalized by the rescue fund, the people said. It would have the power to take direct equity stakes in banks and provide guarantees on bank liabilities.

Officials are considering seven ways of multiplying the strength of Europe’s temporary rescue fund. The options break down into two broad categories: enabling it to borrow from theEuropean Central Bank or using it to partly insure new bonds issued by distressed governments. The ECB has all but ruled out the first method, making bond insurance more likely, the people said.

EFSF Guarantees

EFSF guarantees of new bonds might range from 20 percent to 30 percent, a person familiar with those deliberations said. Recourse to bond insurance suggests the central bank will need to maintain its secondary-market purchases for an unspecified “interim” period, people said.

對歐洲政府能否澈底解決金融危機還有保留，尤其是解決意大利及西班牙的潛在危機，須更大量的財政資源及承擔；要協調各國的矛盾並不容易。也可參看陶冬博士的觀點：

欧洲的形势，就未必有股价反弹那么乐观了。银行股在被连续沽空两个月后，出现技术性反弹再正常不过，但是银行资本金不足、流动性短缺的局面并未得到实质性的改善。德法领袖、EU与ECB终于意识到欧债危机一拖再拖的后果是银行危机。他们承诺尽快提出解决方案，但是利益错位这块绊脚石根本没有消失。法国希望以EFSF为主体救银行，德国就不同意；EU（欧盟）提出将EFSF增杠杆来稳定市场，ECB（欧央行）则不答应。这些攻防的背后，是谁来买单的问题。笔者对欧洲全力救银行并不看好，不排除11月G20峰会前，欧债危机再次触发市场动荡。而且政府现在逼迫私人投资者“自愿”对希腊国债减债五成，对银行资本直接构成打击。


但可以肯定的是，在一至兩星期內，歐盟正式推出更大規模救市方案前；市場的憧憬會令市場的反彈得以維持。


關於中國，中央明確表態要支持中小企：

国务院出台支持小型微型企业发展政策

http://finance.sina.com.cn/focus/xiaoweiqiye2011/index.shtml#

當中不乏實質政策，例如對中小企貸款，可以有更寬容的存貸比率及資本金加權比重的。

這些可能是早前文章等待黎明三大訊號中的政策轉折點。走勢形態上熊市很少會在一次大插下完結，且我不相信歐債危機會這麼容易解決（至少須有一些國家退出，或終有力量驅使歐洲國家改善財政紀律）。但投資不應太死抱某一看法，太死牛或死熊。我主要看的三大風險胃納指標：美匯（尤其是澳元）、銅、及港股反彈的市場寬度等，今次反彈的力度可以很強。我仍傾向目前是熊市反彈，但仍會適量略為增持股票；以免被大盤拋離太多，及防範自己看錯的風險。